Every Kings' Draft Lottery Outcome, Ranked by Probability

The May 10 NBA Draft lottery draw is officially less than a week away, as much of the Sacramento Kings fanbase is preparing for some ping pong balls to determine their sanity. After reaching 60 losses for just the second time in franchise history, the Kings desperately need to catch a break this summer, and getting lucky in the draft lottery is the best way to do so.

With an 11.5% chance to land the first-overall pick and a 45.2% chance to jump into the top four, the Kings need some good fortune on May 10. Here is a look at every possibility for Sacramento in the draft lottery, ranked by the probability for each pick.

9. Pick 9: 0.6%

While the Kings' worst-case scenario on May 10 is to fall to the ninth overall pick, there is a very small chance of doing so. The scenario of the Kings falling to nine means that four teams behind them in the lottery would jump into the top four. Of course, there is as small a chance of that happening as it sounds.

Sacramento can't fall further than 9th in this year's draft.

Not all of these players have declared for the 2026 NBA Draft yet, but it's more than likely that one of these players will become a King in June:

AJ Dybantsa
Darryn Peterson
Cameron Boozer
Caleb Wilson
Darius Acuff…
— Frankie Cartoscelli (@FCartoscelli3) April 20, 2026

Despite this being a dreadful scenario for the Kings, the top-nine prospects in this year's draft are all impressive.

8. Pick 5: 2.0%

Despite the Kings holding the fifth spot in the lottery, there is just a 2% chance of them actually landing the fifth overall pick. For this to happen, just one team behind them in the lottery would need to jump into the top four.

With a clear-cut top-four in this class, landing the fifth pick would feel like a punch in the gut. Still, though they would be able to land a difference-maker in this spot, just not one of the "elite" prospects.

7. Pick 8: 8.5%

Fortunately, the Kings' second-worst outcome is also a fairly low chance. The Kings have a less than 9% chance of falling three spots to the eighth overall pick. This would still be a disappointing outcome for the Kings after their 60-loss season, but in a loaded draft class, any of the top-eight prospects could be a difference-maker.

6. Pick 4: 11.0%

Here is their first shot at jumping into the top four. Of course, getting a top-four pick is the big prize of the May 10 lottery, and this spot would guarantee them a franchise cornerstone to build around. The Kings most recently drafted Keegan Murray fourth overall in 2022.

Feb 10, 2026; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) looks on against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Watsco Center. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Despite having just an 11% chance of jumping one spot to fourth overall, this scenario would likely guarantee them the UNC Tar Heels product, Caleb Wilson. While this is one of the less likely outcomes, the Kings would be very happy with jumping up one spot in the lottery.

5. Pick 3: 11.2%

The Kings have very similar odds of moving up two spots into the third pick than they do jumping up to four, with a slim 11.2% chance of moving to the end of the highly coveted top three.

As odd as it sounds, the Kings have never drafted third overall in the Sacramento era. This would be a great year to finally get the third pick, guaranteeing them one of the "big three" prospects.

4. Pick 2: 11.4%

Very similar to picks No. 3 and No. 4, the Kings have about an 11% chance at the second-overall pick. Obviously, this would guarantee the Kings one of the top-three prospects, but it would also give them a choice of who they prefer.

The Kings most recently drafted Marvin Bagley III second overall in 2018—their only time holding that pick in the Sacramento era.

3. Pick 1: 11.5%

Jumping four spots to the first-overall pick is obviously the ultimate goal on May 10, and it being Sacramento's third-most likely outcome is certainly a good sign. Sure, they have just an 11.5% chance of doing so, but all it takes is some luck.

Mar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) looks on during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Marriott Center. | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

This would give the Kings a chance to select their choice of AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, or Darryn Peterson, securing a franchise cornerstone and potential future MVP candidate as the ultimate consolation after such a disastrous season.

2. Pick 6: 18.2%

Now, back to reality. The Kings' odds spike to actually fall one spot in the lottery, with the sixth-overall pick being their second-most likely scenario. Obviously, jumping into the top four is ideal, but the sixth pick is not a bad spot to be.

This spot gives the Kings a pick of their next franchise point guard, with two of Darius Acuff, Kingston Flemings, or Keaton Wagler guaranteed to be on the board.

1. Pick 7: 25.5%

Unfortunately for the Kings, their most likely scenario, by a wide margin, is dropping two spots to the seventh pick. One in every four drawings would result in the Kings landing the seventh-overall pick.

After such a poor season, landing the seventh pick would be a disappointment, but they would still have a shot at a legitimate difference-maker in this position. They would still be guaranteed one of Acuff, Flemings, or Wagler, making it highly likely that they will ultimately land one of them come June 23.

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