Best-Case (and Worst-Case) NBA Draft Scenarios for the Atlanta Hawks

The 2026 NBA Draft is set to begin tonight.

The top four of this draft seems to be set heading into the night, with AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson expected to be selected in the top four, in some order, and then the draft becomes open for a lot of possibilities once the Los Angeles Clippers are on the clock at No. 5.

The Atlanta Hawks enter tonight's draft with two first round picks (No. 8 and No. 23) and have needs they could fill, including finding a long-term solution at point guard and adding to the center position. The Hawks are also said to be active in trade discussions around the league with both picks, regarding moving up or moving down.

What are some of the best case scenarios for Atlanta in tonight's first round?

Best Case

1. Keaton Wagler falls to No. 8

Of the five guards that could be on the board when the Hawks are on the clock, I think Wagler is the most talented and would be a tremendous fit on Atlanta. He is an elite scorer and shooter with great size for the guard position. Wagler could learn from CJ McCollum for one season and then begin to take over as the lead guard in the backcourt for the Hawks.

Of the guards though, he is one of the most unlikely to fall that far.

It seems as though Wagler is going to be picked at No. 5 by the Clippers or the Nets at No.6, but if there are some surprise picks in those spots, Wagler could find his way down to No. 8, where I think Atlanta would be thrilled.

2. Hawks select Aday Mara and one of Labaron Philon Jr, Christian Anderson, Ebuka Okorie, Dailyn Swain, or Bennett Stirtz is available at No. 23

If the Hawks don't take a guard at No. 8, it is likely because they chose Mara and hope that one of the guard prospects expected to be taken in the latter half of the lottery and the middle of the first round falls. Daily Swain is not a point guard obviously, but he has been linked to Atlanta and would be an intriguing bet at No. 23.

That could be a dream scenario for Atlanta. Hawks President of Basketball Operations Onsi Saleh has discussed the depth of this guard class and any of those four players would be great fits for Atlanta and their need for a guard.

I think the guards at the top of the draft are more talented than Mara, but if one of these players were to be available at No. 23 (a huge question), than Atlanta could be in a scenario where this makes more sense to fill two needs.

3. A team overpays to move up to No. 8

Do I know exactly what the package would be? No, but at this time last year, nobody could have predicted that the New Orleans Pelicans would trade an unprotected 2026 spots to move up ten spots and take Derik Queen. Atlanta might not get that level of draft compensation back in a deal, but they have been reportedly very active when it comes to trade talks.

Milwaukee has a pair of first round picks after last night's Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, Oklahoma City and Charlotte also have a pair of picks, while Chicago and Memphis are two teams that have reportedly expressed interest in moving back into the lottery.

OKC and Milwaukee make the most sense, but if Chicago or Memphis were willing to move major draft capital to get back into the top ten of the draft and add to their top four selections, then it could set Atlanta up for a big deal to give them more assets.

Worst case scenarios

1. Hawks draft Nate Ament with the No. 8 pick

Ament could turn out to be a fine NBA player, but if the Hawks take him over one of the guards or Mara in the top ten, that would not make a lot of sense. The Hawks already have multiple wings on their roster, Ament does not fill a need, and I don't believe he is as talented as the other options.

Could Atlanta trade back and take him? Sure and that would make it somewhat more understandable, but I think Atlanta should look elsewhere.

2. Atlanta selects Ament and then overpays to move up from No. 23 to land a guard or center

What would make a bad situation worse would be if Atlanta took Ament and then moved up from No. 23 to land a guard or center, vastly overpaying in the process.

I higlight this as a worst case scenario, but for the sake of Hawks fans, I also don't think it is realistic. Saleh is a very active front office executive, but in any of the deals that he has made since leading Atlanta, he not made an overpay for a player. Every executive has one at some point or another, but Hawks fans should be confident that Saleh would not make a move like this.

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