What Taylor Jenkins's Early Bucks Tenure Could Look Like

The Milwaukee Bucks, on the surface, are a bit of a mess.

They finished 31-51 this season, last among teams in the Eastern Conference that didn't spend the entire 82 games trying to tank -- that, for Milwaukee, started much later. The superstar is out-again, in-again, out-again, in-again depending on the day, or minute, and the roster is bare of high upside talent, even as a couple of players exceeded expectations.

Taylor Jenkins took the head coaching post anyway -- even though he would seem to have other opportunities coming at some point if he wanted.

We will find out soon whether Jenkins did so because he believes that Giannis Antetokounmpo can be convinced to extend his contract and stick around, or whether he's comfortable that the return the Bucks would receive in a trade would kickstart a quick rebuild.

But none of this is all that unfamiliar to Jenkins, who, after leaving his Bucks assistant job after the 2019 season, took over the Memphis Grizzlies from the fired J.B. Bickerstaff (who has had two successful head coaching staffs since). That team Jenkins inherited? It won only two more games than this Bucks team just did: 33-49.

The Grizzlies' top players in 2018-19 were holdovers from a prior build (Marc Gasol and Mike Conley) plus a rookie first-rounder (Jaren Jackson Jr.). For the next season, the roster was somewhat transformed. No more Gasol and Conley. Ja Morant, drafted No. 2, added.

Jenkins won more games the following season (34) in fewer games, as the season was shorted by seven games due to the Covid-19 epidemic. The top three scorers -- Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jackson Jr. -- were 20, 24 and 20 years old respectively. All 10 of the top scorers by average were under 30. And the Grizzlies went from 30th in the NBA in pace to sixth. That all set the stage for the Grizzlies to become fringe contenders the next season.

So is that what's coming for Milwaukee, especially if Giannis is dealt?

The Bucks leaned on two other players in their 30s this season (Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis Jr.) even as they worked in younger players such as Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr. and Ousmane Dieng. They slipped to 23rd in pace.

You can expect that Jenkins will address that. One of Milwaukee's few strengths under Doc Rivers this past season was its quantity and quality of three-point shooting; that wasn't the case for many of Jenkins' teams in Memphis, particularly the quantity part.

In his first season in Memphis, the Grizzlies slipped a little defensively, but some of that was likely due to Gasol's absence, since he had been an anchor on that end. But the next two seasons, the Grizzlies improved from 15th to 6th and then 4th in defensive net rating.

Similar improvement would be welcome in Milwaukee.

It all starts with the Giannis decision.

But from there, we will see what type of team Jenkins works with Jon Horst to build -- and you can bet both pathways have already been discussed.

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