If the Hawks Win the NBA Draft Lottery, Should They Keep or Trade The Pick?

Jackson Caudell | May 10, 2024

Mar 8, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder gives direction during / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The first big day of what should be a busy offseason for the Atlanta Hawks will be on Sunday. The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery is this Sunday and the Hawks are going to figure out where they are drafting in next month's draft. Going into Sunday, Atlanta's predraft position is 10th and they have a 13.9% chance to leap into the top four and a 3% chance to land the top pick. Atlanta has never had much luck when it comes to the NBA Draft Lottery, but this might be the year that turns in their favor.

Of course, this is not a draft that teams are super eager to be at the top of. There is not a talent like Victor Wembanyama or Zion Williamson, but having the No. 1 pick would be better than the 10th. It is a more valuable asset to use a trade chip if Atlanta decides to go that route.

While it is very unlikely, what should the Hawks do if they were to have lottery luck this weekend and win the No. 1 pick?

I think that most people's answer would be to try and trade it, considering the perceived weakness of this draft. The question would be what kind of player you could get in return.

There are a number of possibilities in terms of players that could be available for trade. From Brandon Ingram, Jarrett Allen, Kevin Durant, to others, there could be a number of players available this summer. Having the No. 1 pick would increase the odds for sure, but it would not be as much of a guarantee as years past.

Atlanta could be in a better position to take a player and then have him be a part of the future. The player that would best the Hawks is Alex Sarr, the only prospect who seems like a lock to go in the top three of this draft.

In a weak draft, Sarr stands out as the top prospect for me and I had him ranked as the top prospect on my first Atlanta Hawks big board of the summer. Sarr is a very athletic and versatile big that Atlanta would love to have on their roster. While there is a lot of debate about the top of the draft and where these prospects will land, I think Atlanta is going to have to move into the top four or possibly higher if they want to take Sarr. If Atlanta stays at 10th, where they are most likely to be picking, then Atlanta has almost no chance of landing Sarr.

While his offense needs some work, especially when it comes to shooting, Sarr might have the most upside in this class and fills a need for the Hawks. He could be the center for the future and help build a reliable defense around Trae Young. Could Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu fit together on the court? That would be a question Atlanta would need to answer if the won the lottery and took Sarr.

This would be a huge win for the Hawks if they are forced with this decision. While the draft might not have a can't miss prospect, I think Sarr is clearly the best player and would fill a massive need for Atlanta.

The other thing to note is that Atlanta is likely not going to have to make a decision about trading the pick before the draft. They could decide to wait, take a player, and see who emerges in the trade market this summer.

It is an unlikely scenario, but one that the Hawks would love to find themselves in. It would be a good way to try and improve the roster around the players that the front office wants to keep.