Projecting a Win Total for Milwaukee in First Post-Giannis Season

In their first season post Giannis, the Milwaukee Bucks are projected to finish as the third worst team in the Eastern Conference, only ahead of the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets, their win totals hovering around a comical 24.5 games.

In the first year under Taylor Jenkins and the loss of franchise icon Giannis Antetokounmpo, the projection seems reasonable, but it's not like the Milwaukee Bucks will be a bad basketball team, and with the limited availability of Giannis last season, Milwaukee should honestly be much better than that, although they still may be among the worst teams in the East.

But with that said, what is a reasonable prediction for the Bucks this season?

First look at Tyler Herro as a member of the Milwaukee Bucks! 🦌

How will Herro fit in Milwaukee? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/CKFNF1Bj3P
— Courtside Buzz (@CourtsideBuzzX) July 12, 2026

25 games is way too low of a projection no matter what. Last year's team won a measly 32 games, but this year's team won't be 7 games worse. They lost Giannis and Bobby Portis but added two first round picks in Brayden Burries and Nate Ament, a 25ppg scorer in Tyler Herro, and they have plenty of talented young players that may take that next step, most notably Kel'el Ware.

The Bucks bench was poor last season, but adding Jaime Jaquez Jr, who was a runner-up for the sixth man of the year award, was huge, then you talk about the potential development of Kasparas Jakucionis, Pete Nance, and Ousmane Dieng, there is honestly a lot to be excited about, especially under Taylor Jenkins who proved to be quite good at developing young talent in Memphis.

Milwaukee still has veterans Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner --both of whom are traded in the perfect world-- that provide scoring and veteran leadership for one of the NBA's youngest teams.

A fair projection is somewhere between 34-38 wins with Milwaukee potentially being on the outside looking in of the NBA's play-in tournament.

At 13th overall, Nate Ament has the potential to be a steal for the Milwaukee Bucks

He’s got physical gifts coupled with advanced shotmaking potential

And if he can continue refining those tools by adding strength and improving his handle?

Watch out 👀 pic.twitter.com/o4C1Tp7xOh
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) July 16, 2026

Now for the opinons of other writers here OnSi

Amir Motameni

"I think 35 wins is a fair expectation for the Bucks next season. It's only a small improvement from last season's 32 wins. The Bucks are entering a new era without Giannis, but the Bucks still have some young talent, and all the folk traded from the Heat have something to prove. Tyler Herro will give the Bucks a legit scoring option, Kel’el Ware may have a much bigger role than he did in Miami. Jaime Jaquez was the runner up for the Sixth Man of the Year award. These guys can help the Bucks get a few more wins, but let’s not forget they are a rebuilding team. I think the Bucks will be a middling team and will struggle in the East, and a 35-47 record feels about right."

Ethan J. Skolnick

"While there is an interesting assemblage of young talent on the Bucks roster, with more moves still possibly to be made, it's missing something.... A star. And if the Bucks were under .500 in the 36 games that Giannis Antetokoumpo played last season, it's hard to see them finishing above .500 without him, in an Eastern Conference that appears improved overall, with fewer teams tanking and more trying to compete. Milwaukee is guard-heavy, without a lot of proven players up front, and it may move one or two of the veterans still around (Myles Turner and Kyle Kuzma). The best case scenario is that someone like Kel'el Ware or Brayden Burries or Kasparas Jakucionis really pops and that, along with continued progress from Ryan Rollins and consistent scoring from Tyler Herro, gives the Bucks a shot to remain competitive most nights. But this appears like a multi-year project for Taylor Jenkins, and 35-47 in the first season seems about right."

Tre Allen

"I think the best-case scenario for the Milwaukee Bucks this season would be to win 40-45 games. The Bucks don’t have Giannis anymore so immediately people are low on Milwaukee and right fully so. A new coach and pretty much a new team will take time before they’ll jell. While the Bucks will have Ryan Rollins Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez and Kel’el to help lead the way, but as right now, they’re lacking the star power to compete for a high seed. But what they do have is youth and depth. If head coach Taylor Jenkins can get his new team on the same page and string along wins throughout the season, I can see the Bucks surprising people. I think the best-case scenario for their current roster would be a play-in team which would be around 40-45 wins and that would be a great start in the first year of the post Giannis era"

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