Why the Kings' Worst-Case Draft Scenario Is Still Positive

With the Sacramento Kings losing the tiebreaker to the Utah Jazz, they officially hold the fifth spot in the 2026 NBA Draft lottery. This gives them an 11.5% chance to land the first-overall pick and a 45.2% chance to secure a top-four pick, but on the flip side, they have a slim 0.6% chance of falling to ninth.

Of course, it would be a disaster if the Kings somehow fell all the way to the ninth pick after a dreadful 22-60 season, but on the bright side, it might not actually be that bad. Yes, the Kings want as high a pick as possible, but even if they fell to ninth, they will get a good prospect.

Kings' potential draftees

Feb 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Mikel Brown Jr. (0) looks on during the second half against the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Kings are locked into the top-nine of the draft lottery. That means, they are guaranteed one of the following prospects:

AJ Dybantsa, Forward, BYU
Darryn Peterson, Guard, Kansas
Cameron Boozer, Forward, Duke
Caleb Wilson, Forward, North Carolina
Kingston Flemings, Guard, Houston
Darius Acuff Jr., Guard, Arkansas
Keaton Wagler, Guard, Illinois
Mikel Brown Jr., Guard, Louisville
Brayden Burries, Guard, Arizona
Nate Ament, Forward, Tennessee
Labaron Philon Jr., Guard, Alabama

These are Tankathon's top 11 prospects in this year's draft, and for a class expected to be one of the best in a long time, the Kings should be set on landing a high-level player this summer.

Ideally, the Kings land Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson, but even if they get unlucky and fall to the eighth or ninth pick, they know they are guaranteed a difference-maker. Whether it be Flemings, Acuff Jr., Wagler, or Brown Jr., one of those high-level guards is set to fall outside of the top seven, with other guys like Burries, Ament, and Philon Jr. likely on the board as well.

Sacramento can't fall further than 9th in this year's draft.

Not all of these players have declared for the 2026 NBA Draft yet, but it's more than likely that one of these players will become a King in June:

AJ Dybantsa
Darryn Peterson
Cameron Boozer
Caleb Wilson
Darius Acuff…
— Frankie Cartoscelli (@FCartoscelli3) April 20, 2026

Of course, there is just a 0.8% chance that the Kings fall to the ninth pick, but the most likely scenario result is actually them falling to seventh. The Kings have 25.5% chance of landing the seventh pick and an 18.2% chance of getting the sixth. We can expect the Kings to pick in this range, which still gives them the opportunity at a high-level prospect.

Kings general manager Scott Perry made it clear that they will "always look to draft best player available or best talent" heading into this offseason, which is a great sign that they will land the prospect they need to build around moving forward.

Regardless of what happens in the lottery, even though we can hope for the best, the Kings' future should be in good hands.

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