New Free Agency Projection Has Tigers Star Accepting Qualifying Offer

Now that the deadline for qualifying offers has passed, at least one set of experts expect the Detroit Tigers to get this All-Star infielder back.

The hat of a Detroit Tigers player during spring training. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

On Thursday, 13 Major League players were extended a qualifying offer. One was Detroit Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres.

He now has until Nov. 18 to determine if he will accept the qualifying offer of $22 million, which is the average of the Top 125 salaries in baseball. It would be a rarity to accept. The last player to do it was pitcher Nick Martinez last season with the Cincinnati Reds. He was just the 14th player to accept the offer since 2012.

One site, MLB Trade Rumors, has projected that Torres will be No. 15. The site ranked him as the No. 37 free agent and all four of its experts projected he would return to the Tigers on the offer. Their reasons? The draft pick compensation and the soft market at his position.

Why Gleyber Torres Could Stay with Tigers

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Up until Nov. 18, Torres and his agent can get feedback from other teams on his market and what he might receive. He signed with Detroit on a one-year, $15 million deal last offseason in part because he wanted to reset his market for this offseason. He was named an American League All-Star, but his slash tailed off a bit at the end of the season, and he finished .261/.332/.411 with 16 home runs and 74 RBI.

Teams will sometimes put the qualifying offer on players they know they’ll lose so they get something in return in draft picks. Torres falls into two different tiers, according to MLBTR. Non-Competitive Balance Tax teams would have to give up their third-highest draft pick in return for signing him. Teams that pay into the CBT must give up more — their second and fifth-highest picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money.

Knowing that cost up front, the money to Torres may not matter to his potential suitors. They may have to pass knowing that the sacrifice in draft picks and, perhaps international bonus money, is just too much. It could be that is what the Tigers are counting on and are willing to play the price — $22 million — to keep him for one more year.

The other indicator is the market at second base. MLBTR lists just two second baseman among its Top 50 free agents. The other is Jorge Polanco. The site projects he’ll get a three-year deal worth $42 million, an average annual value of $14 million. That is well below what Torres would get on the qualifying offer. Yet, MLBTR has Polanco ranked No. 23 and Torres ranked No. 37.

It's lining up like it is in Torres’ best interest to take the offer and stay with the Tigers, which should have the players to make another postseason run.