Analyzing the actual assets in Miami’s Giannis Antetokounmpo trade package for Bucks

The rumor mill is buzzing about the Miami Heat’s dogged pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo. With just weeks to go until Milwaukee Bucks ownership’s self-imposed deadline to decide on trading their franchise player, Giannis’ future is the biggest non-Finals story in the NBA right now.

Most of the reaction to Miami’s reported trade package has been visceral and instant – it’s either good enough (most often heard from Florida residents) or not even close (especially to those in Wisconsin).

Despite being a Bucks podcaster from Milwaukee (actual Milwaukee, not Greenfield!) I’ve said before that Miami’s offer is good enough – if barely – for the Bucks to accept it. But I wanted to dive even deeper on what exactly the Heat would be sending to Milwaukee in exchange for the franchise’s greatest player.

The goal here isn’t necessarily to sway those for or against the move. Trading a legendary figure like Giannis Antetokounmpo simply will never be acceptable to some Bucks fans, which is completely understandable. But for those Bucks fans who feel the opposite, either that it’s time for Milwaukee to move on or that the Bucks have no choice based on recent reporting, I think Miami’s offer especially is worth careful evaluation due to the assets involved.

There’s no Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren level player coming to Milwaukee, but that doesn’t mean the players the Heat can send are devoid of value or even without star potential. So let’s review them, as well as the draft pick capital, to get a full idea of what the Bucks would be getting from the Miami Heat in exchange for Giannis.

Tyler Herro

A 26-year-old who made an All-Star team in 2025, Tyler Herro is emblematic of why the Heat offer for Giannis is such a flashpoint. Herro had a down season in 2025-26, battling injury and averaging fewer minutes, points, rebounds, and assists than his All-Star campaign as the Heat leaned into Norman Powell and an offensive system that de-emphasized pick and rolls.

Still, the down year for Herro saw him averaging 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game in the 33 contests he was able to suit up for. One positive trend for Herro as he’s continued to evolve as an on-ball weapon is his two-point shooting – after five straight seasons shooting below 50% from 2, Herro shot 56.5% in 2025 and 55.6% last season within the arc.

There is no denying that Herro is a limited defender, to put it generously. His offensive game is likely underrated at this point though. When healthy in 2024-25, Herro averaged 23.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.2 rebounds while shooting 37.5% from 3 on nearly 9 attempted triples per game.

Those are legitimate offensive engine numbers, and Heat lineup data only underscores Herro’s impact. Miami scored 113.9 points per 100 possessions with Herro on, second only to Jimmy Butler’s limited time spent with Miami, and managed just 105.3 points per 100 with Herro off, the lowest figure among Heat regulars.

Herro’s contract is a limiting factor to his value, as his initial rookie extension is set to expire after the coming season. Herro will make $33 million in 2026-27 and need to be extended to avoid hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2027.

There’s been discussion of Herro as a player the Bucks would either immediately reroute for added value or use as expiring money. There’s no harm in a second trade if it gets Milwaukee more assets, but Herro isn’t a toxic asset or a useless player. We’re talking about a legitimate former All-Star at 26 years old who would provide real offensive juice to the Bucks rotation.

Tyler Herro is obviously not on Giannis’ level as a player or asset, but that’s why Miami’s offer is a package and not a one-for-one swap.

Kel’el Ware

Speaking of difficult players to evaluate being part of the Heat trade package, let’s discuss Kel’el Ware! A prized draft target of ours on the Gyro Step podcast ahead of the 2024 NBA Draft, Ware is a legit 7-footer with a 7’4.5” wingspan who shot 39.5% from three last season while hitting above 60% from 2 for the second straight season. What’s not to love?

The biggest flag on Ware is his work ethic, as candidly discussed by Ware’s head coach in Miami Erik Spoelstra.

Spo makes it clear that Kel'el Ware needs to improve his "professionalism." How he approaches every day, playing with force, what he does in the gym, etc.

Strong and purposeful statement from Spo. Here's a clip: pic.twitter.com/y2t1TgeN5f
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) July 12, 2025

In fairness to Ware, whether as part of a PR push or genuine sentiment, Spo did follow up in March to praise Ware’s process, saying he’d been working daily to improve his game since being called out.

Ware improved in nearly every statistical category from his first to second season despite playing virtually the same minutes, averaging 11 points and 9 rebounds in just 22 minutes per game while spacing the floor. Ware only blocks about 1 shot per game still, and his rim protection metrics are good but not great.

The defensive end may be where Ware’s questionable motor holds him back the most. Generally, Ware has been playing in a somewhat tough situation on both ends of the floor next to Bam Adebayo, as the fit with them together has been clunky for Miami.

Legitimate centers who can space the floor are some of the hardest players to find in the NBA. Milwaukee does already have one, but Ware makes more sense than Myles Turner for a team looking to rebuild its core and culture vs maximizing the now with Giannis in the fold. If new Bucks coach Taylor Jenkins can put the big man in the right spots and get him bought in, the tools are there for Ware to be a tremendous two-way center in the NBA for a long time.

Kasparas Jakucionis

Kasparas Jakucionis didn’t have a great rookie season. The 20-year-old 6’5” guard averaged just 6 points and 2.6 rebounds and assists, and while he shot 42.3% from 3 Jakucionis managed just 43.9% from two-point range.

Jakucionis did see a major tick up in effectiveness after the All-Star break, when his points, rebounds, assists, and overall field goal shooting all rose significantly despite his three-ball cooling from an absurd 45.1 percentage down to 39.2%. There’s more to that rise than Jakucionis just getting his legs under him in the NBA.

Miami started the 2025-26 season running remarkably few pick-and-rolls in a revamped offense build more on cutting and Adebayo handling the ball, but then in January and beyond saw a rise in pick-and-roll frequency that likely coincided with Herro returning from injury. (This could also be a point in Herro’s favor as a buy-low asset.)

The inclusion of more ball screens is a huge deal for Jakucionis. The Athletic Senior Writer Sam Vecenie (who had Jakucionis ranked seventh (!) in a loaded 2025 draft class) had this to say about his on-ball game coming out of Illinois:

“Makes incredible reads out of ball screens. Thrives with the screen. Had one of the best pairings in college hoops this year with Tomislav Ivisic, with the two regularly connecting on pops, rolls or pull-ups. Illinois loved running stack pick-and-roll actions to allow him to either find Ivisic or Ben Humrichous above the break, or to allow him to find an easy runway to get all the way to the rim.”

Dropping a then-19-year-old rookie with Jakucionis’ game into a team running a historically-low amount of ball screens per game was obviously not going to result in success for Jakucionis. That’s not criticism of Spo or Miami’s offense, as their approach seemed to work and generated a strong team offense, but it’s fair to say that Jakucionis could be much better off on a team open to letting him maximize his gifts in running more ball screens with skilled bigs and a spaced floor.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. OR Nikola Jovic

Dec 27, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. (11) celebrates with forward Nikola Jovic (5) against the Indiana Pacers during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Personally, I think the first three players from the Miami side simply have to be included for the Bucks to seriously consider the deal. Here we get to more of a decision for Milwaukee. One of Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Nikola Jovic is necessary to make the salaries work, assuming veterans Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins will remain with the Heat as starters.

Going into last season the answer would’ve likely been different, but at this point Jaquez Jr. seems like the clear choice for the Bucks. The runner up for Sixth Man of the Season, Jaquez Jr. bounced back from a tough sophomore season and averaged 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game while anchoring Miami’s bench. His three-point shot remains weak (between 31.1 and 32.2 percent each season), but Jaquez has blossomed anyway. Shooting becomes less of a priority for Milwaukee in a post-Giannis world, although it’s of course still nice to have.

The bigger worry with Jaquez Jr. is that he’s entering restricted free agency after the coming season, meaning while the Bucks would have the ability to keep him no matter what Jaquez Jr. will get more expensive than his current $5.9 million price tag.

There are worse cap sheet fates than paying a good player at or around market value, as evidenced by the other player in this section. The Heat gave Nikola Jovic a four-year, $62.4 million extension that kicks in for the coming season and immediately regretted it.

Jovic’s minutes per game plummeted and he failed to hit 50 games played in his fourth consecutive season while also seeing his three-point shooting and two-point efficiency regress drastically from a year prior.

Could there be more for Jovic to show in a different system where he’s more emphasized, similar to the other Heat targets? Maybe. But the Bucks shouldn’t have any interest in taking on this albatross of a contract to find out when they could get a look at all of Herro, Jakucionis, and Jaquez without committing any long-term money from the jump.

Pelle Larsson

Another Heat draftee in his mid 20s, Pelle Larsson emerged as a reliable two-way player for Miami this past season after being picked 44th overall in 2024. Larsson started 54 games while scoring 11.4 points per game and adding more than three rebounds and assists per contest as well.

Also a limited three-point shooter (32.8% in his two-year career), Larsson projects as more of a role player even in a high-percentile outcome, and will also hit restricted free agency after the coming season. There's just a certain indescribable quality about Larsson that feels like he'll be better as a Heat player than anywhere else.

For those reasons he shouldn't be as high of a priority for the Bucks to acquire, but if Miami is really willing to push in all of their chips then getting a look at Larsson ahead of RFA makes sense. Especially if the Bucks can add in one of their less desirable contracts like Gary Harris' player option to better fill out their roster in return.

Draft Capital

May 10, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view before the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery at Navy Pier. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Miami’s offer doesn’t have the highest number of first-round picks that any suitor could offer, but having multiple picks plus the prospects already covered is what sets it apart from teams like the Warriors, Timberwolves, and Magic who are limited in one sense or another.

Miami can offer the 13th overall pick in the 2026 draft, giving the Bucks a pair of late lottery selections to spend in a deep draft in a range they're already heavily scouting. The Heat can also offer future first-round picks in 2031 and 2033 plus a lone 2033 second-round pick. And maybe a fourth first-round pick as well, if the teams get creative on pick protections.

A protected pick sent to Charlotte that could convey in either 2027 or 2028 limits Miami from sending a 2029 outright first as well, as the Stepien rule mandates each team has a first-round pick in at least every other draft year. That said, the Heat could potentially offer a protected 2029 first that would convey only if the Heat send Charlotte that first in 2027. That '27 pick is lottery protected, so as long as Miami makes the playoffs with Giannis next season the Bucks would then get three future firsts plus the pick this year.

Having to wait until potentially 2031 to start cashing in on future draft assets is a double-edged sword: not having really any picks between 2026 and then is brutal for the Bucks without their best player ever, but also betting against prime Giannis teams doesn’t feel especially prudent.

Maybe Miami finds another younger star to join the Greek Freak, but at the moment Milwaukee certainly has better odds getting good picks from a team with late-30s Giannis than the prime version who just dominated the NBA when healthy.

Apr 29, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) fight for the ball during game five of the first round for the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Total Package

Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., maybe Pelle Larsson, the 13th overall pick in 2026, and future firsts in 2029 (maybe), 2031, and 2033. There’s an approximately zero percent chance any of these pieces individually measures up to the value Giannis Antetokounmpo has to the Milwaukee Bucks. That is true of basically every realistic trade package for any superstar in the NBA. Players like Giannis aren’t dealt to accumulate value; they’re dealt out of necessity.

Insiders continue to report that Giannis wants to be traded. The 2025-26 Bucks season was a mess both on and off the court, in part due to Giannis’ apparent lack of belief and trust in the Bucks organization.

If the team feels they can’t rely on Giannis signing the contract and remaining bought in with the Bucks, there was never going to be a world where Milwaukee got back a player on his level.

The Bucks ended up in the same place with the last generational big man to win a title in Milwaukee. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar missed a large part of the 1974-75 season in which the Bucks struggled mightily and won less than 40 games, missing the playoffs, same as Giannis and these Bucks did last season.

Kareem shared the teams he was interested in going to, same as Giannis is indirectly doing by giving his thumbs up to certain suitors and thumbs down to others through media reports.

Kareem was traded for Elmore Smith, Brian Winters, Dave Meyers, and Junior Bridgeman. Winters, Meyers, and Bridgeman were all staples of the next Bucks team to have a winning record when the 1978 Bucks won 44 games and a playoff series against Phoenix in Don Nelson’s first full year at the helm.

Winters and Bridgeman both have their numbers retired in the rafters of Fiserv Forum, alongside Kareem and one day doubtlessly Giannis.

Obviously none of the four matched Kareem as players, but the Bucks got enough back to build a core that ended up competitive with the legendary Celtics and 76ers throughout the 1980s. That’s the approach these Bucks must take too if they’re forced to make a deal.

There won’t be one player any team offers who can slide in for Giannis from the jump. It’s about giving the Bucks both the opportunity to find one through the draft or player development, and the infrastructure for such a player to succeed in Milwaukee when and if they do arrive.

Between young players who weren’t maximized in Miami but have demonstrated potential to do more and a collection of draft picks now and later, the Heat can offer building blocks for Taylor Jenkins to build into a sustainable winner in Milwaukee.

That is a better path forward for the asset-depleted Bucks than sliding in one big-time player into Giannis’ spot and hoping to have better results with a worse player, or than playing chicken with Giannis and daring him not to sign the extension if the organization truly believes he's checked out.

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