The Numbers To Know For ALDS Matchup of Tigers vs. Mariners
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The Detroit Tigers held on and avenged their collapse in the A.L. Central at the end of the season, winning game three of the Wild Card series against long-time rivals, the Cleveland Guardians. The work isn't done, though, not even close for them, as now they will take on the Seattle Mariners in a best-of-five series.
As the two-seed, the Mariners had the advantage of being idle at home, watching the Tigers and Guardians beat up on each other, while getting some well-deserved rest. Now able to line up their pitching staff in whichever way they want, Detroit has to travel out West and play their fifth straight game of the playoffs on the road.
For the Tigers, though, this is just another step for them, and after being the best team in the MLB before the All-Star break, they should feel confident in their abilities. What do the analytics say about their chances, and what are the numbers to look for in the matchup?
Five Starters
While most teams in the MLB have two, three at most top-end starters, Seattle has the luxury of having five All-Star or better, quality starting pitchers. That alone gives them an advantage in the matchup and should make games less taxing on their bullpens. The order for the series could potentially go: Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo.
There will be no bullpen game for the Mariners, unlike Detroit, who could potentially be staring one down in game one, with Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty not expected to be ready for game one. Striking early will be key in the series.
Four Homeruns
Pitching isn't the only thing that the Mariners excel at. They have a lethal top-to-bottom offense, headlined by MVP candidate Cal Raleigh. The switch-hitting catcher hit 60 home runs this season and shattered the record for the most long balls by a catcher in a season.
Thankfully for the Tigers, though, he hasn't been too bad for them. He hit .174 against the Detroit's staff this season, which is his sixth-lowest batting average against every MLB team. In his career, however, he has four home runs against the current members of the Tigers' staff, a feat he has demonstrated this season. It will be tough to pitch around him, but limiting the long ball should be a priority.
Two Wins and Two Losses
This season, Detroit went 2-4 against Seattle, including being swept the second week of July in a series where they had a staggering -21 run differential. The argument can be made that it was the regular season, but both series came before the All-Star break, a time when the Tigers held the best record in the MLB.
Another shocking number from their two meetings this season was that two of Skubal's six losses this season came against the Mariners. In 10.2 innings pitched, they collected 10 hits, seven runs, five walks, and 13 strikeouts against Detroit's ace.
For the Tigers, Skubal will need to find success against a team he struggled against the most this season, for them to have a better chance of advancing to the next round of the MLB playoffs. The pressure isn't just on him, though; he needs members of the offense to step up and strike early, not allowing the lethal rotation of the Mariners to settle in.
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JD Andress is an accomplished sports writer and journalist with extensive experience covering a wide range of collegiate sports. JD has provided in-depth coverage of the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns. He looks forward to being part of the coverage of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. His experience spans various sports, including football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, rifle, equestrian, and others, reflecting his broad interest and commitment to sports journalism.