Did Sixers' Loss to Heat Cost Them a Top-6 Playoff Seed? Here's Our Best Guess

After securing a critical win over the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday with both Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr. returning, vibes were suddenly high for the Sixers. Perhaps too high, particularly since the Sixers were next headed to South Beach with a day off before a game Monday.

The South Beach flu got the best of the Sixers against the Heat, as they blew a late four-point fourth-quarter lead to instead lose by 10. Some fourth-quarter bozo ball—aka, aimlessly passing around the perimeter praying for the Heat to fall asleep or for individual greatness to bail them out—is what cost them the game.

The Sixers are now 1.5 games behind the fifth-seeded Toronto Raptors and sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks for the final guaranteed playoff spots in the East. They're sitting seventh, 1.5 games ahead of the Heat and Orlando Magic and two full games ahead of the Hornets (with the tiebreaker in hand, too).

Each team has no more than eight games remaining. There are less than two weeks left in the regular season. So, let's get wild.

Here, we're taking our best guess at how each team's last few games will play out. Tankers could always surprise a team—just look at what the Indiana Pacers did to Miami on Sunday—and it's impossible to predict each team's motivation in the final weekend of the regular season.

But based on what we know now, here's how we see the Nos. 5-10 seeds in the East shaking out.

Toronto Raptors (42-32)

March 31 @ Detroit: L
April 1 vs. Sacramento: W
April 3 @ Memphis: W
April 5 @ Boston: L
April 7 vs. Miami: W
April 9 vs. Miami: L
April 10 @ New York: W
April 12, vs. Brooklyn: W

Predicted record: 47-35

Predicted seed: 5

The Raptors have only three of their final eight games against tankers (Sacramento, Memphis and Brooklyn). The Pistons rested nearly everyone on Monday against the OKC Thunder, presumably to keep them fresh for Tuesday's game against Toronto. But if Jalen Duren, Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart remain out, the Raptors could easily win that game as well.

The Raptors aren't catching the Celtics on a back-to-back, so both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could/should be available. They could easily sweep the Heat, but a split feels like the safer bet. And by the final weekend, the Knicks may not have much (if anything) to play for, while the Raptors will likely still be jostling for seeding.

Atlanta Hawks (43-33)

April 1 @ Orlando: W
April 3 @ Brooklyn: W
April 6 vs. New York: L
April 8 @ Cleveland: L
April 10 vs. Cleveland: W
April 12 @ Miami: W

Predicted record: 47-35

Predicted seed: 6

Hawks-Magic on Wednesday is a pivotal game in the play-in race. The Hawks already own the season-series tiebreaker over the Magic (3-0), and Orlando will be on the second night of a back-to-back after facing the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. If the Hawks win that game, they should be on cruise control to a top-six seed.

With that said, their April 3 road contest against Brooklyn is their only remaining game against a tanking team. Their late-season home-and-home with the Cleveland Cavaliers could be tricky if the Cavs still have something left to play for, and Miami isn't likely to play dead in Game 82 next Sunday.

If the Hawks can win four of their final six, they'll be in great shape for a top-six seed.

Philadelphia 76ers (41-34)

April 1 @ Washington: W
April 3 vs. Minnesota: W
April 4 vs. Detroit: L
April 6 @ San Antonio: L
April 9 @ Houston: L
April 10 @ Indiana: W
April 12 vs. Milwaukee: W

Predicted record: 45-37

Predicted seed: 7

The good news about the Sixers' loss to the Heat on Monday is that they might have already been headed for the No. 7 seed even with a win. The bad news is that a win in the 7-8 play-in game would likely book them a first-round date with Tatum, Brown and the Celtics.

With Jaden McDaniels sidelined, that Timberwolves game gets much less daunting, particularly since it's on the first leg of a back-to-back against Detroit. If Joel Embiid and Paul George can't play in both games, the Sixers should just pick one to play both of them in and at least aim to go for the split.

Having their final two games against the Pacers and Bucks should be a welcome reprieve after a late-season road trip to face San Antonio and Houston. Unless they pull off a few big wins—or the Hawks and/or Raptors falter—the Sixers appear to have dug themselves too deep of a hole to escape the play-in tournament.

Orlando Magic (39-35)

March 31 vs. Phoenix: W
April 1 vs. Atlanta: L
April 3 @ Dallas: W
April 5 @ New Orleans: W
April 6 vs. Detroit: L
April 8 vs. Minnesota: L
April 10 @ Chicago: W
April 12 @ Boston: W

Predicted record: 44-38

Predicted seed: 8

If the Magic can split their upcoming back-to-back against the Suns and Hawks, they should consider that a win. Road games against the Mavericks and Pelicans aren't gimmes, although Orlando should be clear favorites in both.

Getting the Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back is cruel and unusual punishment, and the Timberwolves should pose a tough test two nights later. Luckily, the Bulls are in full tanking mode, and the Celtics very well could have nothing left to play for on the final day of the regular season.

Miami Heat (40-36)

April 1 vs. Boston: L
April 4 vs. Washington: W
April 7 @ Toronto: L
April 9 @ Toronto: W
April 10 @ Washington: W
April 12 vs. Atlanta: L

Predicted record: 43-39

Predicted seed: 9

The Tatum-less Celtics lost to the Hawks on Monday, but the Heat could be in trouble if both Tatum and Brown play Wednesday. Two games against Washington will be a nice reprieve no matter what happens against Boston, but those two games are sandwiching a two-game road trip to Toronto.

If the Heat split those games, they should be able to keep pressure on Orlando for the No. 8 seed even if they lose to Atlanta on the final day of the regular season. An unexpected win over Boston or sweep of the Raptors could put the Heat in contention for a top-eight seed, but they're likely too far behind the Raptors and Hawks to catch up to either of them.

Charlotte Hornets (39-36)

March 31 @ Brooklyn: W
April 2 vs. Phoenix: L
April 3 vs. Indiana: W
April 5 @ Minnesota: L
April 7 @ Boston: L
April 10 vs. Detroit: W
April 12 @ New York: W

Predicted record: 43-39

Predicted seed: 10

The Hornets should pulverize the Nets and Pacers, but those two games sandwich a matchup with the Suns on the front end of a back-to-back. A loss in that game might effectively clinch the Hornets' spot in the play-in tournament, particularly with a late-season road trip to Minnesota and Boston still awaiting.

The Hornets' final two games against the Pistons and Knicks sound daunting on paper, but the top four seeds might be decided by that point. The Pistons should clinch the East's No. 1 seed within the next week and have zero shot at the league's best record, so they figure to be fully resting players by that point in the season. The same goes for the Knicks unless they're within a game of either the Celtics or Cavaliers next Sunday.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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