What the Bucks hunt in the upcoming draft

We have established the odds of finding an All-NBA player in the last article. Now, let’s focus on what a prototypical archetype for a guard or wing looks like. If the Milwaukee Bucks are going to accelerate their rebuild post Giannis Antetokounmpo the 2026 NBA Draft must be a success. What are the odds of the Bucks getting an All-NBA player in the draft?

The data since 2003 shows that All-NBA players have a distinct profile. There will always be outliers, but that occurs in any data set. There are no absolutes when dealing with human beings. We will look at the averages of these players in body fat percentage, hand size, height, weight, and wingspan.

This doesn’t mean that actual basketball stats like 3PT%, ASTs, eFG%, and FTr do not matter. This is simply a framework to help identify a franchise-changing talent.

Here are some of the names this data was derived from: Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Dwyane Wade, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Stephen Curry, and Jimmy Butler. There were also outliers such as John Wall, Ja Morant, Derrick Rose, and Devin Booker. Each of them had at least one metric that fell outside the norm. James Harden, for example, measured at 10.10% body fat at the NBA Combine, which is an extreme outlier.

The first category we will look at is body fat percentage. The average is 5.82% for a franchise-changing type of player. This is the biggest indicator of overall fitness for a prospect outside of observing them in practice settings. Unfortunately, most players refuse to participate in body fat testing at the Combine these days.

The next category is hand size. This is extremely important when separating players who are great from those who are merely average. The average hand size for this class of player is 9.4 inches. This allows for better finishing at the rim. On the defensive end, hand size comes into play when defending passing lanes or creating deflections.

Height is one of the most talked-about measurements at the NBA Combine. It is an important metric, but there is one that matters even more. The average height for guards and wings in this group is approximately 6’4½”. This is critical when considering drafting a small guard high in the lottery. When I warned people about Rob Dillingham in the 2024 draft class, he fell below the height, weight, and hand-size thresholds.

Finally, we have the height-to-wingspan ratio. I have never found a franchise-altering player with a negative wingspan-to-height ratio. The average difference is 5.4 inches. For example, Kawhi Leonard stands 6’6” with a 7’3” wingspan. That is a nine-inch differential, which helps explain both his ability to finish in the lane and his impact as a defensive nightmare.

The Milwaukee Bucks do not have a clear path forward. Finding a two-way, playmaking guard or wing in the 2026 NBA Draft who measures over 6’4½”, weighs 204-plus pounds, and owns a positive height-to-wingspan ratio of at least 5.4 inches is not just ideal, it’s necessary.

Putting that archetype on the next version of the Bucks roster will give them a chance to add a franchise-altering piece rather than just another rotation player. The margins are thin in the league, and history shows that betting on this profile is how teams close the gap between good and truly great.