Who Would the Sixers Protect in an NBA Expansion Draft?

The worst-kept secret in sports is out of the bag. The NBA's board of governors plans to vote next week on whether to take the next step toward expanding the league by adding two new teams in Seattle and Las Vegas, according to multiple reports.

If the owners do eventually approve expansion, the new teams wouldn't begin play until the 2028-29 season. That means the league would hold an expansion draft during the 2028 offseason.

That makes what we're about to do more of a thought exercise than anything else.

The NBA's latest collective bargaining agreement contains only one paragraph on expansion, believe it or not. In that paragraph, it says teams will "make available for assignment… a certain number of veterans under substantially the same terms and in substantially the same manner" as the league's latest expansion draft for the then-Charlotte Bobcats in 2004.

In that draft, teams could protect no more than eight players from being selected, and it could only protect players under contract and restricted free agents. Unrestricted free agents were neither able to be protected nor able to be selected. Teams also had to leave at least one player unprotected even if it didn't have eight players under contract or set to become RFAs.

The Bobcats were allowed to select no more than one player from each team. Since the 2028 expansion draft would presumably feature both the Seattle and Las Vegas teams, it's unclear whether that limit will stand as is or increase to two per team (one for each expansion team).

If the expansion draft were being held this offseason, its structure would raise some thorny questions for the Sixers in particular. The biggest one: Do you dare either of the expansion teams to take on Joel Embiid and/or Paul George's contracts?

With that in mind, let's hypothesize how the Sixers would approach a current expansion draft.

Untouchable

Tyrese Maxey
VJ Edgecombe

If the Sixers left either Maxey or Edgecombe unprotected, they should volunteer to move their franchise to Seattle or Las Vegas instead. They're already on thin ice in Philadelphia after repeated salary dumps at the trade deadline to get under the luxury tax. That would be the last straw.

Unprotectable

Kelly Oubre Jr.
Quentin Grimes
Andre Drummond
Kyle Lowry

All four of these guys are set to become unrestricted free agents. The Sixers likely would protect both Oubre and Grimes if they could, but they'd let Drummond and Lowry go either way.

Want these contracts?

Joel Embiid
Paul George

This is where it gets interesting.

Embiid is just about to start a three-year max extension worth a projected $188.2 million. George is nearly halfway through his four-year, $211.6 million max contract. However, he still has two years and more than $110 million left on it, including a $56.7 million player option in his age-37 season. It's a real mystery as to whether he'll pick that up.

When Embiid and George are healthy, they both raise the Sixers' floor and ceiling. With all four of Embiid, George, Maxey and Edgecombe, the Sixers faintly resembled a contender this year at times. But this is the second straight season in which absences from Embiid and George have piled up and effectively buried the Sixers.

The Bobcats were allowed to select players in the expansion draft "without regard to the salary cap," so Embiid and George's bloated contracts wouldn't be a deterrent in that regard. However, the CBA also spells out that expansion teams have different salary caps than the rest of the league for their first two years of existence.

In the first year, their salary cap is 66⅔% of the regular salary cap. In the second year, it's 80%. And in both years, the expansion teams will have to reach the NBA's salary floor (90% of their salary cap) by the first day of the regular season.

Embiid and George are each earning more than 30% of the salary cap. They'd gobble up roughly half (if not more) of an expansion team's cap space in its first year of existence. Given their recent injury histories, that'd be an enormously risky gamble for the expansion team to take.

The Sixers might look at it as a get-out-of-jail-free opportunity and dare them to do it. The wild card is how the expansion draft will actually work.

Will the league turn it into a made-for-TV event? If so, every player will know whether his team designated him as protected from being selected or not.

How do you think Embiid would react to finding out that he wasn't protected? It might make James Harden's trade request look tame in retrospect.

Only if you need eight

Dominick Barlow (team option)
Trendon Watford (team option)
Adem Bona
Justin Edwards
Jabari Walker

Of these five, Barlow and Bona would be the first two protected.

Barlow has started 51 games for the Sixers this season and earned himself a fresh two-year deal after signing a two-way contract over the offseason. Bona's role has been less consistent, as he spent most of the season battling Drummond for backup minutes behind Embiid, but he's started each of the past seven games in Embiid's absence. He's still averaging only 23.0 minutes, but he's chipping in 6.4 points, 5 9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game during that time.

Edwards' $2.4 million salary for next season is fully guaranteed, and he struggled to crack the rotation with everyone healthy. But if the Sixers trade George or lose Oubre in free agency, they might have him ticketed for a bigger role next year. They'd likely protect him if they had space, but he wouldn't be a high-priority protection.

The Sixers have a team option on Watford, while Walker's contract has only $250,000 in guaranteed money for 2026-27. If they pick up their option on Watford, his $2.8 million salary for 2026-27 would become guaranteed. That's roughly $350,000 more than what a minimum contract would be, which is a relatively minimal difference. (Although who knows with this team in particular.)

If they had space to protect Watford and Walker, there's no reason not to. Especially because there's a clear answer of whom to leave unprotected.

Godspeed

Johni Broome

The Sixers have Broom signed for a guaranteed $2.15 million in 2026-27, a non-guaranteed $2.5 million in 2027-28 and a $2.7 million team option in 2028-29. The problem is that he's shown nothing to prove that he's ready for an NBA role during his short time with them.

In 55 minutes across 11 games, Broome has 10 total points on 4-of-24 shooting (including 0-of-5 from deep), 16 rebounds and seven personal fouls. He's been far better in the G League, where he's averaging 22.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 33.2 minutes per game, but it hasn't translated to the NBA yet.

If Broome were a young prospect, the Sixers might give him a longer leash. However, he's turning 24 in mid-July. At 6'10" and 235 pounds, he might be the rare tweener who truly doesn't have a clear role in today's increasingly positionless NBA.

Since they have to leave at least one player under contract unprotected, Broome is the obvious choice.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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