The Miami Heat season is final, but their NBA Draft position is not

This franchise isn't accustomed to being in this position

Mar 25, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra reacts in the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat closed the 2025-2026 NBA season in heartbreaking fashion on Tuesday night, losing to the Charlotte Hornets 126-127 on a LaMelo Ball layup to close the game out. Their season may be settled, but their 2026 NBA Draft position is not. The Miami Heat will conduct their exit interviews tomorrow, and then it is on to the offseason. The NBA Draft lottery is on May 10th in Chicago. The NBA Draft Combine is May 10th-17th, and the NBA Draft is June 23rd-24th. There is a lot to be determined for the Heat between now and the NBA Draft.

HORNETS ELIMINATE HEAT IN INSANE OT ENDING 🤯🤯🚨

CHARLOTTE ADVANCES TO NEXT ROUND OF PLAY-IN 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IqYf8BfBbO

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 15, 2026

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The Lottery Situation

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; NBA Commissioner Adam Silver walk through the audience during the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat currently have the 13th-best lottery odds. This is determined by regular-season records, not including playoff teams. That gives them a 4.7% chance at a top-four pick in the draft.

If you are a glass-half-empty kind of person, that is a 95.3% chance to not move up in the draft via the lottery. If you want further despair, the Miami Heat have never moved up in the draft via the lottery in the history of the franchise, which began in 1988.

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What if they don’t win the lottery?

June 1, 2023; Denver, CO, USA; Miami Heat vice president of player programs and development Alonzo Mourning during the fourth quarter in game one of the 2023 NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Heat are most likely to not win the lottery and sit with the 13th pick in the draft. That is not written in stone either. They can move as high as pick 12 and as low as pick 14.

To move up to 12th, the Heat need a team with a better record than them to get upset and sent to the lottery, which would effectively swap them out with a team that has a worse record.

The other East Play-In teams (Hornets, Magic, 76ers) all have better records than Miami. The East will always produce one eliminated team with a better record than the Heat. Therefore, Miami's lottery fate lies in the West.

For the Heat to secure the 12th spot, the following must happen:

1. Miami is eliminated: The Heat must lose in the Play-In Tournament to enter the lottery pool.
2. The Phoenix Suns are eliminated: The 7-seed Phoenix Suns (45-37) must lose both of their Play-In matchups and miss the playoffs.

The Heat have done their part. Let's see if the Suns can do theirs. This would not only give Miami the 12th pick in the draft, but also the possibility of better lottery odds to get a top-four pick. Their odds would go from 4.7% to 7.2%. It doesn’t sound like much, but every little bit counts.

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The Worst-Case Scenario

If a team behind the Miami Heat in the lottery, currently the Charlotte Hornets, wins the draft lottery by defying the odds and getting a top-four pick, it would bump every team down a spot, leaving the Heat with pick 14 in the draft. That would drive Heat fans into a frenzy.

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