Why There Isn't Much Confidence in the Miami Heat Defense

Sometimes stats don’t pass the eye test, and worse, teams and their supporters fall into the trap of believing it. One specifically that can be misleading is Defensive Rating, and it is in the case of the Miami Heat.

They’re posting the ninth-ranked defense per NBA Stats, yet it was top-four on March 17. Once someone hears about this or sees it on the page, they presume that the schemes are strong enough for the team to be able to use them and survive against quality competition. That is not happening for the Heat, and their defensive showing against the Philadelphia 76ers in Monday’s win was one of their best in a while.

Notably, the Heat were disruptive on deep shots, which is a big deal because this team gives up the most open attempts in the NBA. It was a stark difference with their performance on Sunday in Indiana, in which they refused to guard the arc and lost a game they badly needed.

The team is averaging a 115.2 defensive rating against the East’s top six teams. (For reference purposes, the LA Clippers are the 19th-ranked defense with a 115.1 rating.) Additionally, the team they guarded best of that group was the Atlanta Hawks, and their numbers were comparable to a top-two defense against them. Their pressure was average against Toronto and Detroit, but abysmal against Boston, New York and Cleveland.

The problems are that too many of their main contributors have glaring weaknesses, either being too small, too slow-footed or not strong enough. Davion Mitchell can stick with anybody, but a lot of the elite shot creators can rise over his short stature for jumpers. Tyler Herro tries but can get beat on the dribble, and he has short arms with a thin frame, making it easier to overpower him. Kel’el Ware’s screen roll defense is still a work in progress. And they guard the corner when they feel like it.

When examining the defenses of contending teams, one notices that they are bigger and more athletic. Still, the Heat can make a significant leap in defensive potency by cutting out the unnecessary overhelp. Maybe it will take fining players $1,000 per infraction so they get the message, but correcting this could save them 10 to 15 points a night.

They have six games left, but the most important are the one with Atlanta, two with Toronto and one with Boston as they could have a significant impact in the standings. It will also give the team another chance to test the schemes against speed, size and top-shelf ball movement.

Players and Spo have gone on record endorsing the defense, but it gets too much credit for what it’s done against lower level competition. Bam Adebayo said they can guard like they did against the 76ers every night, but the only thing that will convince the public at this point is if they scrape into the first round and make it a mud wrestling match.

Don’t forget that they ended last season as a top-nine defense and subsequently got smoked at the Cavaliers’ hands by a combined 122 points through four outings. There’s not much that has changed about the philosophy or capabilities of the players on defense this year.