The Heat’s Championship Dream Still Depends on More Than Giannis Antetokounmpo

Last week, Pat Riley opened a news conference sporting the kind of smile not seen since the last time the Miami Heat introduced a new star. Flanked by Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP Riley forked over Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and whatever else the Bucks asked for to acquire, the Heat’s hoop el jefe declared a new era of Miami basketball. “We’re not guaranteeing anything,” said Riley, “but we want to win.”

Indeed, landing “the plane,” as Riley affectionately referred to his new 6'11", 243-pound superstar, is a milestone moment for the Heat. It has been 16 years since Riley recruited LeBron James and Chris Bosh in free agency, teaming the All-NBA forwards with Dwyane Wade to form a mini-dynasty that racked up four NBA Finals appearances and a pair of championships. The years since have been a mixed bag: regular playoff appearances, equally regular early exits with a couple of improbable Finals runs mixed in. Last season Miami won 43 games, missing the playoffs entirely.

Riley believes the arrival of Antetokounmpo will change that. He recounted a call he had with Antetokounmpo early in the month. “I felt and heard the conviction in his voice about the same things that I wanted, that Spo wants, that the Arison family wants,” said Riley. “He just talked about winning.” Later, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra recalled a conversation he had with Riley. “He looked at me, he said, ‘Do you want to coach Giannis?’ ” Spoelstra said. Pausing, Spoelstra recounted his reaction: “Yes.”

The question is, how. No doubt, the addition of Antetokounmpo supercharges Miami’s lineup. When healthy—we will get into that in a minute—Antetokounmpo is a force. He’s a 28-to-30-ish ppg scorer who is good for 10 to 12 rebounds per night. He has connected on better than 60% of his shots in each of the last three seasons and led the NBA in free throw attempts in three of the last four.

Still, he’s far from plug and play. It’s safe to say Miami will tweak the fast-paced, quick-shot offense from last season. That team lacked a true half-court weapon, masking it with pace and high-volume attempts. At Summer League, rival coaches speculated the Heat will incorporate Giannis-friendly sets—pick-and-rolls, post-ups, half-court isolations—into Spoelstra’s system.

There’s a potentially larger problem: Shooting. An optimistic view is that the Heat have enough shooting. Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell, penciled into the starting lineup, were both better than 39% three-point shooters last season. Simone Fontecchio shot 37.5% off the bench. Recently added Bobby Portis and Tim Hardaway Jr. both shot better than 41%. In an interview with Dan Le Batard, Riley instead cited playmaking as Miami’s biggest need.

Still, teams are going to make the Heat prove they can beat them from the outside. Mitchell’s accuracy (39.5%) came on limited attempts (3.3 per game). Hardaway’s career-best three-point season came playing off of Nikola Jokić. And the reality is Miami will play most games with two non-shooters (Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo) gobbling up a lot of frontcourt minutes.

“I know we’ll pack the paint,” says a veteran assistant.

The Heat’s next target won’t help much there, either. As of publication, James had not made his, uh, decision, on where he will play next season. Miami is in the mix, and Riley has not been subtle about his desire for a James reunion, extending his plane metaphor. “There’s another one we have to land,” said Riley. James would certainly solve the Heat’s playmaking problems. He’s a dynamic shot creator who, at 41, remains a top-25 player. But James shot 31.7% from three last season, the lowest since 2007–08.

For now, Antetokounmpo isn’t concerned by it. At his news conference, Antetokounmpo crowed about his new partnership with Adebayo, who he has engaged in many battles over the years. Usually, Antetokounmpo said, he gets eight hours of sleep before games. Before playing Adebayo, he made sure to get 12. He expressed eagerness for the kind of hard coaching Spoelstra is known for.

“I’d rather you tell me the ugly truth than a beautiful lie,” Antetokounmpo said. “The moment I’m coached hard, everybody else is going to follow. I don’t want to be sugarcoated. I have a lot of people like that in my life that try to approach me and try to make me feel good. I don’t need that.”

There are few questions about Antetokounmpo’s game, which remains elite. His health is another story. Antetokounmpo played 36 games last season, battling multiple calf injuries. He missed the 2024 postseason after suffering a calf injury late in the regular season. At 31, Antetokounmpo has years of good basketball left in him—if his body will let him play it.

“I need pressure at this time of my career,” Antetokounmpo said. “I think in order for me to go to the next level, I’ve got to get out of my comfort zone—and I feel like Miami was the place for me to be.”

At his news conference, Antetokounmpo was asked about Lionel Messi, the Argentinean futbol star. In 2023, Messi, in his mid-30s, signed a contract with Miami’s Major League Soccer club. It was thought Messi was in the twilight of his career. Instead, Messi delivered two MLS MVPs and a championship. Antetokounmpo sees himself following a similar path.

“That’s the blueprint,” Antetokounmpo said. “LeBron James, Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, they set the blueprint and you just got to follow, right? It’s hard. You have to be disciplined. You have to be dedicated to your craft, but it’s there. And if you want to follow, you follow. If you don’t want to follow, then you go home.”

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