Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals Game 5: Three Bold Predictions With New York on Verge of NBA Championship

The Knicks will try to clinch their third NBA title in Game 5. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals was a true all-timer that will be remembered for generations to come. The Knicks pulled off the greatest comeback in Finals history by coming back from down 29 points in front of a roaring Madison Square Garden to devastate the Spurs and take a 3–1 lead in the series.

One win stands between New York and its third title in franchise history, the first since 1973. After Wednesday’s remarkable show, that outcome feels inevitable. But San Antonio has proven its resilience a few times this postseason. Victor Wembanyama & Co. are not inclined to give up or make things easy.

As Sports Illustrated has been doing all series long, here are three bold predictions as the Knicks try to close out the Spurs and raise the Larry O’Brien trophy in tonight’s Game 5.

De’Aaron Fox bounces back in a big way

De’Aaron Fox, the most experienced guard in the Spurs’ rotation, has struggled late in the postseason and was blocked by OG Anunoby on a late San Antonio possession in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Fair or not, Fox will end up the face of the Spurs’ Game 4 collapse when we look back upon the disaster in the future. He finished with numbers largely in line with his playoff run—18 points on 6-for-16 shooting and seven assists to go with a pair of steals. But his mistakes down the stretch doomed his team, and there was no bigger miscue than his decision to try for a layup with San Antonio up by one and 10 seconds remaining. OG Anunoby swatted it off the glass and Fox fouled Jose Alvarado a few seconds later as both teams scrambled, setting up Anunoby’s hero moment on the offensive glass with a second left.

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It was a failure in the biggest moment of the Spurs’ season and it came from the team’s best veteran player. It was also a prime example of Fox’s struggles this season; his production has largely been more in line with a solid role player than a star on a $221 million deal. It’s worked out well enough for San Antonio because of Wemby’s leap but since the superstar still struggles to create on his own, Fox is needed to set the table. The ball is in his hands often and last night he let his team down in those moments.

Our bet is that he bounces back in a big way. Fox earned that contract for a reason. He remains incredibly shifty as a scorer and can create enough space to get a shot off on anybody—even Anunoby, the Knicks’ best defender who couldn’t stop Fox from making the biggest shot of Monday’s Game 3. He should be extremely motivated to make up for his various miscues that contributed to Game 4’s collapse. To be more specific, Fox will have his first 30-point game of the postseason and will be the best player on the floor for San Antonio.

So does Josh Hart

It wasn’t as costly as De’Aaron Fox’s late layup attempt, but Josh Hart bricked a fast-break layup attempt as the Knicks were down one late in the game. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Hart was unusually solemn after Game 4’s epic comeback because of a close brush with basketball infamy. With two minutes to go the Knicks were only down by one when Fox turned the ball over and Hart found himself alone in the open court with a wide-open lane to the rim—and he missed. He smoked the transition layup and, if New York had lost, it could have ended up on the Patrick Ewing/John Starks pantheon of massive Knicks mistakes in big moments that killed their championship hopes. As such, Hart made sure to thank Anunoby during his postgame press conference, sharing that his teammate saved him from a “lifetime of regret.”

The mistake didn’t wind up costing his team, but Hart had it on his mind after the biggest New York win in decades and it should stay there as he prepares for Game 5. Therefore, Saturday is setting up to be a big night for Hart. He’s going to crash the boards with the same reckless abandon we saw when he racked up 15 rebounds in Game 1 and hit his threes the same way he did in Game 3. It’ll be a big-time performance from the beloved Knicks role player that will ensure his botched layup will fade into the annals of history.

Knicks don’t finish the job ... yet

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs will need to win at home in Game 5 to extend the NBA Finals against the Knicks. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It’s a fair stance to take that Game 4’s loss sealed the Spurs’ fate in this series. Blowing that kind of lead in that kind of moment is demoralizing beyond words. What could have been a 2–2 series going back to San Antonio is instead 3–1 with momentum overwhelmingly going the Knicks’ way. Lesser losses have sent teams into tailspins in the regular season, much less the Finals. And ultimately, that should prove true.

But these Spurs are a tough bunch. They fought back from down 3–2 against the defending champion Thunder and took Game 3 after throwing homecourt advantage out the window by dropping the opening two games of the Finals. They may not have the experience or the gas to get across the finish line and win a championship this season ... but they will stand tall in Game 5.

The Spurs will win at home in front of their home crowd one final time. Wednesday night’s disaster will serve as fuel to show the world they’re more like the team that built Game 4’s lead, not the one that let go of the rope in a historic fashion. Pair that motivation with the inevitable emotional comedown the Knicks will be battling and it feels like this series will head back to New York—where the Knicks will all but certainly clinch in front of their home crowd. But San Antonio will live to fight another day.

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