Tigers Troubling Numbers Show Major Offensive Regression in Second Half

Could the Detroit Tigers be headed down an ugly path this October?

Detroit Tigers second base Zach McKinstry (39) reacts after striking out against Minnesota Twins during the second inning at Comerica Park in Detroit in Tuesday, August 5, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers are a legitimate contender in a weak American League this October as they sit on the cusp of locking up their first division title in over a decade. It's been a special year in the Motor City, but it's also been one that was padded by an incredible first half that has propped up what's been a much less fruitful second half.

Detroit simply has looked like a different team than the one that saw six of its stars named to the All-Star game back in July, and the confidence from fans and media as to their ability to make a run has waned as a result.

The Tigers first half was marked by some of the best baseball of careers being played by unsung heroes who to that point had largely disappointed while playing for Detroit.

It's tough to sustain that kind of thing over a full season though, and as is so often the case with hot first halves out of nowhere, the Tigers have regressed.

In an article on Monday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic (subscription required) named the offensive regression as one of the main obstacles in Detroit potentially being able to get to the World Series.

"A hard truth: The lineup simply has not produced at the same rate that made Detroit the darling of the first half," Stavenhagen pointed out. "Since the All-Star break, the Tigers rank 18th with a .725 OPS. That goes a long way in explaining why the Tigers are 23-24 since the break."

Both Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez Are Struggling For Tigers

David Richard-Imagn Images

One of the main reasons Stavenhagen gave to explain why the offense has fallen so far has been the -- perhaps expected -- downfalls of both Zach McKinstry and Javier Baez. For Baez, while the positional versatility and ability to fill in center field through injuries to Parker Meadows and others has been admirable and helpful, his bat has not followed suit in the second half.

In the 35 games since the All-Star game -- where Baez started in center -- he has slashed a putrid .214/.217/.395 with one home run and 13 RBI. McKinstry hasn't been a whole lot better. In the first half, he slashed .285/.364/.472, but since then it's been a line of .223/.292/.392 in 42 games.

So much of the spectacular first half relied on guys outperforming their expected numbers, but eventually, in most cases, the chickens come home to roost over the course of a marathon of a season.

Such is the case with Detroit as of late, and while their chase for glory is not over by any means, it feels like a whole lot more of an uphill climb than it did before.

If the Tigers are going to make the kind of run this October it looked like for a long time they were capable of, Baez and McKinstry -- not to mention the rest of the lineup -- are going to have to do their best impression of the versions of themselves they were in the first half.