Making Sense of Hunter Dozier’s Wild Start to the Season
The Kansas City Royals have gotten off to a terrible start to the 2022 season, but the same can't be said for Hunter Dozier. The 30-year-old is thriving at the plate.
Dozier is putting together a season comparable to his 2019 breakout year, as he has plenty of statistical similarities between the two. A few of the only notable differences are his career-high wRC+ of 126 and both his K% and BB% taking a dive in the process. This leads to the oddity of Dozier's season.
Apr 19, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Hunter Dozier (17) celebrates after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins in the sixth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Starting with his K% and BB% is just the tip of the iceberg for this season. Dozier is putting up career lows in each stat, with a K% of 22.5 and a BB% of 6. He's hitting the ball more as he's striking out less, but he also isn't as patient as he normally has been.
Let's look at his hit ball profile to see how he has improved in 2022. For the most part, Dozier is league average in most of his batted balls. Compared to his previous seasons, however, he is pulling the ball a lot more and getting more barrels. Last season, Dozier pulled the ball 37.5% of the time and barrelled the ball at an 8.8% clip. This year, he's pulling at a 48.6% rate and barrelling at a 12.1% rate.
To put this into the perspective of the whole league, Dozier is actually in the top 30 with his barrel rate. He is currently 26th in the league, surrounded by stars such as Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. With that in mind, let's dive a little deeper into Dozier's approach at the plate.
Dozier is putting up some more odd numbers, for his standards, when it comes to making contact and what he swings at. One number that stands out in his plate discipline numbers is his O-Swing%, which is the percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone. It's 37.1, a career-high for him. He's making a lot of contact on those attempts, with an O-Contact% of 54.5.
May 13, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Kansas City Royals third baseman Hunter Dozier (17) taps a foul ball with his bat during the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Two more numbers that stand out are Dozier's CStr% and his CSW% (called and swinging-strike percentages). Both of these numbers are at career lows. Dozier's CStr% of 14 and CSW% of 28.3 are due to him being more aggressive this season.
Dozier is starting to follow another Royals player with this season's approach: Salvador Perez, but to a less extreme extent. Last year, Perez's O-Swing% was 48.3 and his O-Contact% was 55.9, while his CStr% and CSW% were 9.6 and 27.6, respectively. Dozier is having a similar mindset this season, but he's still walking more and striking out less than Perez did in 2021.
This boom-or-bust approach for Dozier has helped him out but if he wants to sustain this start to the season, he needs to be slightly more patient and take more walks. One last thing to point out is that he's putting up zero Outs Above Average on defense, which is a career-high at every position he plays except first base.
With the Royals potentially looking to be sellers already, Dozier could be on the block as a potential DH option for teams. He has a team-friendly contract and if a club really wanted to put him on the field, he can play just about anywhere (his defensive competence is another story).
Dozier's season has been an enigma, as he's swinging at more pitches than ever while not striking out or walking. He ranks among the league's best in barrelling the ball, too. This doesn't make a lot of sense, but at least one thing does: His defense will never be proficient. Fortunately for him, his production at the plate is keeping him in the lineup as a mainstay.
