Inside The Twins

Signs that the Twins' starting pitching staff will turn the corner

In a season where the trade market could lack big-time starters, the Twins' best bet for success is in-house.
May 26, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA;  Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
May 26, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports | Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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The surplus of outfielders and high-end prospects the Twins could dangle at the trade deadline could serve as the fuel to bring in a high-end starting pitcher, which at this point seems like an obvious need if Minnesota wants to be a real contender. That said, there's still plenty of time for the current starting staff to prove they are the right five guys for the stretch run.

Pablo Lopez is supposed to be Minnesota's ace, but his 5.25 ERA in 11 starts looks nothing like the numbers that produced a seventh-place finish in Cy Young voting last season. Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have been good while Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have had mixed results.

Pitcher

ERA

K/9

Pablo Lopez

5.25

10.4

Joe Ryan

2.96

9.8

Bailey Ober

4.89

9.2

Chris Paddack

4.39

8.1

Simeon Woods Richardson

2.70

6.7

The question is if the current staff will turn the corner. Are there any signs that they will? Yes, there certainly are.

One thing that jumps off the page right away is that Lopez, Ryan and Ober all rank among the top 30 starters in strikeouts-per-nine innings. Lopez is 13th, Ryan is 19th and Ober ranks 27th. No other team has more than two starters with top 30 K/9 numbers.

Lopez also owns an expected ERA of 3.26, according to Baseball Savant. One would think that a guy who continues to put up impressive strikeout numbers will eventually see things balance out and produce results closer to what the expected ERA reveals.

Ryan is having the best season of his career and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Ober, if you take away his duds against the Royals, has been really good. Take away the 14 runs he's allowed in two starts against the Royals he has a 3.01 ERA in his nine other starts.

In other words, a top three of Lopez, Ryan and Ober still has potential to be really, really good.

And that's a good thing because the starting pitching market looks less than robust ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. Last week, The Athletic profiled six teams that look like surefire sellers ahead of the deadline and the players they could be looking to deal. The best starting pitchers on those teams are solid but wouldn't guarantee much of an upgrade in Minnesota.

  • Erik Fedde, White Sox
  • Austin Gomber, Rockies
  • Cal Quantrill, Rockies
  • Jesus Luzardo, Marlins
  • Paul Blackburn, Athletics
  • Lance Lynn, Cardinals
  • Kyle Gibson, Cardinals
  • Reid Detmers, Angels

Minnesota has been very streaky but as the season moves along there are signs that the starting rotation will begin to carry more weight.


Published
Joe Nelson
JOE NELSON

Joe Nelson has more than 20 years of experience in Minnesota sports journalism. Nelson began his career in sports radio, working at smaller stations in Marshall and St. Cloud before moving to the highly-rated KFAN-FM 100.3 in the Twin Cities. While there, he produced the popular mid-morning show hosted by Minnesota Vikings play-by-play announcer Paul Allen. His time in radio laid the groundwork for his transition to sports writing in 2011. He covers the Vikings, Timberwolves, Gophers and Twins for On SI.

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