Charlotte Hornets Playoff Rotation: What's Changing vs. Miami

Our long national nightmare is over -- the Charlotte Hornets are back in the NBA postseason.

For the first time since getting blown out by the Atlanta Hawks as the ten seed in the 2022 Play-In Tournament, the Hornets have earned another chance to win their way into the playoffs via the Play-In. The path will be difficult, as Charlotte will need to knock off the zombie Heat at home on Tuesday night and then win a road game in either Orlando or Philadelphia on Friday, but it is definitely manageable.

When the regular season ends and the postseason begins, NBA rotations shrink. Charles Lee has consistently trotted out 10 players in his nightly rotation with the minutes breakdown looking something like this in the Hornets' more meaningful games:

Starters

LaMelo Ball: 36 minutes
Kon Knueppel: 36 minutes
Brandon Miller: 34 minutes
Miles Bridges: 30 minutes
Moussa Diabate: 30 minutes

Reserves

Coby White: 20 minutes
Josh Green: 8 minutes
Sion James: 10 minutes
Grant Williams: 20 minutes
Ryan Kalkbrenner: 18 minutes

You can give or take a few minutes here or there depending on matchups (for example, Grant Williams played 25 minutes in Charlotte's March 28th loss to Philadelphia because he lined up as a small ball center against Joel Embiid), but this is a baseline for Lee's recent minutes allocations when he's had his full complement of players healthy in a close game.

When projecting Charlotte's playoff rotations, I wouldn't expect anything to change for Ball, Knueppel, or Miller. The Hornets will lean heavily on their trio of stars.

The same is true for both Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabate. Charlotte's starting lineup is the best five-man group in the NBA, and it would be surprising to see Charles Lee deviate from that successful group too much in a win-or-go-home contest.

How the Hornets allocate their bench minutes is the biggest question ahead of Tuesday Play-In Tournament game against the Heat. When Charlotte lost to Miami on March 6th, the closest thing we have to a full-strength meeting between these two teams, Charles Lee allocated his player's minutes this way:

Starters

LaMelo Ball: 33 minutes
Kon Knueppel: 34 minutes
Brandon Miller: 34 minutes
Miles Bridges: 28 minutes
Moussa Diabate: 31 minutes

Reserves

Coby White: 17 minutes
Sion James: 14 minutes
Josh Green: 14 minutes
Grant Williams: 19 minutes
Ryan Kalkbrenner: 17 minutes

This is more like what I expect to see on Tuesday night, with one specific change.

I believe that Charles Lee will tighten his rotations a bit, and we'll see less Sion James than we have in recent weeks. Josh Green is Lee's preferred Tyler Herro stopper among his bench options, meaning Green will receive an uptick in playing time in Charlotte's do-or-die game against Miami.

The Hornets need Coby White on the floor to pressure the rim and provide steady ball handling against the Heat's relentless defense, meaning he'll be the other guard to absorb Sion James' minutes in the Play-In.

I'd project Green to play between 18-20 minutes, and White to play between 22-25 with Sion checking in for short stints at the end of quarters to provide strong defense in short clock scenarios.

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