What the Sixers Must Do to Avoid the NBA's Play-In Tournament

The Sixers headed into Monday's game against the San Antonio Spurs as the No. 6 seed in the East. Roughly 48 hours later, they're now the No. 8 seed.

The Orlando Magic picked up a pair of big wins against the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, both of which caagainst extremely shorthanded rosters. They finish their season with a two-game road trip to Chicago (tanking) and Boston (will likely have nothing left to play for by Sunday).

The Magic, who are now fully healthy and are riding a four-game win streak, seem likely to win out and finish the season at 46-36. The Sixers are currently 43-36 with three games left. You can do the math from there.

If the Sixers and Magic finish in a tie record-wise, the Sixers will finish ahead of them since they won the regular-season series between the two. They aren't the only ones still vying for a top-six seed, though.

The Atlanta Hawks (45-35) can clinch a guaranteed playoff spot with one more win. The Toronto Raptors (44-35) are only a half-game behind them, although they're also only a half-game ahead of the Magic and a game ahead of the Sixers.

The Raptors finish the season with a home game against Miami on Thursday, a trip to New York to face the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back Friday, and a home game against Brooklyn to close out the season. Unless they drop two of those three games, the Sixers would have to win out to finish in a tie with them record-wise. (The Sixers also hold the tiebreaker over the Raptors, but they do not have it over the Hawks.)

So, barring a major collapse by at least two of the Hawks, Raptors and Magic, the Sixers need to win out to have any prayer of landing a guaranteed playoff spot via a top-six seed. They're likely going to have to fight their way into the playoffs through the play-in tournament. (Luckily, we've already ranked their preferred order of opponents.)

Could the Sixers win out?

Operation Win Out begins Thursday night with a road game against the Houston Rockets. The Sixers then fly to Indiana to face the Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back. Which game Joel Embiid plays in and which game he sits could determine whether the Sixers even have a prayer of landing a top-six seed.

Since the Rockets are still battling for a top-four seed out West, the Sixers basically have to play Embiid against the Rockets and sit him against the Pacers to maximize their chances of winning out. They'll still have a decent shot against the Pacers without Embiid—and perhaps even better if the Pacers rest Pascal Siakam—but the Rockets would be an uphill battle without him.

The Sixers did beat the Rockets in their lone meeting earlier this season in Philadelphia, 128-122 in overtime. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey combined for 68 points on 25-of-47 shooting (including only 3-of-13 from deep), and Embiid chipped in 15 rebounds and 10 assists to go with his 32 points.

The good news about that game is that the Sixers won despite getting only 19 points from Paul George and VJ Edgecombe combined. Kelly Oubre Jr. exploded for 26 points on 10-of-14 shooting in a spot start, which seems far less likely to happen this time around. George and Edgecombe should be able to help make up for that, though.

The Rockets went through some turbulent waters earlier this season, but they're currently riding a seven-game win streak, including a blowout win over the Knicks. The Sixers have mostly been licking their wounds since the All-Star break.

Both teams have a ton of motivation to win this game seeding-wise, so expect it to have playoff-caliber intensity. If the Sixers lose this game, their dreams of avoiding the play-in will all but be up in smoke.

Even if the Sixers do win Thursday, they'll then immediately have to get on a plane to Indiana to face the Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pacers haven't quite been as much roadkill since Siakam returned a few weeks ago, although the Pacers could decide to sit him down the stretch to lock themselves into their lottery slot.

The Sixers' regular-season finale against the Milwaukee Bucks isn't guaranteed to be a gimme, either. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been clamoring for weeks to get a chance to play with both of his brothers. Will the Bucks give him that chance in the season finale?

The Bucks are a half-game ahead of the Chicago Bulls, which would give them the 10th-best odds of winning the lottery. If they beat the Brooklyn Nets on Friday, they might be locked into that spot. Even if the Nets sit Giannis in an attempt to lose the tank-off against the Nets, he could return Sunday if the game is meaningless for lottery purposes.

In other words: The deck appears to be stacked against the Sixers at the moment, although plenty can change over the next four days.

A swift exit?

If the Sixers do wind up in the play-in tournament, none of the Raptors, Magic, Heat or Charlotte Hornets project as pushovers. There's still a real chance that the Sixers don't even make the playoffs.

Even if they do, they're staring at a matchup with either the Boston Celtics if they're the No. 7 seed or the Detroit Pistons if they're the No. 8 seed. They're likely drawing dead in either matchup barring widespread injuries.

The Sixers wouldn't have a much easier road as either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Both the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers likely would be fairly heavy favorites over the Sixers.

If the Sixers hold up health-wise, they have a star-studded top four that can challenge most other cores in the league. The question is whether they can hold up health-wise, particularly once minutes ramp up in the playoffs. Maxey and Edgecombe are already used to playing 40-plus minutes per game, but are Embiid and George ready for it?

Other teams in the playoff mix are also still figuring things out on the fly. The Magic are reintegrating Franz Wagner after he recently returned from a high ankle sprain. The Knicks are still facing questions about their starting lineup. The Cavaliers haven't had much time to develop chemistry with all four of Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

The Sixers' top-end talent gives them a fairly high playoff ceiling, but they also have a wide range of outcomes. They realistically could go anywhere from conference finals run to knocked out in the play-in tournament. That's how tight the margins are this year.

The most likely outcome is a first-round knockout at the hands of the Celtics or Pistons, both of which would be traumatic to an entire generation of Sixers for different reasons. The Sixers still have time to change that fate, starting with Thursday against Houston.