Miami Heat's rotation when healthy, a favorable stat vs Chicago and more

The Miami Heat are getting closer to whole.

Tyler Herro made his return a game ago in a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, while Jaime Jaquez Jr was sidelined due to that recent ankle injury.

Jaquez Jr was upgraded to questionable for tonight against the Chicago Bulls, possibly having the Heat the healthiest they've been all season.

These next two games hold high importance for the Heat, since taking advantage of these games against Chicago and Indiana are crucial heading into a tougher stretch of the schedule.

But let's jump into some keys for this Bulls match-up:

1. One Heat stat hinting at a win.

Nov 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic (9) defends against Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The reason it's important to take care of business tonight is due to a key stat that has hovered over Miami all season. This new offense finds a ton of success against weaker defenses, yet hits a wall hard against bigger and better defensive fronts. The Heat are 6-12 against the league's top 15 defenses and 14-5 against bottom five defenses. This Bulls match-up falls under the bottom 15 category, as it seems Miami should be able to find their offensive flow no matter who suits up. It's a good thing this team can beat weaker squads, but it is slightly problematic that you can map out good and bad match-ups before they happen.

2. The starting lineup and rotation dilemma.

Dec 1, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13), guard Norman Powell (24) and guard Tyler Herro (14) get back on defense against the Los Angeles Clippers during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

As Tyler Herro worked back in against the Timberwolves, he came off the bench as Miami was without Jaquez Jr. Entering this Bulls match-up against a starting five that is slightly undersized, it provides some questioning upon who will start. Kel'el Ware hopefully sustains his starting role as the Heat stay big, but it's not crazy to say the staff could size back down for now. Andrew Wiggins with the second unit had a strong stretch as of late next to Jaquez Jr, leaving that as a possibility. But it does feel slowly ramping up Herro with that bench group in just his second game back is the plan. This would force the team to go ten deep, as Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson, and Nikola Jovic won't be getting their minutes cut.

3. Can the Heat get Bam Adebayo going tonight?

Jan 4, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) warms-up before the start of the game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

It's been a rough stretch for the Heat's captain offensively. He's cracked 15 points only once over his last seven games, and the efficiency in the lane hasn't been where he wants it to be. It's no shock that this offense makes his shot attempts more difficult than they could be, as his shot profile is all isolation attacks into turnaround and tough jumpers. Miami increased the pick and roll diet for Herro in his return, but it's not crazy to say it should go up for Adebayo as well. A short roll catch for him makes his offensive life a whole lot easier. It may not be needed tonight against this 25th ranked defense, so it'll be on him to attack the basket with Nikola Vucevic defending. In their last match-up, Adebayo had 10 free throw attempts due to that relentless attacking, and it would be nice to see that again tonight.