One Bold Atlanta Hawks Prediction For The 2026-27 Season That Could Look Genius In April

The Atlanta Hawks aren't projected to be a huge factor in the Eastern Conference this season. They don't have the star power that others in their conference possess. They haven't made a ton of massive additions after an offseason focused on adding short-term upgrades with an eye on future flexibility.

However, since they are relying on development in order to improve, they're going to have to see growth from some of the members of their young core. One of the biggest development X-factors for their season is point guard Dyson Daniels. If he makes a critical step in his growth as a shooter, it significantly improves the level that the Hawks can play at.

Dyson Daniels Will Shoot 36% From 3-Point Range In 2026-27

Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, NFL, Dyson Daniels, Daniels, — Jan 29, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) shoots against the Houston Rockets in the first quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

To be clear, Daniels isn't likely to become an elite shooter at this stage of his career. He's already four seasons into his NBA career and he's coming off a career-worst 18.8% from deep on 1.5 attempts a game. He essentially cut the three-point shot out of his game and the Hawks' offense suffered for it.

Daniels finished the season in the 2nd percentile for three-point attempts, 1st percentile for three-point percentage and 5th percentile for free-throw percentage (61.5%). On shot attempts that are designed to space the defense out, he shot 39.2%. That percentage comprises all of Daniels' attempts on spot-up shots, off screens and designed hand-off plays. It was in the 17th percentile last season relative to his position.

Therefore, his shooting percentages are clearly a problem for the Hawks. Why should there be confidence in his ability to double his three-point percentage just one year later?

More Playmaking = Better Production

When Daniels first arrived in Atlanta, he was significantly better as a shooter due to feasting off Trae Young's gravity. With Young on the court for the 2024-25 season, he shot 36.4% from beyond the arc. That number slumped to 31.7% in the minutes without him. There were signs of being a capable shooter when Young could set him up. In fact, there was some optimism that it might be a sign of things to come.

That chemistry didn't exist with Jalen Johnson. Last season, the Hawks' exciting duo didn't exactly improve each other's prowess from deep. Daniels shot 17.9% with Johnson on the court and 21.9% when JJ was off the floor. Johnson shot 34.2% when Dyson was on the floor and 37.2% without him. It proved to be a problem for the Hawks because Johnson was the lead distributor for Atlanta. They also operated in similar places on the floor - primary around the rim and in the paint.

This season should be different. Dyson will have an entire season next to Kingston Flemings and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Both of those players should be able to take some ball-handling duties off Johnson's plate and they can still generate their own shot from deep. Flemings is admittedly an unknown in this area, but NAW was incredibly helpful for Atlanta's spacing last season. He finished the year with a 62.8% clip on the same spot-up shots, off screens and designed hand-off plays that Daniels struggled with. That was in the 95th percentile last season. An elite floor-spacer like NAW didn't completely save Daniels' production from deep, but Daniels did shoot 4% better from deep when Alexander-Walker was on the floor.

At Houston, Flemings showed an ability to make pin-point passes that only happened because of his incredible vision as a playmaker. That will fit nicely with someone like Daniels, who should be getting ignored by the vast majority of defensive schemes. Flemings is a rookie, but he'll likely draw more attention from defenses as a shooter because of his strong touch indicators (84.5% from the FT line, 38% from deep on 3.3 attempts) in spite of a Houston offense that did not have ample amounts of spacing. If Flemings can become a respectable player when driving to the basket, that opens up drive-and-kick opportunities for Daniels in the corner. That spot has historically been good for Daniels - he shot 43.9% on corner threes in 2024-25 and 37.7% the season prior albeit on limited volume.

Change in Defensive Role

Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, NBA, Daniels, Dyson Daniel — Dec 29, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives around Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, the biggest reason to feel confident in Daniels' progression as a shooter is the significant change in defensive burden. He was one of the NBA leaders in matchup difficulty and that certainly showed up at times. By adding Lu Dort, the Hawks now have two players who can credibly guard the other team's best perimeter player on a nightly basis. That drastically reduces the amount of energy Dyson needs to devote on defense.

Flemings could be a solid defender from his rookie season and the Hawks also got a surprisingly strong defensive season from CJ McCollum. I'd stop short of calling Atlanta's perimeter defense elite or even very good at this stage, but it should be a solid, consistent unit in a way that it wasn't last season. The stronger infrastructure might allow Daniels to focus on sustaining his shooting form and punishing the wide-open looks he'll get throughout the season. He has the luxury of playing next to a shooting big in Onyeka Okongwu, so he'll usually draw the least talented perimeter defender on a nightly basis.

The reality is that Daniels doesn't need to be an elite shooter for Atlanta to reach a higher ceiling as a team. The passing, defense and offensive rebounding are already incredible assets for the Hawks to leverage in their lineups. He just has to be passable in a way that he wasn't last season.

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