The Yankees Lineup Patterns Tell a Subtle Story About Future

The New York Yankees are experimenting with who should be hitting ahead of Aaron Judge.

New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice (22) hist a two-RBI double during the eighth inning against the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees feel like they're back on track offensively. Their power surge helped them take four out of six games from the Angels and Royals.

Yet, for everything that is going well right now, the one thing they haven't quite solidified is the leadoff spot. That could be the second-most important spot in the lineup behind the two-spot, which is generally for Aaron Judge. It's all about who can get on in front of the captain for him to have a chance at putting up a crooked number early.

That was evident against Cole Ragans in Game 3 against the Kansas City Royals. Ben Rice walked, and then Judge hit a blast that was dead center, right into the outer corner of Monument Park. It was the 90th first-inning home run of his career. It's important to get to a tough righty like that early, and they cracked the Ragan code well in the game.

Aaron Judge CRUSHES this ball 💪

It's his 90th career first-inning homer! pic.twitter.com/qoi7BULvu2

— MLB (@MLB) April 19, 2026

In that last series against the Royals, Boone tried a medley of leadoff men. Trent Grisham, who is generally at the plate first for the Yankees, opened up the series in that spot. In Game 2 was Amed Rosario, and Game 3 it was the red-hot Rice.

Leadoff standards

It was a series for experimenting and figuring out their best lineup options. Rice and the surging Grisham likely meet traditional leadoff standards based on both of their abilities to draw a walk and get on base. Despite hitting .167, Grisham has a .321 OBP. That's because of an exorbitant 96th percentile 18.6% walk rate. On top of that, he's seeing 3.9 Pitches Per Plate Appearance.

Rice does all of that even better than Grisham. His 21.4% walk rate is in the 97th percentile. He also sees a whopping 4.429 P/PA.

Rice doesn't just have a chance to do damage, but he's an extremely tough out. His 20.8% chase rate on pitches outside of the strike zone proves that. He can ground down pitchers and have Judge get a few extra looks at what a starter is bringing. In the case of the Ragans game, Rice took six pitches that at-bat before Judge sent one of his pitches over the wall.

In game two, Boone put Amed Rosario at leadoff, and while plugging him into the lineup worked that game as it did two weeks ago against the Athletics when he hit two homers, he probably isn't the best fit for leading off. He has a .306 OBP and 6.1% walk rate.

New York Yankees third baseman Amed Rosario (14) runs off the field during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

He also doesn't see all that many pitches. He had a 3.469 P/PA and has a 3.607 P/PA in his career. His reason for being up there was probably because they were facing a lefty that day, and he specializes in crushing southpaws.

More traditional baseball viewers would probably slot Rice in the cleanup spot, but potentially waiting until the second inning for him to get on feels like wasting opportunities for him to be at the plate as much as possible. With the way Rice is swinging the bat, hitting in the leadoff spot gives him the most chances to get up in a game, with Judge getting the second-most opportunities. That's a lot of potential to do damage.

A surprising fit

Another name that Boone can potentially play with at the leadoff spot could be an unlikely one. That's Austin Wells. Wells is a lot like Grisham in that, at this point in the season, he is hitting below the Mendoza line, yet he has managed a .344 OBP. That's because of a 20.3% walk rate. That puts him in the 97th percentile in MLB.

Despite Wells being in a funk and looking like he's headed for another underwhelming season at the plate, there are a few traits he shares with Grisham outside of the high walk rate. He has 3.9 P/PA, which is a little below Rice's absurd ability to see pitches. He also has one of the better chase rates in the league. His 24.1% chase rate is in the 78th percentile.

There's a chance for game-wrecking possibilities to go on if the top of the lineup is Wells, Judge, and Rice. Especially if Wells is steady with those aforementioned traits that could make him a solid leadoff hitter.

Plus, for a guy who doesn't chase bad pitches the way he has in previous years, he'll start seeing more hittable ones behind Judge. No starter wants to put a runner on and see that 91st 1st inning homer.

As the Yankees regain their footing offensively, it will be interesting to see where Boone goes at leadoff. The best overall option is Rice, with Judge hitting after him. The league's most prominent game wreckers should get the most chances at the plate after all.