Five Realistic Tarik Skubal Trade Packages We Made With a Value Simulator

Tthe Tigers fell to 50–57 on Monday due to an ill-timed three-game losing streak that put them 4 1/2 games back in the American League wild-card race, and the chatter around a possible Tarik Skubal blockbuster at the trade deadline has returned to the spotlight.

Any hope that Detroit could play its way back into the AL playoff picture is fading fast, and the front office may not need much more convincing that it’s finally time to pull the trigger on a Skubal trade with the MLB trade deadline just one week away.

With Skubal on an expiring contract, the Tigers won’t be able to net the haul of prospects they would’ve if they’d simply gotten this deal done last season. Still, a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber won’t be cheap for any team interested in bringing him aboard––of which there will be many. A two-time Cy Young winner at just 29 years old, Skubal will be highly sought-after ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline, even as a rental. It’s expected that he’ll test free agency in the offseason, rather than sign an extension with a team that trades for him, so teams will have to gauge just how much they’re willing to sacrifice to have Skubal in their starting rotation for a few months.

Using the trade simulator at Baseball Trade Values, we concocted the five below trade packages for Skubal. They were each rated as “moderate overpays” by the teams acquring Skubal—which makes sense if Detroit is going to be convinced to trade its ace.

Note: All prospect rankings are according to MLB Pipeline.

Dodgers

Dodgers receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: OF Zyhir Hope (Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect), LHP Zach Root (No. 10, No. 3 pitching), LHP Adam Serwinowski (No. 12, No. 5 pitching)

The Dodgers are looking to complete the three-peat in October, and could look to improve their chances at doing so by acquiring the crown jewel of the trade market in Skubal. With Shohei Ohtani out of the rotation, at least temporarily, and Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell both working their way back from injuries, Skubal could help anchor the injury-riddled Dodgers rotation during the second half of the season before pitching some critical October innings as the team contends for a World Series.

With Skubal being a rental, the Dodgers may not be willing to part ways with their best prospects, but Hope is still very highly rated, coming in at No. 25 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. At Double A this season, the 21-year-old owns a .890 OPS with 21 home runs and 84 RBIs in 90 games. Root, 22, is at High A this season and has pitched to a 2.40 ERA in 15 starts, while Serwinowski has a 5.48 ERA in Double A but has struck out 110 batters across 88 2/3 innings.

Braves

Braves receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: RHP Didier Fuentes, SS Alex Lodise (Braves’ No. 5 prospect)

The Braves have cooled off quite a bit from their torrid start to the season, but they’re still very much in contention for the World Series. A blockbuster trade for Skubal would be a potentially season-altering move for Atlanta, and he would form a devastating pairing atop their rotation alongside Chris Sale. With myriad injuries impacting the Braves’ starting pitching depth this season, going all-in on a trade for Skubal would give them the best shot at competing with the Dodgers and Brewers in October.

To land Skubal, the Braves would need to send Didier Fuentes to the Tigers. Fuentes, 21, is already in MLB, pitching out of Atlanta’s bullpen, but he’s a starter by trade. This season, he’s made 35 appearances and owns an impressive 2.70 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings. Fuentes has an elite fastball and added a slider to his arsenal this season which has been effective. In addition to Fuentes, the Braves would send shortstop Alex Lodise, the team’s No. 5 prospect, to Detroit. Lodise, 22, has a .826 OPS at Single A this year with 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and 15 steals across 94 games.

Rays

Rays receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: C Caden Bodine (Rays’ No. 3 prospect), RHP Brody Hopkins (Rays’ No. 5 prospect, No. 1 pitching)

The Rays haven’t often moved very aggressively at the trade deadline in years past, but with the team looking to fend off the Yankees and end the season as the top squad in the American League, they may be willing to make a big splash for Skubal to add a true ace to their rotation. Tampa Bay is still seeking its first World Series title, and this year may be their best chance to achieve that goal. The Rays should be looking to capitalize on a weakened AL by further separating themselves from the pack with a big acquisition of Skubal. A trio of Skubal, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan in October would have Rays fans feeling plenty confident heading into October.

To make a deal work, the Rays would need to send two of the top five prospects from its loaded farm system to Detroit. Catcher Caden Bonine has been lighting it up at the plate across three minor-league levels this season, where he’s recorded a .947 OPS with 10 home runs and 72 RBIs. Impressively, he’s struck out just 22 times in 83 games while drawing 35 walks. Starting pitcher Brody Hopkins, the Rays’ top pitching prospect, should be MLB ready next season. At Triple A this year, he’s logged a 4.63 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings.

Cubs

Cubs receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: INF Jefferson Rojas (Cubs’ No. 2 prospect), RHP Jaxon Wiggins (No. 6, No. 1 pitching), SS Ty Southisene (No. 13)

If the Cubs are serious about competing this year, they’ll need to address their pitching rotation. Injuries have decimated their rotation, with Cade Horton set to miss the remainder of the season and Justin Steele still working his way back to the mound. Chicago is in dire need of a top-tier arm at this year’s trade deadline, and who better to pursue than the best pitcher on the market? Skubal would instantly improve the Cubs’ outlook, providing them with the true ace the rotation has lacked for a while.

In this scenario, the Cubs give Detroit a package headlined by infielder Jefferson Rojas. Rojas has impressed at Double A this season with a .805 OPS, 15 home runs, 57 RBIs and 15 stolen bases across 85 games. Additionally, right-handed pitcher Jaxon Wiggins, the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, would be included. Wiggins, 24, has made just nine starts this year after missing two months with an elbow injury, and he’s been a bit rusty in his return. Last year, however, he logged a 2.19 ERA across three minor-league levels and struck out 97 batters in 78 innings. The final piece of the deal is 21-year-old shortstop Ty Southisene, the Cubs’ No. 13 prospect. Southisene is a pure contact hitter. He hasn’t hit a single home run in his career in the minors, but he’s batting .302 across two minor-league levels this year and has 30 stolen bases in 62 games.

Brewers

Brewers receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: RHP Brandon Sproat, INF Jett Williams (Brewers’ No. 5 prospect), RHP Josh Knoth (No. 11, No. 3 pitching), RHP Quinn Priester

The Brewers are legitimate contenders, and this could be their best chance to win their first World Series title by adding Skubal to a rotation already consisting of NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski and breakout stars Kyle Harrison and Logan Henderson. Bringing Skubal to Milwaukee would give the Brewers MLB’s best postseason rotation and further supplement their case to represent the National League in the World Series.

To get a deal done, the Brewers would likely need to deal Brandon Sproat to the Tigers. Sproat, who came to Milwaukee in last offseason’s Freddy Peralta trade, is 25 years old and already pitching in MLB. Sproat was formerly the Mets’ No. 1 prospect. He owns a 5.05 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 92 2/3 innings this season, and has made 20 appearances, including 18 starts. Jett Williams would also head to Detroit in the deal. Williams, another ex-Mets prospect, is 22 years old and has a .726 OPS with nine home runs, 41 RBIs and 21 stolen bases in Triple A. Righties Josh Knoth and Quinn Priester, who has missed all of this season with a shoulder injury but won 13 games with a 3.32 ERA last year, would give Detroit two more potential starters.

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