Three Reasons To Believe Jayson Tatum is Absolutely Coming Back Soon

Jayson Tatum hasn’t committed to coming back this season. It’s a reasonable position to take considering he’s still rehabbing, and with that brings a possibility of unknown issues or setbacks. But his return to practice is a great sign.

“It's been a long journey,” he said in his first media availability of the season. “It's just like the progression of rehab. It was the next step. Doesn't mean that I'm coming back or I'm not. It’s just following the plan. So it's just another step."

He’s expressed a little trepidation about returning because he doesn’t want to mess up the flow of what’s been going well. At the same time, it hasn’t slowed his progression at all. There are three big reasons to believe Tatum is on his way back this season, regardless of what he says.

Five-on-five scrimmaging means he’s fully healed and ramping up

This one is basic but important.

Yes, this is all part of his continued rehab, but so are whatever games he plays when he first comes back. The technical “rehab” isn’t over until he plays without any more soreness than usual and is off his minutes restriction.

So while he’s still rehabbing, the Achilles tendon itself is fully healed. When asked what his next steps are, Tatum said, “Just more conditioning, more live things, getting acclimated to playing five on five, and contact and stuff like that.”

He didn’t say strengthening. He didn’t say anything about testing the tendon. Tatum said conditioning, playing five-on-five, and getting used to contact.

So I repeat, the tendon itself is fully healed, and now he’s moved on to the cardio ramp-up to return to NBA basketball.

To paraphrase a comment he made at the beginning of the season, he’s not doing all this not to come back. He’s not ramping up now just so he can sit out. Tatum is too competitive to do all this work and cross the finish line.

He’s talking to the media again

The NBA has rules when it comes to players talking. Here’s the relevant part for Tatum.

“If a player is injured but expected to return during the regular season, the player must be available to the Media once he has missed two weeks of game action. In the latter case, after that mandatory media session, the player is not required to hold a Media availability session until he returns to team practice. Once the player returns to practice, he is required to be available to the media within two days of his return and then a minimum of once per week until he returns to game action. Once he returns to games, normal access rules apply.”

First, notice this is the “expected to return” policy.

Second, he has now held the media session within two days of his return. He didn’t talk to us because he missed us. He talked on Tuesday because he had to.

Now he has to talk every week until he comes back. The All-Star break eliminates one week, but after that, Tatum will regularly be made available until he is fully back.

The team is following the media rules in play for a player’s return. Tatum wouldn’t do that if he didn’t have to.

It’s why they got Nikola Vucevic

It’s one of the first reactions many of us had after the trade. Here’s what I said right after the trade happened.

“This feels like more of a win-now move, which raises questions about Jayson Tatum’s potential return. If Tatum is coming back soon, there is less of a need for Simons, and more of a need to create room for him with a big who can get out of the way.”

Now, Jake Fischer reported on the Stein Line substack that his sources told him “the Celtics' decision to acquire Nikola Vučević from Chicago before the trade deadline, in exchange for Anfernee Simons’ expiring contract, was a clear indicator that Boston believes Tatum will indeed return for a postseason run.”

We can play the mental game of spinning this as Boston traded Simons for Tatum and Vucevic. Tatum can slot right into the Simons role because he’ll probably come off the bench whenever he does return to the lineup. Vucevic now opens up space with his shooting ability, giving Tatum a little extra room to maneuver.

So, when is he coming back, then?

First, he’s still not ready yet. He probably needs more time to ramp up. Second, he wants to do it at home.

He’s out against Chicago, and then we’re into the All-Star break followed by a Western Conference road trip. That means his first chance to return is February 27 against Brooklyn. Personally, I’ve been saying early March for a very long time, so I’m not going to change my tune now.