Utah Jazz's Most Likely NBA Lottery Outcome Isn't Pretty

With just a half-dozen games to go in their regular season slate, the Utah Jazz's projected standing in next month's NBA draft lottery is starting to become clearly defined with every passing day.

As the Sacramento Kings sit two games worse than the Jazz for the fourth-best odds for the number one pick in the lottery, while the Dallas Mavericks sit distantly behind them by three games with the sixth-best odds, the overwhelming expectation will be Utah claiming the fifth-best odds themselves— so long as everything holds to form to ride out the season.

There's some clear upside to the Jazz falling into that fifth-best slot in the lottery. The most important factor would be Utah's overwhelming probability of actually retaining their first-round pick in the first place.

Considering the OKC Thunder currently hold the Jazz's top-eight protected 2026 first-rounder, Utah would have to fall to ninth-overall or below in order for that selection to fall out of the Jazz's possession. At the fifth-best odds, the Thunder have just a 0.6% chance of that happening.

So for a Jazz season that's been revolving around the underlying implications of that draft pick and the required lineup manipulation to make it happen, walking away with the selection in their pocket would be a success, all things considered.

But, that's not to say that the Jazz's odds to end up with a high pick in this year's draft are extremely high in their favor.

How the Jazz's Lottery Turnout Might Be Worse Than Expected

When looking at the current landscape of the odds, the fifth-best odds would hold in the lottery for the Jazz. One more factor sticks out besides their chances to actually retain their pick: the likelihood, or lack thereof, of their pick actually staying at five.

In reality, at the fifth-best odds on the board, the Jazz would only have an impressively low 2.2% chance to actually stay at that selection. There's even a greater chance that Utah lands the eighth pick (8.7%) than they are to remain at their actual placement in the reverse standings at five.

2026 NBA Draft Lottery odds, via Tankathon.com (as of April 1st, 2026) | Tankathon.com

Because the Jazz have nine teams slotted behind them by not having odds in the top four, it leaves nine teams behind with the chance to jump them, and it just takes one to make that leap before Utah becomes victim to dropping because of it.

There is upside to be had in that same spot in the lottery as well. The Jazz would have a combined 42.1% chance to move up from their fifth-best slot to four or better, which would mark the highest selection Utah has made in a draft since selecting Enes Kanter at third overall in 2011. Especially in as strong of a draft class like this year’s, that jump would come at pretty convenient timing.

Of course, that'd be an extremely ideal scenario for the Jazz and everyone involved, but based on pure probability, there's an even greater chance that Utah ends up moving down to picks six through eight, which stands at 55.0%. And of any pick to have the greatest chance of ending up in the Jazz's hands, it's at seventh with a nearly 27% chance.

Truly, the Jazz are no stranger to falling victim to lottery misfortune. Utah has historically never moved up to a top-two pick in franchise history, and even just last year, saw their odds at landing the number-one pick drop all the way down to their worst-case scenario to the fifth-overall pick.

Feb 6, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; From left to right, Utah Jazz general manager Justin Zanik, CEO Danny Ainge, owner Ryan Smith and head coach Will Hardy sit court side before the game between the Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

This year, the Jazz can only hope for a better outcome than the lottery night nightmare that took place last May. But the numbers show that Utah could very well be in for another drop this time around, if unable to strike gold on that 44.3% to stay within the top five.