Updated Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds After Thrilling Win Over Chicago Cubs
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The Detroit Tigers found a way to come away with a series-opening victory over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field Monday night, with a final score of 8-6 in 10 innings. Detroit never trailed the Cubs, but the crowd at Wrigley made sure the momentum was on their side.
Down to the final out in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Tigers had Kenley Jansen on the mound facing off against Alex Bregman with the bases loaded. After falling 3-0, Jansen came back to strike Bregman out, sending the game into extra innings when it felt like the game was bound to be over.
Detroit would tack on three in the top of the 10th inning, thanks to clutch hits from Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson, pushing the lead to 8-5. The Cubs would get one back, but that was all she wrote.
These are the kinds of victories the Tigers weren't getting in the first half of the season. They'll take an early lead, but something slips through their fingers. This time around, the baseball gods were on Detroit's side, and it came in a big way when looking at their playoff standings.
Tigers Updated Playoff Odds
Now sitting at 47-53, the Tigers have passed the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Wild Card standings and are tied with the Houston Astros, sitting 4.5 games back. Detroit still has a lot of work to do, but they continue to chip away at their record, mainly plagued by a horrible month of May.
According to FanGraphs, the Tigers hold a 31.6% chance of making the playoffs, and even though they rank behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central standings, their odds are 8.9% better of finding a path to the playoffs.
When it comes to the AL Wild Card standings, Detroit holds a 15.8% chance of making the playoffs that way, as well as a 15.8% chance of winning the division.
Detroit still sits 6.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, as both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians are riding winning streaks. The Twins have lost three in a row. Over the course of the last 10 games, the Tigers also have the best record in the division, going 7-3.
Since July 1, the Tigers are 10-4 and have played much better baseball, enough to cause conflict in the front office over whether they should be buyers or sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. The Tarik Skubal trade debates fluctuate more nowadays than they have all season with the Tigers' climb.
If Detroit can find a way to win the series over Chicago, taking that momentum home to host the Kansas City Royals for three games and then the Baltimore Orioles for three games, the AL playoff picture could have a new contender rising in the ranks of relevancy.
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Dominic Minchella is a 2024 Eastern Michigan University graduate with a BA in Communications, Media, and Theatre Arts and a Journalism minor. He covers Major League Baseball for On SI and spends his free time watching games and sharing his insights.