3 Overreactions From the Twins' Frustrating Opening Day Defeat

The Twins' first game of 2026 looked...a lot like last season. It was almost too on the nose.

Joe Ryan was outstanding, holding the Orioles scoreless into the sixth inning. The Twins' offense generated some traffic on the bases, including getting the leadoff runner on in five of the first seven innings, but they went 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and grounded into three double plays. That's fitting for a lineup that had MLB's second-worst OPS with RISP (.671) in 2025.

And once Ryan exited and the bullpen got involved, a scoreless game unraveled a bit for the Twins. Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa combined to allow a pair of runs in the seventh inning, which held up for Baltimore in a 2-1 Twins loss.

It's just one game out of 162. There's a long, long way to go in the marathon of this season. But because it's the first real baseball we have to analyze, and because the Twins are off on Friday, let's dive into some overreactions from Thursday's opener.

1. Joe Ryan's new curveball has him poised for a massive year

Despite missing some time early in spring training with inflammation in his back, Ryan was in midseason form on Opening Day. The Twins' ace allowed just one single and two walks over 5.1 scoreless frames, striking out seven Orioles batters. He threw 85 pitches and generated 15 swings and misses.

Ryan's success always begins with his fastball, which gives hitters a hard time due to his low arm slot and the pitch's unusual rise. He touched 96 miles per hour in the first inning and averaged 94 for the day, which is about where he usually ends up. But it was a relatively new weapon for Ryan — his curveball — that was the star of the show on Thursday.

Last year, Ryan threw his curveball about 4 percent of the time, per Statcast. In his first start of 2026, it was his most-used secondary pitch. He threw 14 of them (or 16 percent of his pitches), half of which were either whiffs or called strikes. Six of his seven Ks came with the curveball.

Joe Ryan, Filthy Breaking Balls...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/2i0TykBP2v
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 26, 2026

If the curve continues to be a dangerous weapon for Ryan, he could be in for a huge season. He already has the excellent fastball, plus a splitter he mostly throws to lefties and a sharper slider.

With Pablo Lopez out, the Twins need Ryan to carry their rotation in 2026. He's off to a strong start.

2. Brooks Lee is not long for this lineup

It was a tough day for the Twins' entire lineup, which managed just a single run on five hits and four walks. But from the eye test, no one had a worse day than Lee, Minnesota's third-year shortstop. Hitting ninth, he was 0 for 3 with a pair of strikeouts that simply weren't all that competitive.

In the top of the second inning, Lee came up with the bases loaded and two outs against Orioles starter Trevor Rogers. It was an early opportunity to do some damage. Instead, he struck out on three pitches. Lee watched a cutter in the zone for strike one, fouled off a very low changeup for strike two, and chased a low curveball for strike three. Rogers made some good pitches, but it was a rough AB.

Leading off the fifth inning, Lee once again struck out without taking a ball, this time on five pitches. He watched strike one and then fouled off a few offerings before chasing another low offspeed pitch from Rogers. Lee's day at the plate ended with a first-pitch groundout to shortstop in the seventh.

My goodness Brooks Lee looks like he's got no clue at the plate.
— Cody Pirkl (@CodyPirkl) March 26, 2026

The first month or so of this season is huge for Lee, who is looking to prove that he's good enough to be the Twins' everyday shortstop. So far in his MLB career, the former No. 8 overall pick hasn't hit or played defense at an adequate level. Across 715 plate appearances, he's hit .231 with a .633 OPS. He also ranked 30th out of 33 shortstops last season (minimum 500 innings) in Defensive Runs Saved.

It's just one game, but if Lee continues to struggle, more and more eyes will turn towards Twins No. 2 prospect Kaelen Culpepper and the timeline for his MLB debut.

3. Byron Buxton will lead baseball in triples

The lone moment of excitement from the Twins' offense came in the eighth inning, when Buxton ripped a Tyler Wells fastball down the left field line. For almost everyone in the league, it would've been an easy stand-up double, even with Taylor Ward taking a second to retrieve the ball. But Buxton rounded second base and cruised into third with a one-out triple, which allowed him to score on a Luke Keaschall sacrifice fly.

Buxton hit a career-high seven triples last season, but he's always had the elite speed to rack up even more of baseball's rarest type of hit. This is a major overreaction/bold prediction, but let's go with Buxton leading the league in triples in 2026. Corbin Carroll had 17 of them last season and lefties tend to hit them at a higher rate, but anything is possible when there are still 161 games to play.