How the NBA's New Draft Lottery System Would've Affected the Hornets Core

Whether or not the Charlotte Hornets have been tanking or just bad all these years is seemingly irrelevant now. For one thing, they've finally made it out of the mud of the Eastern Conference, seemingly.

For another, the new lottery system is meant to punish tanking teams, but the old one wasn't designed quite as harshly. If this had been the system years ago, the Hornets would likely have been in trouble.

Let's get one thing out of the way: this new system is utterly ridiculous. While tanking was ratcheted up this season and last, most fans understand that their small-market teams are doomed to be bad unless they hit a top draft pick, so it's really not hurting the fans to see their team lose 50+ games.

Now, with the new system, there is no incentive to land in the bottom three. That means that whoever does land in the bottom three will have been unable (or at least, the least capable of) to fight their way into the middle region. That means, in essence, that the three bottom teams will actually be the three worst teams, and they're going to get punished with lesser odds than teams better than them.

Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) reacts after a basket against the New York Knicks | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

This doesn't really hurt the Hornets now, but one can imagine how it would've totally ruined their lengthy and inconsistent rebuild that finally hit in 2025-26. It's impossible to say how the ping-pong balls would've played out when the Hornets drafted LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel, but it's very likely they wouldn't have all three.

In 2020, the Hornets had some lottery luck, moving up to third instead of eighth. That likely wouldn't have changed since the fourth to 10th-worst teams would have better odds of moving up. So, the Hornets probably still land Ball.

In 2023, they moved up again for Brandon Miller. They had the fourth-worst record, so perhaps once again, they'd have been able to stay in a good spot and potentially take Miller. Maybe they even land Victor Wembanyama with the best odds here, but that's too painful to imagine, so let's just ignore that.

Fortunately, the Hornets did not have more top-five picks between 2020 and 2023, otherwise they'd have been prevented from landing Miller. The Hornets technically dodge that bullet again in 2025 for Kon Knueppel (more on that later), but they might've landed in the top five with new odds in 2024, when they landed sixth and got Tidjane Salaün, thereby throwing the whole thing into chaos.

Plus, the Hornets had the third-worst record in 2024-25, so they likely would not have stayed top four and been able to get Kon Knueppel. He was not viewed as a top-four prospect, but still. It's hard to imagine them landing Knueppel here, and that's where the rebuild would have failed.

Kon Knueppel stands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the fourth pick | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Yes, Ball is the engine that runs this offense. Without him, they don't go. Yes, Miller is a special talent who looks like a future superstar. But Knueppel is truly what unlocks it. His gravity and shooting stroke are perfect for the modern NBA, and without him, this Hornets team would not be nearly as good.

Now, if the Hornets remain a Play-In team in a stronger East next year, the lottery system will benefit them. But it would've hurt them before, and it will hurt the bad teams like the Hornets used to be. We've escaped poverty, but those who might've been down there with us will have a much harder time doing so now.

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