How Many Wins Do the Hornets Need to Reach the Play-In or Top Six?

The Charlotte Hornets have turned their season completely around after getting out to a miserable 4-14 start. A month into the season, it felt like it was the same old, same old — injuries up and down the roster, poor defense, no depth, and losses piling up — a team barreling toward another appearance in the draft lottery.

Just before Christmas, the roster got healthy, found the right lineup, and boom! They won nine straight and ended up on the right side of the scoreboard in ten of the final eleven games heading into the All-Star break.

If the season were to end today, the Hornets would be in the Play-In Tournament as the No.9 seed and would face No. 10 Atlanta in the first round. With the way this group has played on both ends of the floor, it's hard to see a scenario (health aside) where they don't at least clinch a spot in the Play-In.

Dean Oliver, an analytics guy over at ESPN, recently broke down what every team needs to accomplish to clinch a Play-In spot or a top-six seed, avoiding the Play-In. It is important to note that these projections would give the team a 90% chance of clinching said seed.

These are the records that teams need to have to make the play-in or to achieve a top 6 seed with 90% confidence. pic.twitter.com/blfchxRRE3
— Dean Oliver (@DeanO_Lytics) February 13, 2026

Is a top-six seed really in the cards?

Feb 11, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller (24) drives to the basket against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

It's possible, but it shouldn't be the expectation. Winning ten of eleven is one thing. Winning 20 of 27 is another. The Hornets still have to face the Celtics (3X), Heat (2X), Knicks (2X), Houston, Cleveland, Orlando, and Philadelphia, among other contending teams. And let's not forget that the Hornets still have to get through three games without Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabaté for their role in the brawl against the Detroit Pistons last Monday.

Not making the Play-In would be a massive disappointment

Because of this recent stretch, the Hornets only have to win 13 of their last 27 games to get into the Play-In. They've created a ton of wiggle room, and they may need it if they fall back down to Earth. This mini disruption of the starting five could cause a slight setback, along with trying to find the right lineup combinations for the recently acquired Coby White. Still, with how highly efficient they have been on both ends of the floor, it would take a lot of unfortunate luck to not get in.

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