One Yankee Whose Second Half Struggles Shouldn't Worry Fans Yet

The New York Yankees' recent offensive struggles have been exacerbated by an inconvenient slump to their primary run producer.

Ben Rice, who enjoyed a brilliant first half that earned him a trip to the All-Star Game, is largely struggling after the break. In 23 games since July 17, the 27-year-old slugger is hitting just .163/.258/.314 with only 14 hits and a 63 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances. It's a far cry from the .279/.372/.599 slash line and 168 wRC+ he posted in the first 91 games of the season.

Ben Rice is 2 for his last 32 and his OPS on the season has fallen below .900 for the first time since March 30th pic.twitter.com/JED1zcKjcU
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) August 8, 2026

The Yankees' lineup has been hampered by injuries to Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton, while expected contributors like Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham and Austin Wells are failing to pick up the slack. Because Rice has been the one constant threat in the lineup this season, it's not surprising that fans would be concerned by his production slowing down.

But should the Yankees and the fans be worried about Rice? While the timing of his slump is frustrating, Rice is still the same hitter he was in the first half.

Is Ben Rice getting unlucky in the second half?

First, the area of Rice's struggles that does leave room for concern: his strikeouts. Rice has struck out 32 times in the second half, with a 33.0% strikeout rate, while only drawing 11 walks. Strikeouts were Rice's weakness in the first half, as he was punched out at a 23.3% rate in those first 91 games, but the increase in strikeouts has pulled his productivity way down.

However, Rice is still doing what he does best: hitting the ball extremely hard.

He has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph on 54 balls in play in the second half, and 27 of those batted balls had an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. Additionally, Rice is hitting line drives at a higher rate than he was in the first half (17.7% pre-ASG, 22.2% post-ASG), alongside fewer ground balls (42.3% pre-ASG, 37.0% post-ASG).

Ben Rice ties it with two outs in the 9th!

(via @Yankees)pic.twitter.com/k0yY0VRqNY
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 8, 2026

Because hard-hit fly balls and line drives are more likely to produce extra-base hits (and hits in general) than ground balls, the expected stats for Rice are significantly better. His expected batting average in the second half is .226, well above his actual average of .163. His expected slugging percentage is .466 as opposed to .314, and Rice's expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is .338, which is 79 points higher than the .259 wOBA he has since the All-Star Game.

This data points to Rice getting unlucky in his at-bats. While he's making loud contact consistently, those batted balls are finding gloves more often than they should. That was the story of Rice's 2025 season, when he hit .255/.337/.499 with a .358 wOBA, yet had a .280 xBA, .553 xSLG and .391 xwOBA based on the balls he put in play.

Ben Rice connects for his 32nd homer of the year 💥 pic.twitter.com/JTQ9GDjJVW
— MLB (@MLB) August 8, 2026

Of course, Rice's bad luck in 2025 corrected itself in the first half of 2026 and he emerged as arguably one of the best hitters in baseball. Now, he's getting rewarded less often for his hard-hit balls, which is exacerbated by his more frequent strikeouts and the rest of the lineup struggling.

The timing of Rice's slump is brutal, as the Yankees are desperate for offensive production while they wait for reinforcements. But if he continues to hit the ball with authority (like he always has), then it's only a matter of time before Rice goes on another hot streak.

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