Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Charlotte Hornets This Season

By many accounts, the 2025-26 season was a collection of best-case scenarios for the Charlotte Hornets. Coming off a 19-win campaign, the Bugs added 25 wins to that total last season, going 31-13 from Jan. 10 through the end of the regular season and posting the NBA's best net rating over that span. Charlotte finished the year with a top-five offensive rating and an above-league-average defense across many categories.

The team's star at the time, LaMelo Ball, played more than 70 regular-season games for the first time since his sophomore All-Star season and received All-NBA votes. Kon Knueppel put together a historically efficient shooting season as a rookie. Head Coach Charles Lee established himself as Charlotte's franchise coach going forward, earning a contract extension, and Moussa Diabaté emerged as a highly impactful, starting-level two-way big. Those are just a few of the best-case developments that culminated in Charlotte's 44-win season.

So, what does that look like this time around? After an offseason widely viewed as one that could result in Charlotte taking a step back in the win column, what would a best-case season entail for the Hornets? And what could the inverse, worst-case scenario look like?

Best-case season

Dec 12, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Moussa Diabate (14) slam dunks against the Chicago Bulls during the first quarter at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There are two easy things to point out first. Results-wise, Charlotte breaking its decade-long playoff drought would be the absolute best-case outcome for the Hornets this season. Doing so in a very talented Eastern Conference from top to bottom and without their best player from last season would no doubt be an achievement.

Then, of course, there is the health component. In my opinion, the biggest reason for Charlotte's second-half winning ways was having their best players on the floor all together for an extended period. If the Hornets want to finish with a winning record again, that will in all likelihood have to happen this season as well, with their starters and the majority of the roster staying relatively healthy throughout the year.

The more macro goal in a possible transitional season like the upcoming one, even if Charlotte does not outright make the playoffs or Play-In Tournament again, is maintaining the standard of competitive basketball they established last season.

That means continuing to show they have a nice young talent pool and infrastructure in place and are a serious, well-run, and well-coached organization that can be a destination where an All-NBA-level player would want to be and eventually sign an extension if traded for.

It is really what the Hornets are banking on going forward with all of their asset accumulation and resetting of the books. The reality is that players of that caliber often have some level of influence over where they end up if they become disgruntled with their current team.

Charlotte playing themselves into that tier of teams that are "a true star away" or "a No. 1 option away" is important if the front office eventually plans to push its chips in for that type of player.

From just a team-functionality standpoint, the Hornets finding a way to keep their offense relatively close to the efficiency and effectiveness it had last season without one of the league's premier playmakers and offensive players in Ball would be a major win.

There will undoubtedly be a step back, but remaining somewhere around a top-10-to-12 offense would be a best-case outcome. Charlotte's extensive shooting talent, expected high three-point volume, and offensive rebounding provide a path to making that happen, even with less playmaking in their lineups.

One last piece of a successful season for the Hornets, like with all NBA teams, is internal development, particularly from Charlotte's best and most important young players.

For example, with Brandon Miller, Charlotte's best player at the moment, can he increase his rim attempts and overall production as a driver, tighten his handle, lower his turnover percentage, and deal with physicality better?

For Knueppel, improving as a playmaker, becoming more of a three-level scorer, and showing there is more meat on the bone in terms of his self-creation are all areas of note. Also watch for Sion James' improvement in finishing around the rim, or how Coby White handles being a true table-setter and the lead man of an NBA offense within Lee's scheme.

In the frontcourt, can Hannes Steinbach be an impact player from day one, and where does the coaching staff find the right place to play him positionally to maximize his current skill set on both ends of the floor? Could Diabaté add a little more to his offensive bag outside of his normal dunks, layups, and push shots? Will Naz Reid make a scoring leap with an increase in minutes and usage?

All of these individual developments can add up to make exceeding Charlotte's team expectations possible and would represent best-case scenarios for all parties involved.

Worst-case season

I fully expect Charlotte to be very competitive and well-equipped to deal with moderate injuries this season, so it is difficult for me to envision a true worst-case scenario where this becomes a sub-30-win team.

But if that were to happen, it would likely be because Charlotte's defense simply could not overcome its lack of perimeter defensive talent, with far too many straight-line drives given up and defensive breakdowns becoming a game-by-game occurrence.

It would also likely take injuries and extended time missed by players like Diabaté, James, and Ryan Kalkbrenner, leaving Charlotte unable to make up for their absences. That is the clearest path I see for things to go south defensively.

Externally, if a LaMelo Ball-led Minnesota Timberwolves team immediately becomes a championship contender while Ball stays healthy and puts together another All-NBA-caliber season, it would objectively be a very bad look for Charlotte after pivoting off him entering his age-25 season.

Charlotte's two possible additional first-round picks in the 2027 NBA Draft could also be at risk. If the Dallas Mavericks land in the top two of next year's lottery, Charlotte would not receive their selection, while the Miami Heat landing in the lottery would prevent their pick from conveying to the Hornets. Neither outcome is particularly likely given the talent both teams have to win enough games to stay out of those spots, but with the NBA's flattened lottery odds, both remain possible.

Missing out on both would take a massive bite out of the draft capital Jeff Peterson has accumulated heading into the 2027 draft.

Then, dare I say it, a heavily injury-plagued 2026-27 Hornets team would be the most disappointing outcome of all and almost certainly lead to an unsuccessful season.

Despite all the depth Charlotte has at the moment, no NBA team can withstand most of its best players and starters missing significant time. Hornets fans know that as well as anyone after the three seasons before 2025-26. Injuries tanked those campaigns and made it nearly impossible to fully evaluate the team, with players forced into scaled-up roles and the coaching staff only able to do so much.

After how fun last season was, another injury-riddled year would make for a very different experience.

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