Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Boston Celtics This Season

Boston Celtics training camp is only a few weeks away, finally giving us a chance to get some answers to our questions about the team.

I’ve spent a lot of time going through what the team and its players might be, so let’s put it all together and see what happens if everything goes right, or if everything goes wrong, knowing that the best odds are that the Celtics land somewhere in the middle.

The Best-Case Scenario

Normally I’d leave health out of it because that's everyone’s best-case scenario, but because of Mitchell Robinson and Paul George’s histories, not to mention Jayson Tatum beginning his first full season on a surgically-repaired Achilles Tendon, it’s an important starting point.

I don’t really expect any roadblocks with Tatum’s health, at least as it pertains to his Achilles, but a best-case scenario would be Tatum returning to full durability and playing most back-to-backs. I’m not sure what Boston’s plan for Tatum will be, but a normal season of 75 or so games played would be ideal.

As for Robinson and George, I can’t even pretend that they're going to play 70 games for the Celtics. Robinson played 60 last season for the Knicks so I’ll set that as his best-case, while George’s might be closer to 50-55. If Boston could get those games from Robinson and George, AND get them healthy for a playoff run, they’d be in a good spot to make a little noise in the playoffs.

To really be at their best, Tatum will have to become a true distributor. There's no doubt he can average 30 points per game, and he might still have to, but the true best-case for Boston would be Tatum setting a new career high in assists (his highest average was six per game). If he can turn two of his three-point attempts into assists, it could lead to the most optimized Tatum we’ve ever seen in Boston.

I think Tatum should max his threes-attempted average at about seven, turning a couple of his early pull-up attempts into drives and, potentially, assists. Obviously, the emphasis is on making the right play, but sometimes that's a coin flip. In recent seasons, Tatum has seemed to lean more heavily into choosing the shot, but if he chooses something else, it could trigger other best-case scenarios around the team.

Derrick White can get more catch-and-shoot tries, which should help him improve his overall three-point percentage. White is a main character in Boston’s ultimate, everything-goes-right story this season. A return to strong shooting would be a game-changer for Boston because it would not only take some of the pressure off Tatum to do everything, it would open things up for others to live their best lives this season.

One of Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, or Jordan Walsh will have to separate himself from the pack at some point for all to go right with Boston. There will still be situational room for everyone, but a team is at its best when there is a solid eight or nine-man rotation. Going 11 or 12 deep seems fun, and it’s great to have talent up and down the roster, but teams want a few guys on the bench to clearly separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Ideally, Scheierman could show enough to be a consistent starter with the Celtics, moving Sam Hauser to the bench and giving Brad Stevens a solid player to include in trade talks, whenever those happen.

I’m still sticking with Payton Pritchard as a sixth man because the Celtics will need to stagger their ball-handlers and Mike Conley isn’t really viable as a regular contributor anymore. Even in this best-case scenario, I think Pritchard off the bench maximizes both his abilities and the Celtics roster needs. In this scenario, Pritchard’s shooting climbs back up to about 40% from three and a little extra efficiency and foul-drawing gets his production up over 20 points per game.

And stylistically, a best-case Celtics team is a defensive rebounding juggernaut behind Robinson, Neemias Queta, and Tatum. That would allow them to run off misses, get some more easy looks in the paint, and draw some more free throws.

This version of the Celtics could easily contend for a top-three seed in the East and rack up about 55 wins. I know last year’s team won 56, but everyone’s totals were inflated by a few games thanks to the tanking. The 2027 Celtics winning more than 50 games would be a massive accomplishment, and maybe a bigger one that last year.

The Worst-Case Scenario

The most succinct way to put this section is to say the opposite of all that stuff I wrote happens and things go south.

The worst development the Celtics could face would be White never finding his shooting touch again, and then having to determine if his defense and other offensive contributions make his $30-plus million contract acceptable in the second apron era. Of all the things that could go wrong for the Celtics, this one concerns me the most.

Because if White can’t find his shot anymore, then a hard decision has to be made about a player who does a lot of other things to help the team win. And while those things might be enough reason to keep him around, are they enough to justify his salary?

White is critical to Boston’s success. Resetting the repeater tax this season might be his saving grace if the shooting abandons him, because the Celtics could go over the tax line the next season and pay a much more palatable bill.

Another worst-case scenario for Boston would be stagnation from Gonzalez, who I see as a premium prospect. I think future good versions of the Celtics include Gonzalez as a starter, and though I’m not expecting a massive leap yet, I would like to see some signs of progression in his game. Just being who he was last season isn’t quite enough. And of course, any sort of regression would be problematic.

Stylistically, the Celtics being the slowest team in the league again would be a bit of a problem for me. It’s not the biggest deal, which is why I’m mentioning it towards the bottom here, but it’s still something that needs to improve somewhat. They need to get stops and get out in transition at least a little more than “hardly ever.”

If the Celtics don’t get material improvement from their young wings, if White still can’t shoot, and if they remain a slow-down, half-court offense, then they're going to have some problems next season. I still think the Celtics are a good regular season team in their worst-case scenario, but because the East will probably be very tightly packed, good won’t be good enough to avoid a road series to start the playoffs … or worse, a play-in berth. It’s a style that won’t get them far in the playoffs either, which means another Brad Stevens press conference explaining what’s next in early May.

Like I wrote at the top, I still think Boston lands in the middle. Most of these guys will be at least as good as they were last season, so I don’t think there's much risk of the team cratering. Robinson will help a lot, and I think Tatum will look very good. But a few breaks one way or the other could have a big impact on how far they go.

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