Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for Miami's Andrew WIggins This Season

Every great team needs a 3-and-D wing. Look around the NBA and you can find examples everywhere. The Spurs have Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie, while the Knicks have Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Championship teams need players who can defend at a high level, knock down threes and contribute without needing the ball every possession.

The Miami Heat have one of their own in former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins enters this season as one of Miami's most important players outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. With two stars capable of commanding so much defensive attention, Wiggins has an opportunity to take another step in Miami.

Pat Riley: “Andrew Wiggins has proven to us that he is the quintessential small forward who fits perfectly with this roster. We feel he will be a critical part of what we’re trying to achieve with this team going forward and we feel fortunate that we were able to extend him.”
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) July 6, 2026

Best Case: Wiggins Takes Advantage of the Gravity Around Him

The best-case scenario for Wiggins is not simply that he repeats what he has already done. It is that he takes a leap because of the opportunities created by Miami's new superstar.

Wiggins shot 40% from three last season while averaging 15 points per game but playing alongside Antetokounmpo could create even better opportunities. Giannis' downhill style forces defenses to collapse, and that should give Wiggins more open looks, driving lanes and opportunities to attack mismatches.

If Wiggins can remain a premier defender while becoming a more efficient and aggressive offensive player, Miami could get much more than the 15-point-per-game version of him.

His ability to create for himself, rebound and defend in isolation will remain crucial, but the biggest opportunity is what happens when defenses focus on Giannis and Bam. Wiggins has shown throughout his career that he can score in bunches when given opportunities. If he can consistently capitalize on those opportunities, a 17-to-20-point-per-game season while maintaining his defensive impact is not difficult to envision.

That would not only make Wiggins an ideal third option for Miami, but a potential NBA All-Star.

Worst Case: Regression or Injury

Wiggn — Feb 20, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Heat forward Andrew Wiggins (22) reacts after being called for a foul against the Atlanta Hawks in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The worst-case scenario for Wiggins is similar to several of his teammates. While injury and regression are the easy answers, they are also the right ones.

Miami needs Wiggins this season.

A decline from beyond the arc would put more pressure on the Heat's offense, particularly because spacing around Giannis and Bam will be so important. A defensive regression would be just as problematic because Miami needs Wiggins to take on difficult perimeter assignments.

Then there is availability. Wiggins cannot afford to miss significant time on a team that is relying on him to bridge the gap between its two stars and the rest of the roster.

The Heat do not need Wiggins to become a superstar. They need him to become the best possible version of himself while playing alongside two stars who will naturally draw the majority of the defensive attention.

If Wiggins can take advantage of that gravity, he could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Miami's new-look roster.

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