Quentin Grimes Has the Sixers in the 'Bird Rights Trap' in NBA Free Agency

Quentin Grimes might not be the Sixers' most important free agent this offseason, but he isn't far behind Kelly Oubre Jr. in that regard.

League insiders seem to recognize the pickle that the Sixers are in with him.

"With Jared McCain's emergence as a critical piece of Oklahoma City's push to return to the NBA Finals for a second straight year, the pressure on the 76ers to retain Grimes—whom they chose to keep over McCain at February's trade deadline—grows by the day," ESPN's Tim Bontemps wrote Thursday.

According to Bontemps, "the belief overall is that Grimes will land something at or below the mid-level exception, and ultimately, it will come from the 76ers." (Bontemps didn't clarify which mid-level exception he was referring to, although it's presumably the $15.0 million non-taxpayer MLE.)

"I do think he stays there out of pressure," a West executive told Bontemps. "You have to keep at least one of [Grimes or Oubre], if not both, after that trade.

That's because both Grimes and Oubre have the Sixers in what John Hollinger of The Athletic calls "The Bird Rights Trap."

Grimes and the 'Bird Rights Trap'

As Bontemps noted, keeping both Oubre and Grimes would push the Sixers well into luxury-tax territory. They already have nearly $169 million in guaranteed salary on their books for next season with only six players under contract (not counting the No. 22 overall pick). The tax line is projected to be $201 million.

Since every minimum contract is projected to be nearly $2.5 million, the Sixers would have to get Oubre and/or Grimes back on a major discount to stay under the tax. In all likelihood, they'll do what they've done the past few years—enter the season over the tax, but give themselves the flexibility to duck it at the trade deadline if things go south for them.

That brings us back to the "Bird Rights Trap." Hollinger wrote the following in reference to Gordon Hayward, who left the Boston Celtics in free agency to sign a four-year, $120 million deal with the Charlotte Hornets in 2020. The same analysis applies to both Grimes and Oubre.

"Teams with low salary-cap structures, in other words, are almost completely insulated from the foolishness of their rivals," Hollinger wrote. "If somebody wants to sign one of their players to a bad contract, they can easily pivot to a different option.

"For teams above the cap, however, a situation like Hayward’s presents a different conundrum. For any player worth the mid-level exception or more, the team is in a really tight spot. First, if the player leaves, it can’t come up with a replacement of equal value. Second, even if it can come up with something of nearly equivalent value with the midlevel exception (MLE), you only get one of them … and you just forfeited your opportunity to use it on a player at another position. Use that MLE to plug the first hole and leaks pop up elsewhere."

The Sixers have full Bird rights on both Oubre and Grimes, so they could sign either player to anything up to a max contract even though they're already projected to be over the salary cap. (If they sign either player to anything close to a max deal, they should launch whomever they hire as their new president of basketball operations directly into the sun.)

Both if either Oubre or Grimes walk, the Sixers won't have an easy way to replace them.

Doing the math

Let's say they re-sign Oubre at a starting salary of $15 million and allow Grimes to walk. That would bring them up to nearly $184 million in guaranteed salary with seven players under contract. If they keep the No. 22 pick as well, they'd be at $187.5 million. That would leave them only $13.5 million under the tax line with seven open roster spots.

But since managing partner Josh Harris claims that he's willing to go into the tax, the aprons may be the Sixers' biggest concern. The first apron is currently projected to be $209 million, while the second apron is projected to be $222 million.

If the Sixers cross the first apron, they'll lose access to the $15.0 million non-tax MLE and $5.5 million bi-annual exception and would only have the $6.1 million taxpayer MLE. They also won't be able to acquire anyone via sign-and-trade and couldn't take back more salary in a trade than they sent out.

If they somehow cross the second apron—I have a better chance of marrying Zendaya than that happening—they'd lose access to any mid-level exception and would not be able to aggregate two smaller contracts to acquire a bigger salary. They also couldn't acquire sign-and-trade any of their own free agents for another player.

So, let's go back to our example where they re-sign Oubre starting at $15 million but let Grimes walk. The Sixers would be at roughly $187.5 million with seven open roster spots, which would leave them about $21.5 million under the first apron and $34.5 million under the second apron.

Even if the Sixers left one roster spot open heading into the season, filling out the remaining spots with minimum contracts would add nearly $15 million to their books. That'd give them less than $7 million in wiggle room under the second apron, which would not be enough to use the full non-taxpayer MLE. Using any portion of it beyond the $6.1 million taxpayer MLE would hard-cap them at the first apron, which would likely be a non-starter, particularly in the first few days of free agency.

The TL;DR version: If the Sixers re-sign either Grimes or Oubre, they aren't likely to have access to the full non-taxpayer MLE this offseason. They'd have to let both walk to gain access to that, although they'd then have to replace both players with only the non-tax MLE, the bi-annual exception, minimum contracts and/or the No. 22 overall pick.

That doesn't mean the Sixers should hand Grimes or Oubre a blank check. They need to have a walkaway price in mind for both players.

But both of them have leverage over the Sixers in contract negotiations since the Sixers won't have an easy way to replace either one if they do sign with another team in free agency.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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