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The Best and Worst Case Scenario for Every NBA Team in the Postseason
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The NBA season has reached its conclusion, and we now sit in the nebulous week of the play-in tournament, which will finalize the field for the coming playoffs. Twenty teams technically remain eligible for the title, but in a few short days that number will be down to 16 at which point the bracket really begins to determine a champion.
The size of the NBA postseason means that while every team does in fact have a shot at the title, the definition of a “successful” playoff run can vary pretty wildly. For some teams, an appearance in the conference finals would be a huge boon, for others, that same trip could be seen as an extreme disappointment.
Let’s break down the best and worst case scenarios for every team in the field.
Eastern Conference:
1. Detroit Pistons
Best Case: Lifting the Larry O’Brien for the first time since 2004.
Worst Case: Lack of playoff experience leads to a shocking early exit.
The Pistons are the No. 1 team in the East for a reason, but they are about to test out the theory of how much playoff experience matters to a team looking to make a run. While the Thunder are the reigning champions this year, it was just a year before that Oklahoma City, with essentially zero playoff experience on the roster, came into the postseason as the No. 1 team in the West only to get bounced in six games by the Mavericks in the conference semifinals.
This year’s Pistons team has all the talent it needs for a run to the Finals, but the lack of experience could bite them.
2. Boston Celtics
Best Case: Jayson Tatum gets his NBA Finals MVP trophy.
Worst Case: The Knicks have their number.
Whoever thought the Celtics would be sitting second in the East at the start of the season? Despite playing without Jayson Tatum for most of the season as he recovered from his Achilles tear, Boston was an absolute bully, with Jaylen Brown taking on the superstar crown and a slew of role players stepping up in huge ways.
A run back to the Finals and a second title in three seasons is very much in play—maybe with Tatum winning the Finals MVP trophy that eluded him in 2024. But as the No. 2 seed, the Celtics could face the No. 3 Knicks—who eliminated them in last year’s postseason and won the regular-season series between the two sides 3–1—in the conference semifinals. Buckle up.
3. New York Knicks
Best Case: Making good on James Dolan’s NBA Finals call from the start of the year.
Worst Case: Very expensively running out of gas once again.
Every year, rotations get tighter in the playoffs as the stakes of every minute are escalated. At least, that’s how it usually works. But through the Knicks’ recent seasons, former coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters for so many minutes during the regular season that his playoff rotations often differed very little from what we saw in the months before. The result? Enough postseasons falling short of expectations that a change was made.
New coach Mike Brown has the Knicks back in the playoffs, and has done so while also ensuring all five of New York’s top scoring players are playing less minutes per night than last year, some by as much as five minutes. The pieces are there for the Knicks to fulfill team owner James Dolan’s decree that they should be competing for championships. This might be their best shot yet of this era. Given they sport one of the most expensive payrolls in the league, it’s not clear how many more bites at the apple this core will get.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Best Case: James Harden finally gets back to the NBA Finals.
Worst Case: The James Harden experiment shows similar results as previous attempts.
The last time James Harden played in the NBA Finals he did so as the Sixth Man of the Year for the Thunder in 2012. Obviously, plenty has changed since then, with many teams hoping Harden would be the missing piece to take them on a title run only to leave disappointed. The Cavs are the latest to make that bet, and so far the marriage has run rather smoothly. That said, a first-round series against the Raptors, who swept Cleveland 3–0 in the regular season, means the hard work starts fast for the Cavs.
Cleveland likely doesn’t have the horses to compete with whoever comes out of the West, but a run to the Finals representing the Eastern Conference would be quite a feat.
5. Toronto Raptors
Best Case: Defense wins championships (or at least a first-round playoff series).
Worst Case: That doesn’t matter with only one competent offensive player.
Just five teams in the NBA—the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs and Celtics—sport a better defensive rating than the Raptors. That’s good! But beyond that elite defense, it is tough to get too excited about this Raptors squad. With Brandon Ingram as the team’s top offensive threat, Toronto will not play a series this entire postseason run where they have the best offensive player on the court. Defense wins championships, but you really do need some offense to go with it.
6. Atlanta Hawks
Best Case: Make some noise in the conference finals ahead of schedule.
Worst Case: Punched by the Knicks.
A first-round series against the Knicks is especially intriguing given the two teams’ recent history. Trea Young was public enemy No. 1 at Madison Square Garden during his time with the Hawks, stemming back to his effort that cut short their playoff run in 2021. But this year, the Hawks made the decision to retool, shipping off Young to build around Jalen Johnson. The move has worked out for Atlanta, and if things break the right way, it’s not hard to imagine the Hawks giving fits to teams in the first or second round of the playoffs. That said, if the Knicks still have some animosity aimed at Atlanta, it could be a short stay in the postseason.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
Best Case: Joel Embiid miraculously bounces back from his appendectomy looking better than ever.
Worst Case: Booed off their home court in back-to-back play-in losses.
It’s not hard to imagine this one getting ugly fast. After another disappointing season derailed by the unreliable availability of big man Joel Embiid, the 76ers only did enough to make the play-in tournament, and will now need to win without Embiid, who is recovering from an unexpected appendectomy, in order to make the true playoff field. As the No. 7 team in the East, Philly has the privilege of hosting the first play-in game, and if they lose to the Magic, will host the winner of the Hornets vs. Heat game for the final spot in the playoffs. Don’t expect Philadelphia sports fans to hold back on this Sixers team if they can’t battle their way into a real postseason series.
8. Orlando Magic
Best Case: Prove an annoyance to whichever first-round opponent they draw.
Worst Case: The dreaded middle class of the NBA.
The Magic occupy a space that has become less and less desirable in the modern NBA—the middle class. Orlando won a respectable 45 games this season, and has the talent, shooting and energy to hang with almost any team on any given night in the NBA. How does that translate to a seven-game series? There’s a chance, especially if they wind up going against the Pistons in the first round, that the Magic can muddy up a series enough to let Detroit’s inexperience get in its collective head. But if this year ends with an elimination in the play-in tournament or a gentleman’s sweep in the first round, it just leaves Orlando with more retooling for the future this offseason.
9. Charlotte Hornets
Best Case: Take the Pistons to the brink.
Worst Case: What a fun stretch of basketball to close out the year.
The Hornets have been one of the most fascinating teams in the NBA through the second half of the year, with winning streaks of nine games, six games, five games and four games all since the start of January. They never lost more than two in a row during that run. While Detroit swept the season series against Charlotte 3–0, the Hornets have the talent to give their betters a scare, or at least give their home fans their first playoff win since 2016. If the Hornets fall short, the foundation is there for a higher spot in next year’s playoff field, and the strong finish to the season makes it a clear success of a year.
10. Miami Heat
Best Case: Heat Culture does it again.
Worst Case: At least we didn’t tank.
The Heat are the only team to have made the run from the play-in tournament to the NBA Finals, and after Bam Adebayo’s 83-point game earlier this year, far be it from me to doubt the Heat in any regard. If Miami can snag the No. 8 spot in the bracket, you can bet the Heat are going to give the Pistons one hell of a fight no matter how long (or short) their series goes. That said, the Heat are also just one loss away from elimination, and are 5.5-point underdogs to the Hornets on Tuesday night. If the season ends there, well, that’s all folks. But Miami can hold its head high knowing that they never stooped to accepting or as some teams did, embracing a spot in the lottery.
Western Conference:
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Best Case: The true start of the dynasty.
Worst Case: Caught by the pack.
The reigning champions are right back where they expected to be. Oklahoma City is the rightful favorite to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy again this year. If the Thunder pull it off, they will be well on the path to establishing themselves as a true dynasty of the era, capable of dominating the current championship window. But as the Spurs have shown throughout the regular season, there are other teams catching up. If one dynasty is to rise, it has to bury a few other budding empires in the process.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Best Case: Experience doesn’t matter.
Worst Case: Experience matters a lot.
The case against the Spurs is an extremely simple one—they have not been here before. San Antonio’s starting five have played a grand total of just 270 postseason minutes heading into the playoffs. It’s a total they’ll likely surpass two games into the first round. If you are a believer that teams need to be forged in the fire of postseason play before making a title run, consider the Spurs unseasoned. That said, the case for the Spurs is also an extremely simple one—this team is really, really good at basketball, and have in Victor Wembanyama the best player on the floor on most nights.
3. Denver Nuggets
Best Case: Nikola Jokić takes down his fellow MVP candidates en route to a second title.
Worst Case: The supporting cast comes up short yet again.
There’s one thing the Nuggets can count on every postseason: Nikola Jokić will show up. The three-time MVP has earned his reputation as a playoff riser. After another historically excellent regular season the Serbian superstar is looking to lead a talented and deep Denver squad back to the Finals. Their path is difficult, however, featuring the Nuggets’ old foes in Minnesota before a pair of MVP rivals await in Victor Wembanyama and, finally, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
This Denver squad is good enough to run the West bracket and Jokić has proven more than capable of emerging victorious in head-to-head matchups with his fellow candidates for MVP. But outside of Jamal Murray and, when healthy, Aaron Gordon the supporting cast isn’t quite as battle tested; the Nuggets will need contributions from everybody to win out and they didn’t get it last year, leading to a narrow seven-game series loss to the eventual champion Thunder.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
Best Case: The magic of Spanish healthcare has cured Luka beyond our wildest imagination.
Worst Case: LeBron can’t keep things afloat long enough for the horses to get back.
The Lakers felt a whole lot more interesting as a playoff team just two weeks ago. Luka Dončić spent the last stretch of March averaging 40 points per game, and Los Angeles was 15–2 over the course of the month, one of the hottest teams in the league. Since then, Dončić has had to fly off to Spain for treatment on a hamstring strain, while fellow guard Austin Reaves is working his way back from an oblique strain.
It falls on LeBron James and a ragtag team of heroes to hold the fort for the Lakers until their two star guards can return. We know that even after two decades in the NBA, James still has the ability to take over, but it’s going to take a heroic effort to buy his team enough time for the reinforcements to arrive. But if we somehow are able to see a fully healthy Lakers squad this postseason, get ready for a show.
5. Houston Rockets
Best Case: Favorable first-round draw sets up Kevin Durant to become an all-time villain.
Worst Case: At least we got one more LeBron vs. Durant playoff series.
The Rockets are a flawed team missing several key players due to injury and generally make it hard to believe they can make a run at a title. But Houston got a lucky first-round draw in the Lakers, one of the few teams hitting the postseason even more shorthanded. If the Rockets can take advantage and wins a playoff series it makes this year a success despite the speedbumps. It also sets up a tremendous second round matchup narratively, with Kevin Durant returning to play the Thunder in Oklahoma City. With that comes the possibility Houston’s fierce defense can match OKC’s and give Durant a window of opportunity to cement himself as an all-time villain by knocking off the defending champion Thunder in a shocking upset. What theater that would be.
Unfortunately, the Rockets have enough weaknesses that it’s not hard to see them folding against LeBron James. It’ll be a delight to see KD and “The King” face off again no matter what, but for Houston that may wind up the only fun part of this series.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Best Case: The switch gets flipped.
Worst Case: The switch doesn’t exist.
The Timberwolves are coming off two consecutive Western Conference finals appearances and approached this regular season like a veteran playoff-tested team—they only really tried about 50% of the time and coasted otherwise. Such teams tend to believe in their ability to lock in when the games really matter in the postseason. Not every team can actually do so, however. If Minnesota can, great! That will mean Anthony Edwards’s knee injury isn’t a worry and the Julius Randle-Rudy Gobert duo still make for quality complements to the Wolves’ young star. But there’s a very real chance that switch doesn’t exist, the inconsistent play from this team over the regular season is a feature rather than a bug and they’ll be summarily ushered out of the playoffs in short order. Such an exit would lead to significant offseason consequences.
7. Phoenix Suns
Best Case: A scrappy, overachieving bunch overachieves again and gives the Spurs a scare.
Worst Case: Two straight play-in losses wipes away the good vibes of this season.
The Suns were not expected to be very good this season. But rookie coach Jordan Ott earned total buy-in defensively and the yin-yang of Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks’s respective personalities led the team to much greater heights than anticipated. They’ve made for a great story and could definitely give the Spurs a fight if they win their play-in game against the Trail Blazers. An upset over a young San Antonio team is too rich a dream but a six-game series would serve as affirmation Phoenix is headed in the right direction. The only way those positive vibes disappear is if the Suns collapse and lose two straight to miss the postseason entirely. It would leave a bad taste in everybody’s mouth after a successful campaign.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
Best Case: Deni Avdija thrives with a playoff whistle.
Worst Case: Deni Avdija is exposed as a free throw merchant.
The Trail Blazers are probably just relieved this season is finally ending (no matter how that end comes about) after it began with Chauncey Billups’s federal indictment. As far as on the court goes, though, Deni Avdija’s breakout campaign was a big development; the sixth-year forward averaged close to 25 ppg en route to his first All-Star appearance. But the way his production was boosted largely came from an extremely favorable whistle. Avdija jumped from 5.2 free throw attempts per game last year to a whopping 9.2 this year, which ranks second in the NBA—ahead of even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
With how the whistle tightens up every year in the playoffs, how well Avdija can score will tell us and Portland a lot about his potential. If he maintains his production and efficiency, there’s nothing to worry about. But if a lack of calls derails his game, there will be big questions entering this offseason. How this situation pans out is more significant to the franchise than whether they can make their first playoff appearance since 2021.
9. Los Angeles Clippers
Best Case: Kawhi Leonard goes full cyborg.
Worst Case: Injury rears its ugly head.
Kawhi Leonard was awesome this season and, shockingly, appeared in enough games to be considered for All-NBA honors; he should receive such honors and possibly a top-five MVP finish to boot. He is entirely capable of going full cyborg and absolutely decimating whatever opponent lines up across from him. When “The Klaw” is in that mode, the Clippers can rip through the play-in tournament with ease; they’d also make for an interesting first-round opponent for the Thunder from a narrative standpoint as well as a talent standpoint when considering Darius Garland’s bounceback second half.
But both Garland and Leonard infamously battle injuries on the regular and if those injury issues struck again the franchise would hit the offseason feeling much worse than if they just lose in the play-in.
10. Golden State Warriors
Best Case: Steph Curry refuses to accept reality, drags his team to a first-round exit.
Worst Case: Too old to make it out of the play-in tournament.
The Warriors are not going to win anything of note this season. They are, as a roster, too old and injured to compete with better teams. But Steph Curry appears to be healthy and ready to go for the play-in tournament, which means there exists the possibility the all-time great defies the odds and drags an undermanned, aging team to a first-round playoff berth. That would not only be fun to watch but would serve as a soothing capper to a painful season for Golden State—even if it came at the cost of a lottery spot.
When Curry gets going he’s still the best show in the NBA. However, he and the other key Warriors on the older side will be on a minutes restriction for the first play-in game against the Clippers, reflecting the reality that they might literally be too old to win consecutive games and earn a date with the Thunder.
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Tyler Lauletta is a staff writer for the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. Before joining SI, he covered sports for nearly a decade at Business Insider, and helped design and launch the OffBall newsletter. He is a graduate of Temple University in Philadelphia, and remains an Eagles and Phillies sicko. When not watching or blogging about sports, Tyler can be found scratching his dog behind the ears.
Liam McKeone is a senior writer for the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. He has been in the industry as a content creator since 2017, and prior to joining SI in May 2024, McKeone worked for NBC Sports Boston and The Big Lead. In addition to his work as a writer, he has hosted the Press Pass Podcast covering sports media and The Big Stream covering pop culture. A graduate of Fordham University, he is always up for a good debate and enjoys loudly arguing about sports, rap music, books and video games. McKeone has been a member of the National Sports Media Association since 2020.