Looking at the Atlanta Hawks NBA Draft Scenarios Heading Into the Final Regular Season Game

Where could the Hawks first round picks end up after today?

Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) grabs a loose ball in the second half against the Texas Longhorns during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

The final day of the NBA regular season is here and there is going to be a lot of understandable focus on the playoffs race, but the NBA Draft race has a lot of headlines as well.

For the Atlanta Hawks, they clinched a playoff berth on Friday when they defeated the Cavaliers and depending on the results of their game and potentialy some others, they will find out where they will be headed next weekend for the first round of the postseason.

All season long, the Hawks have been keeping an eye on the New Orleans Pelicans and Miluwakee Bucks due to owning the unprotected first round pick that is the most favorable of the two teams. Today, Atlanta will know where that pick ends up in the lottery odds and how likely it is that they will come away with a top four pick in what is expected to be a very good and deep NBA Draft.

Where things stand

Coming into today, the Pelicans sit with the 8th best odds to win the top pick in the NBA Draft (26.3% chance of a top four pick and 6.0% chance to win the lottery) and the Bucks have the 10th best odds (13.9% to pick top four, 3.0% chance of No. 1 pick).

Here is where things get interesting though. If the Pelicans lose and the Grizzlies and Mavericks win today, there will be a three way tie between the teams. If this happens, all of their draft combinations are merged together and split evenly. This would be the best possible chance for the Hawks to increase their odds for the Pelicans pick. If all three teams lose, the Pelicans will have the 8th best odds to win the lottery.

There are scenarios where either Memphis or Dallas wins and New Orleans loses and there is a tie for 7th best odds, which would be determined before the draft by a coin flip.

The Bucks could tie with the Bulls for 9th best odds if Milwaukee loses and Chicago wins today. In that case, there would be a coin flip before the lottery to see who is 9th and who is 10th.

The best scenario for the Hawks would be for the Pelicans to enter into a three-way tie with the Mavericks and Grizzlies, and the Bucks and Bulls be tied at 9th, and the Bucks win the coin flip.

The Hawks also own the Cleveland Cavaliers first round pick this draft, which is currently No. 22.

Either way, the Hawks are going to have solid odds to get into the top four of this draft and possibly even No.1. Atlanta will be determining playoff positioning today, but they will have their eyes on these games as well.