Would the Sixers Be Better Off Losing in the Play-In Tournament?

The Sixers have two shots this week to earn a playoff berth.

If they beat the Orlando Magic at home on Wednesday, they'll earn a first-round date with the Boston Celtics. If they lose to the Magic, they'll host the winner of Tuesday's game between the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat on Friday for the right to take on the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the playoffs.

If the Sixers were full strength, they might stand a slight chance of pulling off an upset against either the Celtics or Pistons. But with Joel Embiid , the Sixers are likely drawing dead even if they do survive the play-in.

That begs the question: Would they be better off losing against Orlando and either Charlotte or Miami?

The case for missing the playoffs

The Sixers owe their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it lands outside the top four this year. If they make the playoffs, they guarantee that pick conveys.

There's no point in tanking at this time of year, but the silver lining of two straight play-in losses is that the Sixers would gain a remote chance to keep their own pick this year.

If they go into the lottery with the 14th-best odds, they'd have a 2.4% chance of landing a top-four pick, . If they go in with the 13th-best odds, they'd have a 4.7% chance.

The Sixers would be far more likely than not to convey their pick either way. But the Dallas Mavericks just won the rights to Cooper Flagg last year despite entering the lottery with a 1.8% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick. Anything can happen on a single drawing.

Even if the Sixers don't keep their pick, they'll have either the No. 22 or No. 23 pick from the Houston Rockets. But if they landed a top-four pick along with No. 22 or No. 23, it would be rocket fuel for their long-term post-Joel Embiid plan.

In all likelihood, the Sixers will convey their own pick to OKC, but they'll have a pick courtesy of the Rockets a few spots later. Missing the playoffs entirely for the second straight season could make the ownership group question whether they have the right leadership in place to make that pick.

If the Sixers make the playoffs and have a competitive first-round series without Embiid, they might be inclined to run back the same main group next year and hope for better health, much like they did this year. That worked at times, but it wasn't enough to get them a guaranteed playoff spot.

Maybe the stars will finally align and both Embiid and Paul George will make it to the playoffs healthy next season. It took a late-season 25-game suspension for George and more than 40 missed games from Embiid to get them to that spot this year prior to Embiid's appendectomy. Neither guy is getting any younger, either.

The Embiid-less Sixers are likely headed for an embarrassing postseason exit at some point in the next three weeks. Wouldn't it be better to get it over with sooner and force a more drastic reevaluation of whether this roster as is can be a contender with better health?

The case for making the playoffs

If the Sixers do make the playoffs, the single most important takeaway is this: Josh Harris and Co. get a few extra games of ticket sales. Everybody wins.

Beyond that, the playoffs are the crucible that players need to test themselves in to find out what they need to add to their games before they're ready to win a championship. Sixers head coach Nick Nurse told reporters Sunday that he's eager to make the playoffs because of how much VJ Edgecombe and Tyrese Maxey in particular could benefit from that experience.

"I always view it as everybody needs it. You need it. Let's hope we get into a playoff series because I really think it's so valuable for everybody. Even the guys that have been in them a little bit need it," Nurse said.

"VJ obviously needs it. Tyrese needs some more. It's invaluable experience and that's why you really want to get in it and go through it."

Even if (when) the Sixers lose in the first round, Edgecombe and Maxey will hopefully glean something from that that they can build upon moving forward. That alone would justify the annihilation they're about to face if they make the playoffs.

That is, of course, assuming Embiid is out. But if there's been one constant for the Sixers during the Embiid era, it's this: expect the unexpected.

The Sixers haven't announced a timetable for Embiid's return from his appendectomy, although injury expert Jeff Stotts noted NBA players have returned from that procedure in 23 days on average . Embiid underwent surgery on April 9, which would put his earliest estimated return toward the end of April.

It's possible (although unlikely) that Embiid will be available toward the end of the first round. It's not even clear if he'd be available moving forward if they do somehow manage to upset either the Celtics or Pistons without him.

But what if he was? And what if somehow, against all rhyme or reason, he wasn't even that rusty?

The verdict

In all likelihood, one of two things will happen in the next few weeks:

The Sixers miss the playoffs but convey their pick anyway
The Sixers make the playoffs and get destroyed in the first round

They have a minuscule chance of keeping their pick if they miss the playoffs, and they have a minuscule chance of getting past the first round, particularly if Embiid remains sidelined.

So, Sixers fans have to ask themselves: Do playoff reps for Edgecombe, Maxey and the Sixers' other young players outweigh the need for a major re-evaluation that might happen if they missed the playoffs entirely? Or will they embark upon that either way, therefore pushing the pros side ahead of the cons side?

It's hard to say a below-5% chance of landing a top-four pick is more valuable than getting Edgecombe playoff experience as a rookie. But if the Sixers do lose to the Magic on Wednesday and the Hornets on Friday, that would at least be one silver lining to their season coming to such an abrupt end.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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