Hawks vs Heat: Game Preview, Betting Odds, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups For Today's Game

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks have their 2024-25 season on the line. A win today would set them up for a first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. A loss sends them home after a second straight season of losing in the play-in tournament. Although it's disappointing, this season shouldn't necessarily be viewed as a failure. The reality is that the Hawks reconfigured their team at the deadline, lost their second-best player and engineered their roster to be much younger at the start of the year. The goal is to create a sustainable, complementary core around star point guard Trae Young. Even if they win tonight, there is almost no chance they can beat the Cavaliers. The only benefit from making the playoffs is giving young players like Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels their first taste of high-level postseason basketball.

Their opponent, the Miami Heat, entered the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed, but they beat the Chicago Bulls handedly by a score of 109-90. Miami has typically been a tough matchup for the Hawks in the postseason. They lost to the Heat 4-1 in the first round of the 2022 playoffs and Miami also ended the Hawks' season last year. The Hawks are 2-2 on the season against the Heat.

Game Preview

In the regular season, the Hawks finished 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 14th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 15th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate.

The Hawks ranked 27th in PPG allowed, 28th in field goal percentage allowed, 16th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Heat finished 24th in the NBA in PPG, 18th in FG%, 16th in 3PA, 12th in 3P%, 27th in FTA, 8th in turnovers, and 21st in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 21st in points per 100 possessions, 18th in effective field goal percentage, 9th in turnover percentage, 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 22nd in free throw rate.

As usual, Miami's defense is comfortably one of the better units in the league. They ranked 7th in PPG allowed, 12th in field goal percentage allowed, 17th in three-point attempts allowed, and 14th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat finished 9th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed

In 2024-25, Miami's offense usually goes as Tyler Herro does. As of late, that's been a really good thing for Miami. The All-Star guard fared well against the Hawks despite drawing Dyson Daniels in coverage for most of the game. He averaged 24.8 points and 6.8 assists to three turnovers on 47.8/40/92% splits. The Hawks did hold him to 11 points in their Feb. 24 win over the Heat, but that game also came amidst the Heat's worst losing streak of the year. More recently, he torched them for 36 points on 13-17 shooting from the field. Herro is coming off a 38 point effort against the Bulls where he went 13-19 from the field. He's playing some of his best basketball of the year and Daniels is going to have a tough time slowing him down.

The Heat always focus a ton of defensive attention towards Trae Young and this game will be no different. In his first three games against Miami, Young finished with a combined 39 points on 11-29 shooting and six turnovers. He was better in his most recent game with 29 points on 10-21 attempts, but the effiency and scoring just hasn't been there for Young like it is against some of his other opponents. They will likely throw a combination of Davion Mitchell and Herro at Young, but Mitchell will be the primary matchup on Trae. He's done well in that role, holding Young to a measly 14.1 points and 8.3 assists on 47.2 TS% in 195 possessions. Expect an inefficient game from Young where his teammates will need to force Miami to draw attention away from him.

This Heat team plays with a ton of discipline - they're 8th in turnovers - while also playing a suffocating brand of defense. While the Hawks play with a ton of pace (3rd in the NBA), the Heat are slow and methodical (27th in the NBA). They concede the sixth-fewest second chance points and they finished 14th in opponent points in the paint. Finishing in the paint has been a strength for the Hawks' offense - they finished 3rd in the regular season for points in the paint. The battle between Onyeka Okongwu and Ke'el Ware/Bam Adebayo is going to be especially interesting to watch in this regard. Adebayo hasn't had his best season, but he's still one of the most switchable defenders in basketball with tons of postseason experience. Ware has been a revelation for the Heat this year - the rookie center has consistently been a presence in the paint while also occassionally stretching the floor due to his three-point shooting. This is a dangerous duo to watch for and the Hawks are already a small team. Okongwu and Mo Gueye are both good defenders and it'll be important for them to show that tonight.

In terms of Miami's other players, Duncan Robinson is having another good season as the Heat's go-to shooter. He's nailing 39.3% of his 6.5 attempts per game. Andrew Wiggins struggled to adjust at the start of his Heat tenure, but he's rounded into form as a third scoring option who can still bring something on the defensive end. Haywood Highsmith is capable of giving the Heat good two-way minutes at times.

Against Orlando, every member of the Hawks lineup not named Trae Young could have been much better. Zacccharie Risacher was 2-10 from the field and scored seven points. Onyeka Okongwu had 11 points and nine rebounds, and Dyson Daniels scored seven points. Caris LeVert had seven points on 3-11 shooting. Georges Niang had 15 points, and Dominick Barlow, Terance Mann, and Vit Krejci combined for eight points. The Orlando bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30. Expect a top three of LeVert, Niang, and Mann off the bench tonight. Those three, along with Risacher, need to have better games for Atlanta to advance.

Miami is going to be a tough challenge, but the Hawks are capable of meeting it. They will need to play the best brand of team basketball of their season and the stakes are simple. Win and in - or lose and go home.

Injury Report

Trae Young (right Achilles tendinitis) is probable while Clint Capela, Larry Nance, Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin remain out.

For Miami, Dru Smith is out while Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love and Pelle Larsson are questionable.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Hawks are 1 point favorites against the Heat tonight and the total is set at 220.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Projected starting lineups

Hawks:

G- Trae Young

G - Dyson Daniels

F - Zaccharie Risacher

F - Mouhamed Gueye

C - Onyeka Okongwu

Heat:

G- Alec Burks

G - Tyler Herro

F - Andrew Wiggins

F - Bam Adebayo

C - Ke'el Ware

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