The Storylines That Will Define the Brewers-Padres NLDS Matchup

The Brewers-Padres National League Division Series has plenty of intriguing narratives. The best team in baseball (the 103-win Brewers) will face off against the hottest team in baseball (the Padres have won 19 of their past 22). Neither franchise has won the World Series, and both have strong home field advantages and extremely loud crowds.

But let’s not kid ourselves. One narrative looms above all: Can San Diego beat Milwaukee breakout ace Jacob Misiorowski?

Misiorowski is a wonder. He can throw 103 mph with a 105-mph perceived velocity because of his extension. The Brewers were 22–8 when he took the mound. One of those losses? A 3–1 defeat to the Padres on May 13. Misiorowski threw seven shutout innings and left leading 1–0. San Diego scored three in the ninth against Abner Uribe.

That’s the Padres’ path to victory: keep the game close and take your chances with a bullpen game.

San Diego may have to do that twice in this series against Misiorowski. He has made 38 of his 44 career starts on at least five days of rest, six on four days and none on three. And yet Milwaukee has not ruled out bringing him back on three days of rest in Game 4 if it is trailing 2–1. A Game 5 start is certainly probable. We’re a long way from that—let’s see how Misiorowski comes out of Game 1—but the idea is at least on the table.

Here are other keys to the series:

The Gas Companies

These two teams threw more 100 mph pitches than any team in recorded history, though the Brewers threw 60% more than any team!

Most 100 mph Pitches by a Team in One Season Since 2008

Team	100 mph Pitches
1. 2026 Brewers	1,206
2. 2026 Padres	753
3. 2018 Cardinals	673
4. 2026 Dodgers	574

The Brewers have the highest average four-seam velocity of any playoff team since tracking began in 2008.

Highest Average Four-Seam Fastball Velocity Since 2008

Team	Avg. Four-Seam Fastball Velocity
1. 2026 Pirates	96.3
2. 2026 Marlins	96.2
3. 2026 Brewers	96.1
4. 2026 Mariners	96.0
5. 2026 Phillies	95.8
6. 2026 Dodgers	95.7
7. 2025 Rays	95.7

Which makes for a great matchup given how well the Padres hit elite velocity.

Best Hitting Teams vs. 95+ mph, Second Half

Team
1. Padres	.303
2. Brewers	.282
3. Rockies	.269

“Win Our Way”

It’s the Brewers’ motto. They zag while everyone else zigs.

103+ Wins With More SB Than HR

Team	Outcome
1942 Cardinals	Won WS
1942 Dodgers	Second in NL
1975 Reds	Won WS
2001 Mariners	Lost ALCS
2026 Brewers	?

The Brewers hit the fewest home runs (154) to win 103+ games since the 1986 Mets (148).

Brewers 2026 MLB Ranks


Opposite field hitting %	1
Groundball %	1
Bunt hits	2
Bunt attempts	2
Runs per game	2
Singles	3
Home runs	28

The past six World Series champions all ranked in the top four in home runs. No World Series champion has ranked in the bottom half in home runs since the 2015 Royals.

The Fall Guys

Lowest Postseason Win% by Franchise

Team	Win %
28. Brewers	25–38; .397
29. Cubs	51–81; 386
30. Twins	36–59; .379

The Droughts

Most Postseason Games Without World Series Title

Team	Number of Games
Padres	64
Rays	64
Brewers	63
Mariners	51
Rockies	24

The Brewers are the only franchise to come within one win of a title without winning one.

Longest Wait for First World Series Title

Team	Seasons
Philadelphia Phillies	77 (1903-1979)
St. Louis Browns/Baltimore Orioles	63 (1903-1965)
Milwaukee Brewers	57 (1969-)
San Diego Padres	57 (1969-)

Longest World Series Championship Drought by City

Team	MLB Seasons	Last
Cleveland	77	1948
Milwaukee	64	1957
San Diego	57	Never
Seattle	50	Never

The Jackson Two

Pat Murphy believes Jackson Chourio is the key to the Milwaukee lineup. Jackson Merrill has been heating up for San Diego. The two Jacksons have much in common.

	Chourio	Merrill
Age	22	23
Contract	8 years, $84M	10 years, $156M
Debut	March 29, 2024	March 20, 2024
Games	406	429
WAR	10.9	10.6
HR	67	66
Avg.	.278	.270

The M&M Boys

Adrian Morejón and Mason Miller bring 100+ mph heat to the endgame of Padres manager Craig Stammen. How often does Stammen push them to go more than one inning?

Morejón, a harder-throwing Andrew Miller weapon, has gone more than three outs 25 times, including eight outings of two innings. Mason Miller has gone more than three outs nine times, including two outings of two innings.

They could easily combine to eat up the final nine outs of a game.

Highest Four-Seam Velocity, Innings 7–9 Since 2008

Team	mph
1. 2026 Phillies	97.1
2. 2026 Padres	96.8
3. 2026 Marlins	96.6
4. 2025 Rockies	96.6

Lowest Batting Average Allowed, Innings 8–9 Since 2008
(Full seasons)


1. 2023 Yankees	.140
2. 2012 Braves	.151
3. 2017 Red Sox	.154
4. 2024 Yankees	.155
5. 2026 Rays	.173
6. 2026 Padres	.174

The First Basemen

Both teams feature veteran first basemen having career years after signing minor league contracts.

Milwaukee’s Jake Bauers turns 31 on Tuesday. Bauers nearly quit after hitting .199 in the 2024 season. His wife was going to go back to work, but she got pregnant, and Bauers likes to say he decided to keep playing to have health care coverage for his family.

He signed with the Brewers on a minor league contract and made the roster. He hit .235 in 85 games in 2025. Then made changes in his setup and swing (more upright, no drift with his head) and broke out this year. A career .365 slugger entering this season, Bauers slugged .484.

Ty France, 32, couldn’t find a big league job after hitting .257 with seven home runs last season across three teams and winning a Gold Glove. He signed a minor league deal with the Padres in the middle of February, just as camps opened. He was to compete for the first base job with Miguel Andújar, Gavin Sheets and Nick Castellanos. He absolutely raked in spring. Five days before opening day, he was told he made the team, with a salary of $1.35 million. France, 32, hit a career high 21 home runs.

Largest Increase in Slug, MLB 2026 from 2025


1. Jordan Walker, Cardinals	.466; + .160
2. Ty France, Padres	.502; +.142

The Ray-Skubal Connection

The Cy Young winners have a connection. Padres Game 1 starter Robbie Ray never really had a good changeup. He is a supinator, not a pronator, so he had trouble turning the ball over. After the 2024 season, when he threw zero changeups, Ray texted Skubal to inquire about how he threw his changeup. Skubal, also a supinator with a similar arm slot, learned how to throw his changeup without pronation and it became one of the best pitches in baseball.

Skubal responded by giving Ray instructions, videos, pictures and drills on how to throw the changeup. Ray in return gave Skubal tips on throwing the slider.

The changeup—a pitch Ray didn’t even throw two years ago—now grades out as Ray’s best pitch.

Ray Changeup Use

	Pct.	Avg.	SLG
2014-2024	3.1%	.310	.570
2025-2026	15.7%	.200	.319

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