MVP Rankings: Can Kawhi Leonard Actually Win the Race?

Kawhi Leonard has established himself as an MVP candidate over the last two months. Where does he actually rank?

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Amid the disappointing start and unexpected developments surrounding the Los Angeles Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is somehow having the best season of his career. In the last game before the All-Star break and on the second night of a back-to-back in Houston, Leonard put the Clippers on his shoulders, scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to secure the comeback win. Even after losing James Harden and Ivica Zubac, the 34-year-old superstar didn't skip a beat and is looking as physically and athletically fit as ever.

This has catapulted Leonard's name into the MVP race. With the NBA's new rule that dictates award winners have to play a minimum of 65 games in the regular season and a slew of injuries the MVP frontrunners have suffered already, Leonard may have a chance to win his first regular-season MVP award. But, how realistic is this chance?

1- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2- Nikola Jokic

SGA is currently sidelined with an injury, but has played 49 games. It's safe to assume that he will have no trouble hitting the minimum-game requirement. The OKC Thunder are the most dominant team in the league once again, with the best defensive rating and the fourth-best offensive rating. They have a whopping +15.7 net rating when SGA is on the floor, despite dealing with significant injuries to several key starters. MVP is his award to lose.

Jokic would have given SGA a run for his money, but he is only allowed to miss one more game before he is deemed ineligible for the award. He still has an incredible case as the best offensive player in the world and the star with the best on/off metrics in the league. But if the MVP is about the cumulative value you add to your team, missing 16 of his team's 55 games certainly weakens Jokic's argument.

3- Cade Cunningham
4- Kawhi Leonard
5- Victor Wembanyama

There is an argument to be made for Leonard to be as high as three. Some might look at the standings and see the Clippers ninth in the Western Conference and disqualify Leonard, but numbers tell a different story. LA is actually 10.8 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor than when he is off, per Cleaning the Glass. That net point swing is third in the league among players who have played at least 1300 minutes.

Leonard's case is strong in impact metrics as well, ranking fourth among award-eligible players, behind SGA, Jokic, and Victor Wembanyama in Estimated Plus-Minus. The fact that Leonard has a career-high usage rate of 33.5%, with a 61.9% True Shooting, is the main reason why the Clippers are an elite offense when he is on the floor, despite lacking high-end talent.

Cade Cunningham and Leonard should be considered in the same tier of MVP candidates, but the Pistons star has a clear games and minutes advantage. Cunningham doesn't have the usage rate or the efficiency of Leonard on offense, but he is an important part of one of the best defenses in the league. He is the heart and soul of Detroit on both ends of the floor, and the fact that he has led them to a 40-13 record so far with limited talent around him should earn him the spot behind Jokic and SGA.

There are plenty of other candidates who could have secured the fifth spot on this fake MVP ballot, most notably, Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell, but Wembanyama's two-way impact puts him above the rest.

The French superstar only plays 29 minutes per game, but scores 24.4 points per game on an impressive 62.4% True Shooting and 32.2% usage rate. The best part is that his offense is the weaker part of his game. He is easily the best defensive player in the league and should be a front-runner to win the Defensive Player of the Year. He has already missed 14 games this season, so his eligibility may be in question, but if he is there at the end of the season, it will be hard to keep him off ballots.

Can Kawhi Leonard Win MVP?

Unfortunately, the Clippers lost too many games early in the season. Leonard took a little time to round into form. If he comes up short, the first two months of the season will be a big reason why. But if he keeps playing the way he has, he will be on track to make the All-NBA First Team. Depending on injuries and availability for the rest of the field, Leonard could make it a fascinating race down the stretch. For now, however, SGA should be considered a heavy favorite.

What is more important for Clippers fans, however, is the fact that this is even a debate. Nobody was expecting an MVP-caliber season from Kawhi before the season, and especially after the 6-21 start. What Leonard is doing at this stage of his career has been nothing short of extraordinary.