SI:AM | What’s With All These NBA Playoff Blowouts?

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m glad at least one of the NBA conference finals turned out to be a competitive series.

In today’s SI:AM:
🤠 Spurs force Game 7
📝 Cruz on new college sports bill
🏀 WNBA trends

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Another lopsided playoff game

The Western Conference finals between the Thunder and Spurs hasn’t exactly lived up to the lofty expectations set by the thrilling first two games of the series. After a double-overtime classic in Game 1 and a similarly competitive Game 2, fans were clamoring for the series to go the full seven games. And after San Antonio’s impressive victory in Game 6 last night, they’ll get their wish.

But the rest of the series hasn’t been as hotly contested as it seemed it would be after the first two games. The Spurs won Thursday night’s Game 6 by 27 points, four days after winning Game 4 by 21.

San Antonio made the blowout somewhat interesting, at least, with a 20–0 run in the third quarter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hit a midrange jumper to cut OKC’s deficit to 72–64 with 8:23 left in the quarter. Then it took the Thunder more than seven minutes to hit their next shot. They missed 14 shots in a row. The game was essentially over before the buzzer sounded to end the quarter.

Fans have become accustomed to seeing lopsided games this postseason. It’s not just the Knicks winning games handily. San Antonio’s win last night was the 13th game this postseason where the margin of victory was at least 25 points. That’s tied for the third most such games in any postseason.

The record for playoff blowouts of at least 25 points in a single postseason is 20 in 2016. The second-highest was the following year, with 14 such games. Why might that be? That was when the Warriors and Cavaliers ruled the NBA and squared off in four straight Finals. Those two teams accounted for nearly half of those blowouts (16 of the 34).

Playoff blowouts are becoming increasingly commonplace. There have been at least 11 games decided by 25-plus points in five of the six most recent postseasons (2023 is the lone outlier, with seven). The only other years in NBA history with at least 11 25-point playoff blowouts were the aforementioned Warriors/Cavs seasons and 2009.

So what’s the reason behind the increase in lopsided games? You can blame the Knicks and the Spurs for much of it. Five of New York’s 12 playoff wins have come by at least 25 points (tied for the most in NBA history), and four of San Antonio’s 11. That’s similar to last season, when the Thunder accounted for five of the 13 games that were decided by at least 25 points.

So part of the answer is that there are great teams peaking at the right time, but the blowouts have been more spread out in recent years. In 2021, ’22 and ’24, no single team had more than three 25-point wins, even though the total number was higher than historical averages.

Another possible explanation is that players are simply worn down at the end of a long season. The season is just as long as it’s always been, but players have been more outspoken in recent years about the rigors of the 82-game season. Players also make more money than they ever have, so teams are more likely to be cautious about injuries and keep banged-up players on the bench who might have taken the court in a previous era.

I think the most likely explanation is that the increase in three-point attempts is leading to more variable outcomes. If a team catches fire from beyond the arc or suddenly goes cold, it completely changes the shape of a game. Over the past 10 years, the average number of three-point attempts in playoff games has increased from 25.8 to 34.2, peaking at 36.3 in 2020. In Game 6 last night, OKC went a dismal 10-for-40 from deep. In the Knicks’ 37-point clincher over the Cavs, Cleveland went 11-for-40.

Let’s hope neither team falls victim to the three-point gods in Game 7 on Saturday and we get a game on par with how the series started.

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The top five…

… things I saw last night:
5. The Orioles fan who caught a home run ball and a ground-rule double ball in back-to-back innings. (MLB.com interviewed the guy. He’s a 22-year-old who just graduated from college in Baltimore.)
4. Astros outfielder Cam Smith’s leaping home run robbery.
3. Carter Bryant’s ferocious two-handed slam late in the first half.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.’s grand slam over the Green Monster. (That snapped a streak of 15 straight games without a homer for Acuña, the sixth-longest homerless stretch of his career.)
1. Ava Kuszak’s walk-off homer for Nebraska in the Women’s College World Series against Arkansas. (The Razorbacks are still alive in the double-elimination format.)

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