Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals Game 4: Three Bold Predictions As New York Looks to Bounce Back at MSG

After dropping Game 3 at home to San Antonio, the Knicks seek to avoid giving home court advantage right back to the Spurs.

Jalen Brunson’s Knicks took issue with how their Game 3 NBA Finals loss to the Spurs was officiated. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Knicks probably knew it wouldn’t be so easy. While they took Games 1 and 2 of the 2026 NBA Finals in San Antonio, both games against the Spurs were close contests that came down to the final minutes.

San Antonio bounced back in Game 3, defeating New York 115–111 in the first Finals game at Madison Square Garden since 1999, when the two franchises previously met and the Spurs kicked off their Tim Duncan-led dynastic period with a championship. The Knicks still have control of the series, but we’ll find out Wednesday just how much psychic damage that Game 3 defeat—which snapped a 13-game playoff winning streak for New York—ultimately dealt.

Based on how they’ve handled this playoff run so far, it would be foolish to doubt the Knicks. This is the team that rebounded from down 2–1 against the Hawks, came back from down 22 to the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals and from down 14 to the Spurs in Game 1 of this series.

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San Antonio is no slouch either, of course. This has been an evenly matched series, and the Spurs have the momentum after Game 3’s win, with the chance to even things up and take back home court advantage before the series returns to Front Bank Center for Saturday’s Game 5.

Ahead of Wednesday’s Game 4 showdown at Madison Square Garden, here are three bold predictions for the matchup, including a pick for the game.

Karl-Anthony Towns has his strongest offensive performance of the series after a quiet Game 3

Karl-Anthony Towns was held to 11 points in Game 3 after two strong games in the Knicks’ wins in San Antonio. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Karl-Anthony Towns’s play was one of the stories of the first two games of the NBA Finals, both for his impressive defense on Victor Wembanyama but also his efficient offensive play, putting him in early Finals MVP discussions.

Towns scored 18 points on 7-of-15 shots with 12 rebounds and four assists in Game 1, forcing Wembanyama to an inefficient 26 points on 6-of-21 shots. In Game 2, KAT was incredibly efficient, scoring 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting (3-for-5 from three) with 13 boards and another four assists, and tied for a game-high +11 plus/minus. Wemby scored 29 but again had to work for it, putting up 21 shots to get there.

The script flipped a bit in Game 3, as Wembanyama went off for 32 on just 11-of-18 shooting while knocking down a pair of threes, while Towns went for just 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting with eight rebounds in 38 minutes, arguably his quietest game of the playoffs.

Throughout Towns’s career, that kind of Game 3 would have been a major red alert. During this playoff run, he’s looked like a different player—being the focal point for much of New York’s offense as both a scorer and a facilitator. He’s been a force on the boards and has attacked Wembanyama more readily than just about any player we’ve seen this season.

KAT has never played with more confidence, and right now it doesn’t seem like one middling performance will be a huge setback. With the MSG crowd roaring behind him, expect Towns to go off for 24-plus points, 12-plus rebounds and knock down a few big threes.

Dylan Harper establishes himself as a go-to option for the Spurs late

Rookie guard Dylan Harper already looks like one of the Spurs’ most dynamic scorers. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Harper, a rookie who just turned 20 in March, is already flirting with superstardom during this postseason. In Game 3 against the Trail Blazers, with Wembanyama sidelined due to a concussion, he dropped 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting, knocking down 4-of-5 threes, along with 10 rebounds.

The following series against the Timberwolves, after Wemby was ejected in Game 4 for his flagrant foul on Naz Reid, it was Harper who nearly led the Spurs to a win, scoring 24 points on just 11 shots in 27 minutes as San Antonio fell 114–109 without its best player.

Game 1 against the Thunder set the stage for San Antonio’s thrilling Western Conference finals win, and Harper scored 24 points in 47 minutes, adding 11 rebounds, six assists and seven steals in a double overtime victory.

The Spurs have plenty of mouths to feed, and it makes sense that coach Mitch Johnson so often relies on De’Aaron Fox, the only true veteran guard firmly in San Antonio’s rotation, in crunch time. And while Fox has struggled to score in this series—and may not be 100% after suffering an ankle injury earlier in the playoffs—he has made big plays, especially down the stretch in the Spurs’ Game 3 win. But Harper is on the verge of emerging as a special player for San Antonio. The fact that he’s stepped up in such a big way when Wembanyama has been out is very telling, both of his abilities and the increased trust he’s built with his team.

After a tough shooting night in Game 3, Harper will bounce back for his first 20-plus-point outing of the NBA Finals and will have the ball in his hands in the game’s final frames, as the Knicks sell-out to stop Wemby.

The Spurs open up another big early lead putting MSG on edge, but Jalen Brunson takes over late to put the Knicks up 3–1

The star-studded Knicks crowd was loud on Monday, but after a loss to the Spurs, they could be on edge in Game 4 Wednesday. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

If there’s been one constant in this series, it has been the Spurs’ quick starts. San Antonio is +28 in the first quarter across three games, and entered the second quarter up at least eight. They’re -35 across the other nine quarters played so far in this series.

Knicks fans are certainly confident enough to remember the team’s many impressive comebacks throughout these playoffs, and the fact that the Spurs have come out hot each game while the Knicks have often dominated the second and third quarters. However, staying poised in that situation is much easier said than done.

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Ahead of Game 3, Fox stressed that San Antonio was actively looking to “try to take the crowd out of it as quickly as possible,” looking back at how the Spurs jumped on the Thunder early on the road in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals. New York fans have gotten so wrapped up in this Knicks team, and started to taste that elusive first championship since 1973 after going up 2–0 in San Antonio. If the Spurs take another double-digit lead into the second quarter, there’ll be a real tension and sense of anxiety in the air at MSG.

Of course, the veteran-laden Knicks have the perfect answer for it: guard Jalen Brunson, whose veins contain colder ice water than anyone else in the NBA right now. Game 4 should be another tight contest between these two evenly matched teams, and will finish with Brunson going blow-for-blow with Wembanyama, Harper & Co.

And after nearly securing a 3–0 lead by scoring 12 points in the fourth quarter of Monday’s game, Brunson will come up big once again, this time knocking down the game-winning shot in Game 4’s waning moments to give New York a 3–1 edge as the series heads back to San Antonio.

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