Recent Wild Card History Gives White Sox Hope Against Astros

History says the Chicago White Sox should be feeling pretty good about their chances of advancing this week.

Sep 27, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop Colson Montgomery (12) and first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5) after the game against the Colorado Rockies at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

You can't really blame White Sox fans for being nervous about their team having to play the Houston Astros on the road in the Wild Card series. It's a worst-case scenario in that the Sox missed out on the AL Central by one game, so they only get a single day of rest before going on the road against an opponent that has had their number lately.

This season, the Sox went 2-5 against the Astros, dropping two of three games in Chicago and three of four in Houston. So not everyone assumes that just because the Astros had the worst record of any division winner during a full season means that they'll be an easy out. Plus, there are still key players left over from the period when they were in the World Series almost every year, including when they ousted the Sox during their last playoff appearance in 2021.

But despite a ravaged pitching staff and a lineup that can be inconsistent, all is not lost for the Sox. If you need some convincing, look no further than the Wild Card series over the past two years.

Sep 26, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox designated hitter Andrew Benintendi (23) celebrates with center fielder Tristan Peters (29) after they score on his three-run home run during the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Since MLB expanded the playoff field in 2022, there have been four instances in which a team lost the season series against the team they faced on the road in the Wild Card round yet still won. All of them have occurred since 2024.

All things considered, 2024 was the ultimate proof that what happened during the regular season means nothing in a best-of-three. Three of the four teams that advanced to the LDS out of the Wild Card round lost more regular-season games than they won against the team they eliminated to get there, despite not playing at home.

Working more in the Sox's favor historically is that three of the four teams that accomplished this came from the AL Central. The Detroit Tigers knocked out the Cleveland Guardians in 2025 and knocked out the same Astros in 2024, the same year the Kansas City Royals did it to the Baltimore Orioles. The remaining example was the 2024 New York Mets eliminating the Milwaukee Brewers.

So before you despair ahead of Game 1 against the Astros, don't be so quick to write the Sox off. They have proven time and again this season that they can't be kept down for long. That's one of the defining things for this team in 2026, so why not?