The three things that could catalyze a strong Miami Heat finish

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Not everything has gone according to plan for the Miami Heat this season, so it's hard to project how the last dozen weeks will go.
Yet there are some signs that the finish could be something closer to the surprisingly strong start than to some of the struggles that came thereafter.
The Heat went 2-1 on a homestand against three quality opponents, with wins against Phoenix and Oklahoma City, and then went 3-2 on a road trip that included two dreadful defensive efforts (against Golden State and Portland) but also comfortable wins against two bad teams (Sacramento and Utah) and one (Phoenix) that was without its best player.
So now the Heat are 25-22, in the East's seventh spot, just ahead of Orlando, its next opponent. That matchup will come Wednesday in Miami, after the Heat have already lost to the Magic three times this season. That will be followed by four games against teams just behind both the Heat and Magic, the Bulls and the Hawks, as the Heat try to create some distance from their frequent Play-in Tournament opponents.
And while all is still not perfect in Heat-land, there are some reasons to believe the uptrend can continue, and that may dictate some of the organization's trade deadline decisions:
1. The schedule is softening

It's not only this upcoming five-game stretch against the middling squads of the East. Miami will get to play more of the lesser lights soon. After facing Boston, the Heat have six straight games against teams that are not currently in the playoff picture. That includes New Orleans, which is tanking; Milwaukee and Memphis, which may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo or Ja Morant on their rosters (if they're even healthy) by then; Utah again; and Washington. In fact, there's a lot of Wizards and Nets on the Heat's slate the rest of the way, two teams that have more to gain by losing.
2. A little more depth is developing

No, the Heat still don't have Tyler Herro back, and who knows when that is happening or how long Herro will be available upon his return, prior to another injury (he's had three already) hits. And no, Nikola Jovic can't really be counted on, even though he has looked a little more confident of late, playing out of position but at least getting minutes with Kel'el Ware out. But some of the recent absences -- and some of the role players' inconsistency -- has afforded opportunity to two rookies, one a first-round pick (Kasparas Jakucionis) and one an undrafted find (Myron Gardner). And both have shown enough to give Erik Spoelstra additional options. Jakucionis has 25 assists and 6 turnovers in the eight games since he started getting consistent playing time, and all 6 of those turnovers came in just two games. Gardner has given the Heat a physical and emotional edge in his short stints; it only takes a minute for him to get under someone's skin.
3. This is traditionally Erik Spoelstra's time

The Coach of the Year buzz has faded, after the early-season offensive explosion has fizzled. But the Heat are not horribly positioned, not in an Eastern Conference in which only the Pistons have really run away. The Knicks' fall off has left Miami within three games of the fourth seed and, while there are teams to jump, all of those teams are about as flawed as Miami. Spoelstra tends to get a handle on his teams around February and March, with last season an exception because of the Jimmy Butler turmoil and trade. While Heat fans would welcome a trade now -- whether for a whale like Giannis Antetokounmpo or maybe a consolidation deal to get at least land a serviceable backup big -- the odds are that Spoelstra will make a little more of the current roster even if they don't.
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Ethan has covered all major sports -- in South Florida and beyond -- since 1996 and is one of the longest-tenured fully credentialed members of the Miami Heat. He has covered, in total, more than 30 NBA Finals, Super Bowls, World Series and Stanley Cup Finals. After working full-time for the Miami Herald, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Palm Beach Post, Bleacher Report and several other outlets, he founded the Five Reasons Sports Network in 2019 and began hosting the Five on the Floor podcast as part of that network. The podcast is regularly among the most downloaded one-team focused NBA podcasts in the nation, and the network is the largest independent sports outlet in South Florida, by views, listens and social media reach. He has a B.A. from The Johns Hopkins University and an M.S. from Columbia University. TWITTER: @EthanJSkolnick and @5ReasonsSports EMAIL: fllscribe@gmail.com
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