Breaking Down The Trae Young/Dejounte Murray Dilemma The Atlanta Hawks Find Themselves in and What Might Come Next

The Atlanta Hawks season ended last night and now the attention will turn to what they will do this offseason, particularly with their two star guards. It has been a talking point for most of the second half of the season, but with the Hawks now eliminated, it will be one of the storylines of the offseason. This morning, prominent NBA insider Shams Charania had this to say on Fanduel TV's Run It Back:

"Anytime that you have the talent that they have, one guy on a max contract, one guy on a significant $100 million dollar contract and you fall short of expectations, what is their record, 20-31 with those two guys in the lineup together, you have to evaluate everything and I think the Hawks are going to take some time and go through their meetings internally and figure out what is the best course of action. 

We know they shopped Dejounte Murray at the trade deadline, talked with several teams, including the Lakers at the deadline, and did not move him. But I think when you look at Trae Young's future when you look at Dejounte Murray's future, clearly something is going to have to give in Atlanta."

Given how the results have been with those two on the court and the amount of money they make, it seems like a given that at least one of them will be traded.

It seems like the Hawks have three options in front of them. Trade Young and keep Murray, trade Murray and keep Young, or trade both and attempt to go into a full on rebuild with forward Jalen Johnson as the centerpiece.

Let's break each of these options down.

Let's start with what is probably the least likely scenario and that is trading both of them and going into a full rebuild around Jalen Johnson.

Do I think it is likely? Probably not, but if I was forced to trade Young, I would opt to trade Murray too, and go into a full rebuild. I just don't think the Hawks can be anything other than an average team with Murray (maybe I'm wrong) at the helm and would rather go into a full rebuild with Johnson, Kobe Bufkin, Onyeka Okongwu, and Mouhamed Gueye. The thing is, I don't think Quin Snyder would have taken this job last season if he thought the Hawks were going to go into a full rebuild and I have a hard time seeing him being on board for it now. There is no telling how long a rebuild would take and I don't think Snyder wants any part of that. 

Not only that, but the Hawks currently don't own any of their own draft picks after 2024. They owe unprotected picks to the Spurs in 2025 and 2027 and a pick swap in 2026. It would not be wise to go into a full rebuild without your own picks. But there could be a way to get all of them back.

If the Hawks want to trade both and go into a rebuild, there is only one scenario that would even make sense in my opinion. Because the Hawks don't control their own draft picks for the next few seasons, trading Young to San Antonio and getting all of those picks back from the Murray trade and then some would be the only thing that would make sense. If Atlanta traded Young anywhere but San Antonio, you would be making your team worse as well as not having your own draft picks. Atlanta would be in the same position as the Brooklyn Nets are right now, a below-average team with someone else's draft picks. Brooklyn was not good enough to even make the play-in, but can't get better through the draft lottery because they owe their draft pick to the Rockets because of the James Harden trade. I won't completely rule anything out, but I don't think the Hawks are going to trade both and start tanking for a better draft position.

What about trading Murray and keeping Young?

I think the most likely scenario is that the Hawks try to find somewhere to trade Murray. I don't think trading Young and building around Murray is a real option for the franchise going forward. Some will point to the Hawks's record and defensive improvement in the 24 games where Young was out between February and April, but I don't think it is significant enough to make Murray the centerpiece of the franchise. Atlanta was 12-12 during Young's absence, with a 0.5 net rating. Yes, the defensive rating improved, but I don't think the Hawks showed they were a significantly better team with Murray on the floor and Young off of it. Murray played really well this season, especially after the trade deadline and I think the Hawks can get a nice haul back for him if they elect to trade him. Murray did outplay Young last night vs the Bulls, but I still think Young is the better long-term option for Atlanta. 

Could the Hawks trade Young and keep Murray to build around him and Johnson?

Atlanta is better on defense without Young, but just an average or below-average team overall when it is Murray and not Young out there. There is no evidence to suggest that the Hawks are a far better team with Murray instead of Young and that is not meant to be a shot at Murray. Young is one of the five or so best offensive players in the league who has shown the ability to get to the playoffs and win games. 

I will say I think the Hawks would probably get more for Young on the trade market and that could factor into their decision. Still, I think the ceiling with Young is higher, even if building around him might be a bit more challenging.

At the end of the day, the Hawks are going to need to make a decision for the future of the franchise and it seems like a certainity that at least one of these players will be gone. This will be one of the storylines of the NBA going into the offseason and one of the most crucial decisions the franchise has had to make.