One Key Stat for Each Sixer in the Last Third of the Season

The Sixers have 28 games left in the regular season. They will return from the All-Star break on Thursday at home against the Atlanta Hawks. Philadelphia has upward mobility in the standings, but there's also still risk that they fall into the Play-In tournament.

They are approaching do-or-die time. So here's one statistic for each player that will dictate the rest of the team's season.

5.7 drives per game

Nick Nurse often says that his best gauge of Joel Embiid's health is his willingness to drive the paint. It's a measure of force, and probably a good use of the eye test. Embiid is averaging 5.7 drives per game this season, per NBA.com. Can he maintain or increase that volume, thereby completing a nice bounce-back season?

38.6 minutes per game

Tyrese Maxey has experienced a sharp decline in both his three-point shooting efficiency and scoring since the start of 2026. Some of that is undoubtedly the kinds of defensive coverages he's seeing, and that makes his teammates somewhat culpable in the matter. But some of it is also likely fatigue. His 38.6 minutes per game lead the NBA by over a minute more than the next closest guy. That has to come down a little bit, especially with the introduction of Cameron Payne. Perhaps it's not something that Nurse is totally comfortable with. That is understandable. But playing Maxey at the volume Nurse is will inevitably leave him on empty by the playoffs or increase his injury risk, and that would be the worst case scenario.

80 percent of games

By the time Paul George is eligible to return from his suspension, there will be 10 games left in the season. The Sixers' schedule features two sets of back-to-backs in that span. George will likely need to play in at least eight of those 10 games in order to maximize his conditioning leading up to the playoffs and get re-acclimated to real games with his teammates.

32.3 percent on catch-and-shoot threes

As we chronicled at On SI early in the All-Star break, it seems likely that VJ Edgecombe has hit a rookie wall. That was probably always inevitable, but he's shot 32.3 percent on catch-and-shoot threes over the last month. Philadelphia is not proficient enough as a team from beyond the arc to overcome Edgecombe's dip in efficiency on spot-up looks when Embiid and George are unavailable. That number has to come up even if his pull-up three is unsalvageable for the rest of the season.

If the Sixers are relying on a rookie to stabilize their three-point shooting, that's more a commentary on their roster than it is on the rookie. But that's the situation the team is in right now. They can ill afford his slump extending beyond the break.

28 games played

Kelly Oubre Jr. missed about two months of the season with a sprained left knee. He played just 32 games before the All-Star break. Playing the full schedule after the break would not only serve as an excellent indicator of how healthy that knee is, but it would also help stabilize the wings in the wake of George's absence.

9.5-percent offensive rebounding rate on missed field goals

Let's say the worst-case scenario—aside from a new injury—plays out. Embiid's availability is shaky. Maxey's efficiency continues to descend. Edgecombe can't get his legs under his three-point shot. The Sixers' spacing gets cramped and the offense stalls every game. Even the most dominant version of Dominick Barlow is not going to solve all of that by himself. But he can continue to be an above-average offensive rebounder, chasing down long misses and fighting on the glass to give the Sixers extra bites at the apple. Those plays on the margins will help Philadelphia win some coin-flip games.

34.1 percent on threes

It is not a stretch to say that Quentin Grimes' wildly inconsistent offering on offense has hurt the Sixers' bench a great deal. But the unforgivable sin is that he's comfortably fallen below the league average from three. Not only is his scoring inconsistent, but he's not punishing defenses for over-helping away from him.

4.8 fouls per 36 minutes

A per 36 figure for a backup big playing 16 minutes per game doesn't really do a whole lot except illustrate what the eye test tells us. Adem Bona fouls constantly, averaging nearly five per 36 minutes, according to Basketball Reference.

The constant—and often silly—fouls force Nurse to resort to Andre Drummond at inopportune times or get creative to manufacture some center minutes. Bona cutting down on his foul rate would not only help him stay in the game for longer stretches, but it would help him develop some rhythm and thus cut down on mistakes.

70.4-percent opponent efficiency at the rim

The opposition is shooting 6.5 percent better at the rim when Drummond is on the court than when he is off, per Cleaning The Glass. It is past the point of unplayable. It is not as if Drummond is a switch big who is constantly drawn away from the rim to defend in space. He's a drop big who has simply been abysmal trying to protect the basket.

Not only would that number dropping represent stops against high-quality shots, but it would also imply more opportunities against an unset, imbalanced defense for the Sixers' transition offense.

52 percent on short mid-range shots

When Trendon Watford has found rhythm this season, he's found a beautiful touch on floaters in the paint. You could argue his floater, in general, is one of Philadlephia's most efficient shots. On nights when the Sixers have to go bigger, rendering Payne a limited or non-option off the bench, Philadelphia will have to lean into Watford to cobble together some ball-handling off the bench.

That will especially be the case when Maxey is on the court, the long-time friends having established a good two-man game. Inverted pick-and-rolls, short rolls into the middle of the floor, off-ball cuts. All those tools are in play.

33.6 percent on threes

If Justin Edwards is going to commit turnovers as a ball-handler and get blown by on defense, at least shoot better than 33.6 percent from three. Anything to get true wings on the court.

9.4-percent offensive rebounding rate on missed field goals

Jabari Walker and Barlow have nearly identical offensive rebounding rates, yet Walker's is actually a little more impressive because of his size and position. Walker is statistically the most prolific offensive-rebounding forward in the entire NBA. Mind you, his standard contract hasn't even been officially announced yet. Keep fighting the good fight, Mr. Walker.

2.91:1 assist-to-turnover ratio

The next NBA game Payne plays will be the first one he plays this season. Expectations have to be realistic. What's more realistic than going off his career averages? Payne will have opportunities to run the second unit when Maxey hits the bench. It is immensely important that he controls the possession in those minutes. If he can manufacture enough offense to meet his career assist-to-turnover ratio, that would be a decent outcome for his roster spot.

Seven games played

Kyle Lowry has played seven of 54 games this season. All due respect to him, but if Lowry plays seven of the final 28 games, I'm assuming someone got hurt.

22 minutes played

Without knowing the exact number, I want to say Johni Broome has played about 5 minutes of non-garbage time this season. That would leave 17 minutes of garbage time through the first 54 games. If he continues on that trajectory, either the Sixers are administering some beatdowns or someone is beating them down. Either way, it likely won't be a particularly late night at the office. That's a big win.