What Heat’s Rejected Trade Offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo Tells Us About Bucks’ Offseason Aims

The Giannis Antetokounmpo situation in Milwaukee took center stage in the NBA this week.

The Greek superstar apparently hit his breaking point with the Bucks and demanded the league open an investigation into the franchise over the weekend, claiming he was healthy enough to play but the team wouldn’t clear him. The NBA quickly obliged and launched an inquiry into the situation while Antetokounmpo gave several interviews offering stark takes on the state of the organization and how insulting he felt this treatment was.

The investigation has yet to yield any concrete information about who is in the wrong and, in fact, may have muddied the waters further by finding Antetokounmpo turned down a chance to scrimmage as part of his ramp-up process. But the damage has been done. It’s open season now between Antetokounmpo and his team.

To that point, ESPN’s Shams Charania published an exposé Tuesday detailing the dysfunction behind the scenes in Milwaukee. It is not a flattering piece. The atmosphere is reportedly “as toxic of a team situation as any in the league” and Doc Rivers told the players to Google him as a failed motivational tactic. It spells out what became obvious to those paying attention over the weekend—Antetokounmpo’s time with the Bucks is done and the end is turning ugly, fast.

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Of course, at this point the team has no choice but to wait until the offseason to make that official. The Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes will be the biggest story of the summer in all likelihood. Tuesday’s insider article included information about what a trade package might look like, based off what Milwaukee turned down at this year’s deadline.

Ahead of Feb. 5, the Bucks were reportedly considering an offer from the Heat centered around Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware. But ownership opted against accepting in hopes of a greater return come offseason.

“Team sources said the Bucks seriously considered the Heat's offer, which centered on Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, other players and multiple draft picks and pick swaps,” Charania reported. “Milwaukee contemplated moving forward with Miami on Feb. 4. Ownership, however, believed the best move would be to hold on to Antetokounmpo and receive better offers in the summer.”

The particulars of the draft assets matter quite a bit when it comes to evaluating the quality of the trade offer, but the basics are clear: an established (if overpaid) NBA scorer, a young player with potential, and a haul of picks. On paper it seems an underwhelming return for a two-time MVP who is still capable of nightly double-doubles with a points-per-game average scraping 30. The Bucks, apparently, agreed, much to the chagrin of Miami, still seeking a star to put next to Bam Adebayo and a way to climb out of annual play-in tournament appearances.

It does make for an interesting what-if as far as how this season would have unfolded if Milwaukee pulled the trigger. More than that, it’s informative for what the Bucks’ aims are this offseason when it comes to a return for Antetokounmpo’s supersized talents.

What Bucks want out of a trade package for Antetokounmpo

The above report gives us an idea of Milwaukee’s baseline for considering trade offers.

To be in the running, a team must be willing to offer a productive player in their mid-20s, a genuine up-and-coming prospect, and a variety of draft picks. Which makes sense for the Bucks. To move on from the Antetokounmpo era they need building blocks of all types; starting with established talent on the right side of 30 and a player to inspire some hope in the long-term potential of the franchise. The draft picks are a non-negotiable aspect of the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes for the same reason—to build up after tearing it all down, Milwaukee will need picks. Ideally good ones, but quantity matters just as much.

Thus, that will be the bare minimum for any team unwilling to offer a top player for Antetokounpo’s services. A team like the Magic could always swoop in and offer a Paolo Banchero-type to blow competitiors out of the water. But for teams unwilling or unable to offer such a player, this is what they have to come to the table with.

Last week Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix said the three teams most interested in Antetokounmpo at this year’s deadline—the Heat, Timberwolves, and Warriors—will still be interested come offseason. The only way for Miami to juice up its offer is to include Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Kasparas Jakučionis. Golden State has no enticing young talent to offer but does have a lot of draft picks and veterans who could be redirected in order to further enrich the proposal. If Minnesota were willing to completely blow up the roster to get Antetokounmpo next to Anthony Edwards then that trade package could get very interesting; does an offer featuring Julius Randle and whatever the Wolves can receive for Rudy Gobert get a deal done?

A lot will change between now and the point in the offseason when the Antetokounmpo trade saga can really launch. But those rough outlines of possible trades seem likely to remain as the starting point for a Giannis trade package this summer.

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