Cooper Flagg? The numbers say Kon Knueppel is the Rookie of the Year so far

Kon Knueppel — what more can you say?

Roughly halfway through his rookie season, Knueppel has met, and arguably exceeded, every reasonable expectation the Charlotte Hornets organization and its fan base could have had. He was Charlotte’s best player through the first quarter of the season while LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller were working their way back into the lineup.

Once they returned, Knueppel scaled down seamlessly into a third-option role without disrupting the offense or his own production. Over the past month, the Hornets have emerged as one of the best offensive teams in the league, and Knueppel has remained central to that level of scoring success.

That context made his latest milestone feel especially meaningful.

Knueppel became the fastest player in Charlotte Hornets franchise history to reach 800 career points. Even more telling, he is the fourth-fastest player since 2020 to reach that mark, trailing only Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, and Zion Williamson.

Banchero and Wembanyama both went on to win Rookie of the Year.

Given that company, it is difficult to understand why it feels like a foregone conclusion across major sportsbooks that Knueppel will not seriously contend for the award, with Cooper Flagg positioned as the clear favorite if he remains healthy.

When you dig into the numbers, it becomes clear Knueppel has had the stronger season through the first half of their respective rookie campaigns.

A rookie shooting season without precedent

Knueppel is producing at an elite level of efficiency and volume that is almost unheard of for a rookie NBA player. Through 42 career games, he has already made 143 three-pointers, the most by any player through their first 42 games by a wide margin. He is doing so while attempting 7.8 threes per game and converting 43.5% of them.

For historical context, Stephen Curry shot a slightly better percentage as a rookie at 43.7%, but he attempted roughly five threes per game and made about two.

More recent comparisons highlight just how rare Knueppel’s volume is. Jayson Tatum shot 43.4% from three as a rookie and Desmond Bane shot 43.2%, but both made fewer than two threes per game, with Tatum attempting around three and Bane around four.

Knueppel’s counting stats are equally impressive. He is averaging 19.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 48.8% from the field. His 61.3% effective field goal percentage ranks in the 90th percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass, and his player efficiency rating of 16.8 sits comfortably above league average. He is also converting 89.4% of his free throws and owns a strong 64.5% true shooting percentage.

From an advanced profile standpoint, Knueppel’s offensive output becomes even more striking. According to Cleaning the Glass, he ranks in the 85th percentile in usage among players at his position at 20.8% while ranking in the 91st percentile in points per shot attempt at 129.7. His assist percentage of 16.4% sits in the 81st percentile. He has been a high-usage, high-efficiency player all season for Charlotte.

According to B-Ball Index, Knueppel owns an overall shooting talent score of 1.10, ranking in the 94th percentile, and an overall shot-making efficiency score of 1.33, ranking in the 95th percentile.

Also, when Knueppel is on the floor, Charlotte’s effective field goal percentage jumps by 1.5%, which ranks in the 72nd percentile for his position. That is tangible, highly valuable offensive gravity.

The offensive gap

To be clear, this is not an argument that Flagg is a bad offensive player. The two are being asked to do very different things for their teams, and Flagg will likely develop into a high-level NBA star in time. At this moment, however, Knueppel is simply a far superior offensive player.

Flagg is averaging 111.2 points per shot attempt, which ranks in the 44th percentile at his position. His effective field goal percentage sits at 51.3%, ranking in the 46th percentile.

Most notably, Flagg has struggled as a shooter. He is converting just 17% of his corner threes, 32% of his non-corner threes and 29% overall from deep, all among the lower marks at his position.

In an offensively driven league, that shooting gap matters when evaluating the Rookie of the Year race.

Holding his own defensively

Knueppel is not winning Rookie of the Year because of his defense, but he is also not hurting his case on that end.

He knows where to be, plays with strength and understands Head Coach Charles Lee’s defensive scheme. His foul percentage of 2.7% ranks in the 78th percentile for his position, a strong indicator that he is not being overwhelmed defensively.

He owns a defensive rebounding percentage of 12.7% on opponent misses, ranking in the 74th percentile, and an offensive rebounding percentage in the 67th percentile on his team’s missed shots. That rebounding value matters and adds to his overall impact.

Knueppel is not a negative defender, and the idea that his defense should disqualify him from serious award consideration does not hold up.

V.J. Edgecombe deserves mention firmly in the third-place spot in the race, but at this point in the season there is a clear gap between Knueppel and the rest of the rookie class in terms of offensive value.

Knueppel has been a high-usage, high-efficiency player from day one, adjusted his role without sacrificing production and is one of the biggest reasons Charlotte has become one of the league’s most productive offenses in recent weeks.

Right now, Kon Knueppel has been the best rookie this season and should be the Rookie of the Year favorite.

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